Bill's momentum keeps on rolling, right into the playoffs

First of all, I guess everyone is saying this but I might as well too: rest in peace Stu Scott.  I'd be lying if I said I thought he was the greatest, or if I tried to pretend like I never wrote anything mean about him on this blog.  But when push comes to shove, he was an entertaining dude who made sports fun.  That's all that really matters.

With that out of the way, let's get back to the important task of hating everything.  I'll comment more about the Hall of Fame election next week, and how dumb it is that Piazza and Bagwell are still not and (and not even good bets to make it next year--watch the voters only put in Griffey and no one else).

For now, though, let's get back to sports gambling savant Bill Simmons, who has a well-refined manifesto that is perfectly internally consistent, and who is apt at spotting a Vegas line that is a point too high or too low.  I lost track of his total numbers, but when we last left him a month ago, I had him at 59-61 plus some pushes.  He claimed at the end of last week's wild card round picks that he finished the regular season at 101-93 (after subtracting out the perfect 58-0 score he gave himself for the time he was suspended).  Something went awry in there, because at that time there were only four regular season weeks left for the NFL, and he has himself having picked roughly 75 games, or roughly 19 per week.  I dunno.  I'm not going to check his work, I'm just going to reiterate that he's a fucking dumbshit, and let him back that up as I analyze his wild card picks below.  He did the never-entertaining "Things about both teams that could make you regret picking them" format, and I'm commenting just on his logic for the teams that ended up winning, because, come on, isn't it great that when he publishes a set of picks in that format he's spoon feeding us a well-developed line of idiotic thinking that, if he followed it while placing bets, could have him going 0-for on the week?

He went 1-3 against the spread and 2-2 straight up.  THANKS FOR THE FREE MONEY, VEGAS!

PANTHERS (-6.5) over Cardinals

Obviously the only one he got right against the spread.

Why You Eventually Regretted Taking the Panthers: You laid nearly a touchdown with a lame division champ that went 64 days between wins. 

Against a team starting Ryan Lindley on the road.  (Really, I could just copy and paste that sentence for all of his comments about this game, but I'll get creative and actually mention other stuff as well.)

You backed a 7-8-1 team with the 25th DVOA over an 11-5 team with the 22nd overall DVOA. 

Don't those rankings show that the Cardinals were even more flagrant overachievers than the Panthers?  The Panthers probably would have been a 4-12 team in most other divisions, but cripes, the Cardinals were really only a 5-11 or 6-10 team themselves.  At least the Panthers didn't really have an identity crisis.  I'm sure they're aware their season sucked.

You got too carried away with an end-of-the-season winning streak over four teams that finished a combined 22-42. 

I don't think anyone who took the Panthers was really that enthralled with that winning streak.  But they might have been pretty interested in the way the Cardinals fell apart in November and December.

You ignored an old-school Playoff Manifesto Rule: 

ALERT ALERT TOP SECRET MANIFESTO GENIUS TIP AHEAD

“When In Doubt, Check the Coaching Match-ups” (Rivera vs. President-Elect Arians). 

Arians is (supposedly) really good (with the caveat that he doesn't have a huge body of work).  Rivera is definitely nothing special, but he's at least average.  I'm not sure how any of that accounts for Cam Newton vs. Ryan Lindley.

You didn’t see Barnwell’s nugget about how three of the other four “Worst QBs To Start A Playoff Game Since 1972” won those games. 

Oh, Bill has a little Peter King in him these days!  So good to be receiving nuggets from both of them!  I don't know any other method of conveyance of factoids I prefer to nuggets.

You spent too much time worrying about Arizona scoring and not enough time wondering what would happen in a 13-10 game if Cam made one dumb mistake. 

What?  I'm no TMQ, but that's a little hyperspecific for me for the purpose of betting.  "Sure, Newton is a million times better than Ryan fucking Lindley, and the Cardinals are coming apart at the seams, BUT WHAT IF IT'S 13-10 AND NEWTON THROWS A PICK SIX ON 3RD AND 2 FROM THE ARIZONA 27 WITH 4:25 REMAINING?"

Worst of all, you backed the wrong Wonk Team — you thought it was Carolina when it was really Arizona all along.

WONK TEAM!  ANOTHER MANIFESTO WEIRD TRICK THAT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MOMS USE TO MAKE THOUSANDS PER WEEK ON THE INTERNET!  "Wonk team" is about as cool as "hoops fan nerdgasm."  Don't say either unless you're super intoxicated or trying to annoy someone.

The Pick: Panthers 23, Cardinals 7

Not bad.  And it's all way, way, way downhill from here.

STEELERS (-3.5) over Ravens

Why You Eventually Regretted Taking the Ravens: You ignored the probability of Baltimore’s putrid secondary getting overpowered by the NFL’s most dangerous passing attack. 

Yeah, maybe Baltimore's secondary wasn't exactly full of A-listers, but they still ended up middle of the pack in most pass defense categories (17th and yards/attempt allowed, 19th in QB rating allowed).  This might have something to do with the fact that they tied for 2nd in sacks.  Hmmm, anyone see Saturday night's game?  Anyone happen to remember if Roethlisberger got his ass handed to himself like seven or eight times?

You mistakenly thought the weather might cripple Pittsburgh’s offense. 

Huh?

You forgot that the Lewis era officially died in Baltimore when Ed Reed left. 

"I can't possibly pick this 10-6 team that split its two regular season games against their upcoming opponent!  They had two really old HOFers on their team as of two seasons ago, and now they have zero old HOFers!"

You forgot that Baltimore’s offensive line was all kinds of banged up, and that Pittsburgh rushes the passer pretty well. 

Pittsburgh's offensive line was a disaster most of the year, and against the Ravens.  Pittsburgh also finished the season 26th in sacks.

You forgot how scary it was to wager against Big Ben in Big Games unless he’s going against Tim Tebow during the final 15 minutes of Fourth and God. 

I get that Roethlisberger has a good playoff career record (10-4 before this game), but he's also only got 21 TDs against 19 picks in those games, and an 83.3 rating.  His defense has bailed him out big time in some important games, notably Super Bowl XL against the Seahawks, and the 2008 and 2010 AFC championship games.  I think Tebow himself could have probably won all three of those games with the support Roethlisberger got.

You forgot that the Ravens went 4-0 against the NFC South (congratulations!) 

More damning--that, or the fact that the Steelers managed to lose to the Buccaneers at home?

and or that they beat one above-.500 team all season (in Week 2, no less). 

Fair point, but that team was the Steelers.

You forgot about Pittsburgh’s many playmakers, 

With Bell sitting, that list includes Antonio Brown and.... uh....

and you definitely forgot about the great Antonio Brown. 

Who had an amazing highlight-reel game on Sunday Night Football in week 17.  Easy to forget about that.

You forgot that Pittsburgh’s destiny might be taking out Manning on the road as heavy underdogs again, just like it did nine years ago. 

Yeah!  Destiny!  That's how gambling works!

Most of all, you forgot about karma. Was there a better karmic ending to this 2014 Ravens season then “Destroyed by their most hated rival in Round 1?” Of course not.

WHO SAYS NO

The Pick: Pittsburgh 37, Baltimore 24

Almost.

Bengals (+4) over COLTS

Given the way he journalistically fellates Luck (just like pretty much everyone else who writes about the NFL), this pick shocked me.  Was he going for THE DREADED DOUBLE REVERSE JINX to prevent THE FACKIN' PATS from having to face Luck if the Steelers and Colts had both won?  We may never know, but the answer is yes.  I hope the Ravens beat the Patriots by 50 this weekend.

Why You Eventually Regretted Taking the Colts: You forgot that the Colts were 2014’s Good Bad Team; they got destroyed three times in the last nine weeks. 

Not really.  Their game against New England wasn't really an ass kicking.  The Dallas game definitely was, and maybe Pittsburgh too, but the week before the Pittsburgh game they beat the Bengals 27-0, so yeah.

You forgot that Ahmad Bradshaw’s injury created the NFL’s most pathetic running back crew. 

It was pretty crappy even with Bradshaw.  I don't really think Chuck Pagano shit himself when Bradshaw went down, at least not to the same extent Mike Tomlin almost surely did when Bell went down.

You forgot that New England and Dallas ran the ball down Indy’s throat … and Jeremy Hill could do it, too. 

IN THEORY A RB COULD HAVE A GOOD GAME AGAINST THEM!  DIDN'T SEE THAT ONE COMING DID YOU??!?!!  

You forgot about the 3.3 percent chance that Jim Irsay would wander onto the field like Shooter in Hoosiers. 

*crickets*  *tumbleweed*

You forgot that Gio Bernard turned into a frightening third-down back. 

Who got way worse from his rookie year to his second year, always a sign of a dangerous player!

You forgot about A.J. Green’s Ewing Theory potential as well as the resulting “Nobody Believes In Us” potential. 

BRILLIANT

You forgot that Luck throws it up for grabs too much, 

Very true, and also the meanest thing I think I've heard anyone say about Luck in the last five months.  Seriously, the guy gets the kid gloves treatment worse than Jeter did this past summer.

and that Cincy’s excellent secondary loves picking off dumb passes. 

Other secondaries don't do that!  Only Cincy's!

You forgot that Indy’s home-field “advantage” just hadn’t been overpowering, 

Sure, only 19-5 since Luck arrived in 2012.

and that four favorites never cover in Round 1. 

That's a really good point.  Maybe I'll put my money on the Ravens and Lions.

You forgot that Cincy’s overall roster was just better than Indy’s roster. 

Correct.  Also like the 8th most important thing to consider when predicting the winner of a single playoff game.

You forgot that Matt Ryan, Peyton Manning and Randall Cunningham also lost THEIR first three playoff games. 

OH NO!  IF MATTY ICE AND HIS MEDIOCRITY COULDN'T DO IT, THERE'S NO WAY LUCK CAN EITHER!

You forgot that Dalton could destroy Cincy’s postseason without necessarily doing it this weekend.

That's a really good point, if Cincy had won this game, they'd still be playing this coming weekend.  Ppl forget that.

The Pick: Cincinnati 23, Indianapolis 20

Whiffffffffffffffffffffffffffff

COWBOYS (-7) over Lions

THIS SPREAD IS TWO POINTS TOO LOW!  EASY MONEY!

Why You Eventually Regretted Taking the Cowboys: Tony Romo. Jason Garrett. Tony Romo AND Jason Garrett. 

Huh?  I know they don't have the best playoff reputation or anything, but Detroit hasn't won a playoff game in decades.

You ignored how Dallas’s biggest strength (running the ball) conflicted with Detroit’s biggest strength (stopping the run). 

Good defense beats good offense, the team with the most playmakers who make plays always wins, and cold coach = victory.  Science.

You laid a touchdown with a crummy defense against a playoff team with multiple big-play weapons. 

That finished 19th in total offense and 22nd in points per game, while playing home games in a dome and with a mostly healthy Calvin Johnson.

You forgot about Megatron. 

No one forgot about Megatron.

You forgot it was Golden Tate’s destiny to have a Revenge Game in Seattle in Round 2. 

Maybe he can still be cut by the Lions and picked up by the Panthers?  It's his destiny!

You forgot that you were backing Jerry Jones in the playoffs, 

Haha, that's like the Romo + Garrett point but on super moron steroids.

that Dallas crowds sucked this season, 

Most NFL crowds suck these days.  The BEANTOWN FAITHFUL weren't exactly all smiles and support back when the Pats looked like assholes in September and early October.

that a worn-down DeMarco Murray had carried the ball 392 times already. 

He went for 100 yards on 20 carries in week 17.  I think it's pretty likely he wears down by, like, 2018.  I don't think it was very likely he'd wear down between week 17 and the wild card round.

You forgot how sad Troy Aikman sounds when he’s announcing a big Cowboys loss. 

*another tumbleweed*  *coyote howls*

You teased the Panthers and Cowboys and stupidly forgot to hedge with Lions +7. 

You're terrible at gambling.  Shut up.

You got a little too excited about Round 2: Romo vs. Rodgers in the Ice Bowl 2.0. 

THAT'S TOTALLY WHAT THEY SHOULD CALL IT, IT'LL BE JUST LIKE THE FIRST ONE

You forgot about Stafford’s Back Door cover potential. 

...

And you forgot that (a) Suh’s appeal getting reversed, 

That was odd.

(b) Suh shutting down Dallas’s run game as part of Detroit’s upset victory in Round 1, then (c) Suh signing with the New York Giants in March would be a classic under-25 Cowboys fan trifecta.

THAT'S why it made sense to pick the Lions.  Because Suh might leave Detroit via free agency this spring.

The Pick: Cowboys 33, Lions 14

But the Detroit run defense vs. the Cowboys run offense!  Strength vs. strength!  Oh wait, that's actually how it played out (73 rushing yards for Dallas).  Hmm.  Shit.  This looks kind of dumb when I mock him for explaining why Dallas might not cover, and then they don't even though they win the game.  Maybe when underdogs cover but lose, I should comment on his analysis for the team that COVERED, not the team that won.  Damn.  Well, I'll do it differently for the divisional games.  Go Ravens!

Bill's Guide to Gambling (alternate title: How to Lose Money By Being Stupid), Part 3 of 3

Whoa, I kind of took a break there.  I figured that Bill was on a break (check his Instagram for awesome pictures of him golfing!  Actually maybe don't bother), so I might as well take one too.  Here's what I learned: blogging is fun.  Let's finish Bill's comprehensive gambling guide, since he's back from suspension tomorrow.

I'd like to say for sure that even if I were hired to work at Grantland like Bill Barnwell (who did a slightly-less-awful-than-Simmons job of making picks in Bill's absence), I wouldn't turn into a Simmons disciple, but I can't, because you literally couldn't pay me to work at Grantland.  At every salary level reasonably able to be offered by a somewhat popular sports website owned by a big media company, I would sooner panhandle than work for anything associated with ESPN.  But I won't say "You couldn't pay me enough" to work there.  Because you know what?  For $1,000,000 per second, I will happily sell my soul to Disney.  No problem.  Just give me the contract.

OK, back to Simmons.  Underdogs went 13-16-1 since my last post, making them 44-43 on the year.  So remind me--is it the year of the dog?

Rule: Don’t forget — it’s the Year of the Dog!!!

Ohmygod it is!  It's the year of the dog!!!!!!

Write it down! YEAR OF THE DOG!!!!!!!!! Got it?

I literally did!  I literally just did!!!!  Where is my free money?!?!?!?!?!

Before we hit the rest of the Week 1 picks, I wanted to mention my “circle” theory 

About as useful as my "Larry B has a huge penis" theory.

that I keep bringing up in podcasts but haven’t properly explained in print. 

Ah, THAT'S the problem with whatever half-baked waste of pixels he's about to spew--it hasn't been explained in PRINT.  Finally!

We don’t have legitimate NFL juggernauts along the lines of the early-’90s Cowboys anymore; the Salary Cap Era makes it impossible. 

This is true.  He should have just ended the article right here.

By January, every playoff team just hopes they became one of the seven or eight contenders with a chance to win the Super Bowl.

This is not true.  He should have ended the article back there.  Sure, some pretty good teams (2011 Giants, 2012 Ravens) just want to hang around for as long as they can and sometimes it works out.  Then there are really awesome teams (2012 Broncos) that flat out fall apart when the chips are down, and specifically, fall apart because they fail to execute, not because "the league has too much parity boo hoo!"  This being a Simmons article, though, I suppose the oversimplification of something fairly complex is to be expected.  TEN NBA TEAMS WILL CONTRACT BY 2012.  WHO SAYS NO.

Think of it this way: You always leave an NBA season saying, 

Think of it this way: if you are writing a guide to gambling on the NFL, what's the first thing you want to do?  Yes, that's right, you took the words right out of my brain: you start babbling about the NBA.

“The best team clearly won,” with very few exceptions (2013 and 1988 being the most recent). 

Even for Bill, this is staggeringly retarded.  I'm not even sure I want to go into explaining all the times between 1988 and 2013 that the "clear" "best team" did not win, because I want to go to bed before 4 AM.  The 2011 Mavericks were clearly better than the Spurs, Bulls and Heat?  The 2007 Spurs were clearly better than the Mavericks and Suns?  The 2006 Heat, with all of their 52 wins, were clearly better than the Pistons or Spurs?  And so on and so on and so on, perhaps most glaringly demonstrated by the 1995 Rockets, who went 47-35 and finished 6th in the West (Hakeem started 72 games, by the way, so it's not like they were hampered by an injury to their HOFer), but who were apparently "clearly" the best team in the league.  Holy dinosaur shit, this is bad, even for Bill.  

You always leave an NFL season saying, “One of the best teams caught a few breaks, took care of business and deserved to win.” 

Back to being right, except you can replace "an NFL" with "a sports season of any kind at pretty much any level."

Most of it makes sense, but not all of it: the Helmet Catch, 

IT'S NAWT FAY-UHHHHH

Rahim Moore, 

Take it from this Broncos fan: it makes perfect sense.  Moore was a 2nd year safety who was on the team for his hitting and run support, not his coverage.  He never should have been on the field for that play.  It's really not particularly surprising that he got beat deep on that play.  Flacco threw that pass like 90 yards in the air.

Kyle Williams, 

The dude fumbled a couple of times.  He's not currently on an NFL roster.  It's not like he was revered for his non-fumbling ways prior to that NFC championship game.  It was chilly and damp that evening.  This is not nonsensical in any way.

Santonio Holmes dragging his feet … 

You mean an awesome athlete make a great catch?  THE BASKETBALL EQUIVALENT OF THIS WOULD NEVER HAPPEN, EXCEPT IN 2013 AND 1988 (I didn't mention it earlier, but of course him listing that year is a dig at the Lakers because of course it is; they won more games than anyone in the NBA that year but were CLEARLY NAWT THE BEST TEAM even though they were defending champions).  THE BASKETBALL ARIZONA CARDINALS WIN THAT SUPER BOWL 10 TIMES OUT OF 10. 

I mean, in the words of Tony D’Amato, it really is a game of inches.

Someone give this man a Pulitzer.  How many seconds do you think he spent on that line?  Four?  Zero?  Did his editor add it for him, just to see if anyone would notice? 

So you want to break into that January circle. Seven contenders usually do it, then there’s always that eighth late bloomer/sleeper/surprise team that unexpectedly crashes the party. 

No.  No.  That's not at all an accurate characterization of how the NFL playoffs work.  Fuck off and die, you hack.  

We’ll call that team the Wonk Team, 

THAT'S A BUZZWORD PEOPLE SOMETIMES USE!  VERTICAL INTEGRATION MACHINE AT WORK!

since things always get wonky as soon as the Wonk Team reveals itself. 

2013's Wonk Team: the Decatur Staleys!  Watch out, NFL!

Check out how the last seven seasons played out. (Teams got two asterisks if they won the Super Bowl and one asterisk if they lost the Super Bowl.)

2013: Denver (13-3, alpha dog),* Seattle (13-3),** New England (12-4), San Francisco (12-4), Carolina (12-4), New Orleans (11-5), Cincy (11-5), San Diego (Wonk Team).

I hate that I'm even engaging on this, but Kansas City was clearly the wonk team, and they lost their first playoff game, because they weren't that good.  That is a common characteristic of what I'm assuming Bill calls "wonk teams," and just because the GREATRIOTS lost a Super Bowl to a #6 seed mediocre Giants team seven years ago, now all of a sudden we get to read about how wonk teams always gum up the works.  Sure, Seattle and Denver were pretty clearly the best teams in the NFL last year, and they met in the Super Bowl, BUT WHAT ABOUT THE WONKY CHARGERS?

2012: Denver (13-3, alpha dog), Atlanta (13-3), New England (12-4), Houston (12-4), San Francisco (11-4-1),* Seattle (11-5), Green Bay (11-5), Baltimore (Wonk Team).**

Hey, look at that!  The division champion Ravens, who kicked the shit out of the Patriots in New England after squeaking by the Broncos, just happen to be a Wonk Team (tm)(patent pending).  What a surprise!

2011: Green Bay (15-1, alpha dog), New England (13-3),* New Orleans (13-3), San Francisco (13-3), Baltimore (12-4), Pittsburgh (12-4), Houston (10-6), NY Giants (Wonk Team).**

Same for the 2011 division champion Giants, who were obviously a wonk team, while the terrible mediocre Texans were not!  Funny how that works!  I can't even go through the rest of this list.  If you want to develop brainrot, by all means, be my guest.

2010: New England (14-2, alpha dog), Atlanta (13-3), Pittsburgh (12-4),* Baltimore (12-4), New Orleans (11-5), NY Jets (11-5), Chicago (11-5), Green Bay (Wonk Team).**

2009: Indy (14-2, alpha dog),* New Orleans (13-3),** San Diego (13-3), Minnesota (12-4), Dallas (11-5), Green Bay (11-5), Arizona (10-6), NY Jets (Wonk Team).

2008: Tennessee (13-3, alpha dog), Carolina (12-4), Pittsburgh (12-4),** NY Giants (12-4), Indy (12-4), Baltimore (11-5), Philly (9-6-1), Arizona (Wonk Team).*

2007: New England (16-0, alpha dog),* Green Bay (13-3), Dallas (13-3), Indy (13-3), San Diego (11-5), Jacksonville (11-5), Seattle (10-6), NY Giants (Wonk Team).**

From 2007 through 2013, the alpha dog made three Super Bowls and lost all three … and the Wonk Team won four Super Bowls and lost a fifth. That makes no sense whatsoever, 

Sure, the teams that won the Super Bowl were good teams that maybe dropped a couple regular season games they shouldn't have, but had great QBs (some would say ELITE in the case of one Joe Flacco) and played their best during the playoffs.  This makes no sense, if you're fucking stupid.  If you have an IQ over 70 it's pretty unsurprising.  QUICK, BRING UP ANOTHER HALF BAKED THEORY THAT'S PATENTLY IDIOTIC!  IT MIGHT SAVE THIS IDEA!  

but it also makes SOME sense if you believe that (a) the “Nobody Believes In Us” factor matters way more than we realize, 

/finger gun to the head blowing own brains out motion

and (b) the NFL playoffs are a freaking crapshoot.

They are.  Like the playoffs in any American pro sport.  Since I am an AMERICUNN I love me some high stakes playoff drama, but I have to admit, European soccer (for all its insufferable fans and dumb idiosyncrasies) kind of has a good thing going with the whole no playoffs thing.  Really, do we need to keep letting 86 win MLB wild card teams win the World Series?

Here’s what my 2014 circle looks like: I’m locking down Seattle (my 2014 guess: 14-2), New England (12-4), Denver (12-4), San Diego (11-5), New Orleans (11-5) and Cincy (11-5) as my six true contenders. 

Disappointingly reasonable guesses, even if the Saints look crappy and the Bengals suddenly look shaky.  I can't believe the damn Patriots got their act together yet again.  I hope Brady throws a 99 yard pick six that costs them a playoff berth in week 17.

The seventh contender: the NFC North champ (Green Bay or Chicago are both going 10-6 and it will come down to the 17th tiebreaker). And for the Wonk Team, let’s go with either Green Bay (if it’s a wild card) or A Team Coached By A Harbaugh Brother. That’s right, San Francisco and Baltimore — I’m looking at one of you to get your wonk on.

By which he means, both of those teams are good, so TRY NOT TO SHIT YOUR PANTS if one of them does well in the playoffs, because HOLY SHIT NO ONE BELIEVES IN US EXCEPT EVERY PUNDIT WHO BELIEVES IN EVERY TEAM ON A WEEK TO WEEK BASIS.

One more note: I don’t think San Francisco AND Green Bay will make the playoffs. 

They will.

At gunpoint, I’d say Green Bay is in, San Fran is out … and Baltimore will be the Wonk Team. My other three playoff teams: Tampa, Indy and Philly. So there you go.

I can't dump on him too hard because so much of this is actually somewhat reasonable, but Jesus, the Bucs?  Why?  The Lovie Smith factor?  Mike Glennon?  Hard to understand what he was going for there, until you realize he has his head up his own ass most of the time.

Why didn’t I decide on a Wonk Team to win it all? 

Because wonk teams don't exist?  Because it's idiotic to say a 9-7 team will win the Super Bowl?  It doesn't matter, no one gives a shit about your consistently shitty predictions?

I believe the Seahawks are talented enough and hungry enough to become our third back-to-back champs since 1994. 

How he managed to not make the cutoff 1999, and point out that only New England has repeated since then, is beyond me.  Maybe he actually is changing.

Unlike so many other defending champs, they didn’t lose three or four key free agents; they didn’t get fleeced of their slightly overqualified assistant coaches; they didn’t have to overpay any of their Super Bowl heroes; and they actually might be more explosive than last season because of Russell Wilson (edging closer and closer to his prime) and Percy Harvin (finally healthy). 

Meh, mostly reasonable, but after 6 weeks, it looks like Wilson is kind of bumping against his ceiling already, the defense is still great but no longer devastating, and Harvin isn't a huge difference maker.

They have the best home-field advantage in any sport. 

#hottaek!  Not that it's a dumb taek, it's just 1) been said like 50,000 times in the last 5 years by everyone, and 2) every good team has a good homefield advantage; that Seattle's seems to be a little bit better than most really isn't a "win the Super Bowl" kind of difference maker.

And best of all, everyone writes off defending champs for all the reasons mentioned earlier — we just assume the NFL is too much of a crapshoot, and that you’re never getting that lucky twice.

JUST LIKE EVERYONE WROTE OFF THE 1987-1988 LAKERS, WHO WERE OBVIOUSLY NOT THE BEST TEAM IN THE NBA, EVEN THOUGH THEY LOST NO ONE IMPORTANT FROM THE PREVIOUS SEASON AND WON MORE GAMES THAN ANYONE IN THE REGULAR SEASON. 

You know what? That’s awesome for the Seahawks. In a weird way, they’re almost the “Nobody Believes In Us” champs. 

This is the stupidest line in this whole column; pundits and fans everywhere picked the Seahawks to repeat.  But Bill has decided that didn't happen, with no evidence to support this contrarian position presented, because it fits better with his narrative.  Bill is truly a dickhead.

I have them beating my beloved Patriots in the Super Bowl, followed by four straight months of my dad complaining, “I can’t believe Pete F​-​-​-ing Carroll just beat us in the Super Bowl.”

If the Patriots make it to the Super Bowl, I will stop paying attention to sports forever.  Don't let me down, rest of the AFC.  I kind of like sports.

More from Barnwell/Simmons later.

Attention readers:

If you 1) have ever watched, or are now watching, the NFL draft combine OR 2) think that someone's 40 time is sports news that should be reported by people paid to report sports news (I mean, reported as a standalone story--I can tolerate the fact that combine results are eventually aggregated in full profiles of potential draftees), please immediately throw yourself down a flight of stairs.  Thank you.

ThMTMQR: Roman numerals are comedy gold

Hope you've got enough room in your grave to roll over, George Carlin.

Get out the old photo albums, Harbaugh clan. It's XII days 'til kickoff of Super Bowl XLVII, scheduled for VI:XXIII Eastern on February III. 

Douchechills.

And Bill Belichick, was he feeling OK? Three times he had the New England offense -- the NFL's top-scoring offense -- punt in Baltimore territory. Belichick punted on fourth-and-9 from the Baltimore 35, fourth-and-2 from the Baltimore 45 and fourth-and-8 from the Baltimore 34. Two of these punts -- of the kind TMQ calls Preposterous Punts -- were followed by the Ravens marching the other way for touchdowns. Clearly the football gods waxed wroth to see Belichick, of all coaches, punt in opposition territory.

Wind was a big element in the game, and Belichick may have been overthinking by trying to force his opponent to punt back into the wind -- instead of just leaving the league's top offense on the field. 

I believe what you're referring to is called "thinking," not "overthinking," when your opponent won the previous week pretty much entirely because of their ability to throw the deep ball and the wind is now gusting to 30 mph. But I agree, every punt that has ever been punted is worse than Jesus being nailed to his cross.

Ray Lewis performed so-so -- he was absolutely crushed by Dan Connolly on a long screen gain by Welker. But Lewis wanted it bad, and his teammates fed off that energy. 

Remember this, it will come up again.

And don't throw baked beans at me for saying this, Boston faithful -- 

That might be worse than the roman numeral joke.

but Belichick won three Super Bowls when he was cheating, and has not won since being caught.

Yeah, he's only been like three minutes away from winning it all twice in the last five years. Guy obviously can't coach. It was all cheating that won those three rings. But at the same time, fuck Belichick and the Patriots, and fuck their fans twice. Go drink antifreeze, you entitled cunts.

Coaches' Employment Office: The Broncos finished second overall on defense and third in the NFL in passing defense. But what have you done for us lately? Denver's secondary broke down on the final play of regulation against Baltimore, and two days later, secondary coach Ron Milus was fired.

Someone had to be scapegoated for the loss. It couldn't be John Fox, who decided to kneel at the end of regulation despite two timeouts; it couldn't be Peyton Manning, who threw a careless interception in overtime; it couldn't be John Elway, who hired Fox and Manning. Football coaches preach, "Win as a team, lose as a team." Then when there's a loss, they point fingers.

I'm still not over this, but I will comment anyways. Fox's mistake was being too conservative. Manning's mistake was being too aggressive while trying to make something happen. Elway hasn't made any mistakes, he cleaned up the Josh McDaniels mess in two years, which is astonishing.  Those first two are shitty mistakes (and I kind of want Fox run out of town on a rail), but they're at least somewhat understandable. Fox did what he did because the wind was getting nasty and the Broncos were headed into it during the 4th. Dumb, but OK. He had a reason. Manning did what he did because he's Peyton Manning and he gets away with ill-advised across-the-body throws all the time. Dumb, but OK. He had a reason. 

 I do not know what role Milus had in calling the defensive scheme at the end of regulation when the 70 yard TD happened, but I know this: Rahim Moore's mistake was far worse than Fox's and Manning's put together. There's no explanation for it. None. It was abominable. Maybe it's not Milus's fault and I'm not saying he deserved to go, but Christ. That play.... OK, I gotta stop. /drinks rubbing alcohol

Kelly's innovation regarding the deuce is to go for two after the first score. Five times in the 2012 collegiate season, when the Ducks scored to make it 6-0, Oregon went for two, succeeding thrice. An early 8-0 lead causes the opponent to think, "Holy cats and little fishes, the game just started and already we are down by more than a touchdown."

WEASEL COACH ALERT! He goes for it on 4th down a lot, guess he gets a pass.

The power-football Falcons of 2006, who led the league in rushing, are a distant memory. This year's Falcons threw the ball well but were only 29th on the ground. San Francisco opened in a nickel to stop the pass. Early, Atlanta passing was effective. But the Atlanta sideline never seemed to say, "Hey, let's run against that skinny nickel defense." 

Passing is a glory boy way to win! Much more honorable to run on every down, without punting. Football was way better in 1890. 

TMQ tracks Hidden Plays, which are plays that never make highlight reels, 

Like when undrafted small college fourth string tight ends sort of almost blocks someone on a kickoff return! It's what the game is all about!

but impact game outcomes. Leading 24-21 midway through the third quarter, the Falcons had second-and-8 on their 29. The play call was messed up -- though Atlanta called nearly all plays from a no-huddle, and San Francisco did a lot of no-huddle, both teams were using slow no-huddle, running down the play clock before snapping. San Francisco and Atlanta combined for just 117 offensive snaps, a low number; there were 153 snaps in the AFC title game. If you're going to use a slow pace, why not just huddle and forget the chicken dancing at the line of scrimmage?

Because not huddling limits the defense's ability to substitute, you fucking clod. For someone who constantly grandstands about how much smarter and holier he is than thou, he sure has a hard time understanding basics of football tactics. HEY HOW COME OFFENSES SOMETIMES HAVE A WIDE RECEIVER RUNNING ALONG THE LINE OF SCRIMMAGE BEFORE THE SNAP? SEEMS LIKE A WASTE OF ENERGY TO ME.

Trojan Horse, Indeed: "It's disappointing any time you don't win enough. That's what it comes down to in this business, winning enough." -- USC men's basketball coach Kevin O'Neill, after being fired last week.

There's no doubt O'Neill's statement is true -- big-college sports has become a "business." Forget education, all the boosters and television audiences care about is wins. O'Neill was fired by Pat Haden for the sin of a 7-10 record. Haden took over as USC athletic director promising to clean house and put integrity first after numerous NCAA sanctions, but now seems to be just another guy who cares about nothing except winning. Didn't USC once claim to be a university?

All schools should just let a rotating cast of NCAA compliance officers coach their teams. (All assistants should be either professors or nuns.) It's almost like USC thinks they can hire a guy who graduates players AND can do better than 7-10 in early January! Leave it to Gregg to make me take the side of big money college sports, something I hate, but at least am not a preachy asstwat about.

Hey Everybody, Look at Me: Last week, TMQ zinged J.J. Watt for pointing at himself during games. Reader Doug Williams of Pittsburgh writes, "Watt's immature dancing is a learned behavior. One need look no further than the AFC title game for the prime example of that. Ray Lewis points at himself constantly, he even has a pregame song so he can go through his outlandish gyrations. The result? He is lauded and praised by the sports media. That is the stuff that makes TV, and those are the tactics young players imitate in order to get attention.

Yes, aren't sports so much more fun when the players show no emotion? How dare Ray Lewis get excited about playing the sport that has brought him wealth and fame and which he enjoys as much as anyone on Earth enjoys their job? Also, has his emotion ever helped the Ravens win games by getting his teammates pumped up? I doubt it. Doug Williams from Pittsburgh (OOH IS IT PITTSBURGH PA, OR PITTSBURGH INDIANA, HOME OF PITTSBURGH OF INDIANA COLLEGE, A DIVISION THREE POWERHOUSE?) should be beaten with a pillowcase full of rocks. I guarantee you he loves watching golf.

Clear the Decks! Prepare to Dive! The submarine conspiracy show "Last Resort" has its series finale on Thursday, which ABC is puzzlingly promoting as the "season" finale.
Speaking of puzzling, holy dog balls, did anyone in the entire world besides Gregggggg ever give one squirt of piss about Last Resort?

Twitter : sports analysis :: Twitter : solving world poverty

No time for a long post tonight, although I certainly owe everyone a substantial one (in whatever sense someone providing free content to fifteen or so people, most of whom are already his real life friends and would rather hang out with him in person than read his stupid sports blog, can owe that sort of thing).  Tonight's throwaway post comes courtesy of the Pro Football Talk Twitter feed.

Father of @larryfitzgerald says "pathetic" Cardinals have quit wp.me/p14QSB-6Cey
— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) December 10, 2012

If you click on that link, which you shouldn't, it'll take you to a blog post that is essentially a word for word transcription of Larry Fitzgerald's dad's Twitter feed.  Fitzgerald Sr. spent most of the afternoon bitching about how bad the Cardinals are.  Apparently we should pay attention to Fitzgerald Sr. because he's a sportswriter (for a weekly newspaper catering to Minnesota's African-American community, but still!  A sportswriter I guess), but I'm having a hard time taking his thoughts on the Cardinals seriously.  Problem #1 is that he has a dog in the fight which might cloud his objectivity.  Problem #2 is that his thoughts include the following pieces of "analysis":

Humbling embarrassing frustrating angering disappointing painful.What happens when u quit!

and

Definition of team quitting?9 losses n a row.9th loss 58-0!Injuries handling of offense worst nNFL.Adrian Wilson&Darnell Dockett situations!

How very expository.  But anytime you can tweet about a blog post about some angry helicopter parent's tweets, you've got to do it.  Someone needs to drive pageviews and keep the lights on at the offices of the NBCSports blog network.

This is what stupid sounds like

Merril Hoge on NFL Live, calling Falcons/Titans highlights from this past Sunday, had this to say about Michael Turner and his aggressive running style:

He's a tank! He's a bull in a china shop! (pause) What other adjectives could I use?

I hope that question was rhetorical. No one else on the set answered it.

BREAKING NEWS

ESPN wants you to know something about tonight's Indy/Tennessee matchup:




We'll get more details out to you when we hear them. I suppose I shouldn't complain too much- they didn't go for an unnecessary play on words like "CLASH OF THE TITANS (and Colts)."

Matthew Berry is Atrocious at His Job, Don't Ever Listen to a Single Word He Says

Berry, aka ESPN's "Talented Mr. Roto," presumably has been a successful fantasy sports GM in the past. I mean, I won't speculate as to exactly how he got his nickname, or exactly how he acquired his position at ESPN. But I want to give him the benefit of the doubt, and assume he has won/fared well in numerous fantasy football and baseball leagues. Probably.

Now, HAVING SAID THAT, this guy is a fucking idiot. Here's the thing- I've known this for a looonnnnnnnnng time. A long time. And I came to know it by seeing his televised fantasy blurbs on various terrible ESPN programs. But until today, I had never bothered to read anything he wrote. And having finally done so, I have no choice but to make this post.

Before I begin, let me clarify "fucking idiot." Berry's problem is not lack of knowledge. (Well, actually, as you'll see below, that is in fact his problem some of the time. But not all the time.) His real problem is his inability to apply that knowledge. He knows the stats. He obviously does his research. He just can't take those stats and that knowledge and use it to offer any kind of meaningful advice. Don't believe me? Of course you do. All eight of you who read this blog seem to pretty much take my word on everything. But just in case you don't believe me, read on. His week 15 NFL "Players I Love"/"Players I Hate" column is a great example of his incompetence. I'll provide some analysis of his analysis, and then list the relevant stats his recommendations/non-recommendations piled up last weekend. At the end, I'll total everything up for both groups. I'm writing this before looking up the stats, but based on what I know offhand, I'm fairly certain the players he hated did better than the players he loved. When your whole job is giving people fantasy advice... that means you're a fucking idiot.

Week 15 Players I Love:

Pierre Garcon, WR, Colts: Jaguars give up the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers and I have Garcon ahead of Reggie Wayne in my rankings. He's healthier, he will see fewer double-teams, he's been the better fantasy wide receiver the past six weeks, he has a French first name, he's nice to children and pets, there are only two games all year where Jacksonville has not given up at least one touchdown to an opposing wide receiver, even with his poor game last week, Garcon still leads the Colts in targets, Rashean Mathis probably isn't going to play and I play softball with a guy who played college football with Garcon and says he's a really nice guy. At least some of these reasons are relevant.

Hilarious. And insightful. Not terrible analysis (far from the worst you'll read here), but Wayne went off (more on that below) and Garcon went for a whole 2 catches and 16 yards.

Robert Meachem, WR, Saints: Even without scoring last week, Meachem still has seven touchdowns in his past six games. Cowboys are 21st against the pass and Drew Brees looks for Meachem often; he's second on the Saints in targets over the past six weeks.

Hmmm. Meachem went for 5 catches and 43 yards. He was targeted fewer times than either Marques Colston or Devery Henderson.

Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush, RB, Saints: Pierre has four scores in his past three home games, Bush will be a good outlet for Brees when the Cowboys try to blitz, and I don't think Mike Bell plays. If he does, I'm not as excited about Bush.

Bell: only Saints RB to score a touchdown during the game. Thomas and Bush combined: 116 total yards of rushing and receiving.

Laurence Maroney, RB, Patriots: A podcast listener came up with the term "Fantasy Zombie."

A pox on that asshole.

As in ... a guy left for dead who has somehow risen from the grave to actually have real, legit fantasy value. And backing up Cedric Benson in the backfield for the Fightin' Fantasy Zombies is Laurence Maroney. With Brady banged up, I expect the Patriots to rely on the run even more, especially considering how bad the Bills' rush defense is.

Shitty analysis, considering the Bills are bad at everything. Maroney is Berry's first pretty decent recommendation, with 81 yards and a TD.

In fact, I even like Sammy Morris to get four or five points in this game, useful if you are in a deep league.

NO! Quit while you're ahead! Don't say extra stuff when you don't have to- it's almost definitely going to be wrong. Morris: 15 total yards, no TDs.

Terrell Owens, WR, Bills: Speaking of Zombies, Owens makes my flesh crawl. But the Patriots have given up 10 touchdowns to opposing wide receivers in the past five games and Owens has scores in three of his past four games (the one exception being the game he was out on Revis Island).

Hooooo boy. The first of many times Berry will bumblefuck his way through the whole "this team has a good pass (or rush) defense!" thing. Yeah, you know what feeds into those numbers? Whether or not you're a good team or not, or more accurately, whether you're usually playing with a lead or not. It doesn't often speak to the defensive talent the team he's evaluating has. The Patriots gave up 10 pass TDs in their last 5 games for two reasons: 1) they played the Saints, in the Superdome, and 2) they're a good team, having won 3 of the other 4 games, and thus causing the other team to throw to try to catch up. This isn't the worst example of this mistake, but it's certainly one example. Oh yeah- Owens: 2 catches 20 yards, no TDs.

Beanie Wells, RB, Cardinals: Wells has gotten at least 13 touches in five of his past six games. Against the Lions, 13 touches might be enough.

His first truly successful pick: 123 yards and a TD.

Early Doucet, WR, Cardinals: Especially if Larry Fitzgerald doesn't play for some reason, this is a gut call more than anything.

A "gut call." You're fucking awful at your job. I sure hope Ben Bernanke doesn't make decisions about the economy on his "gut." Insert political joke here.

But he's been involved more recently and I could see him getting four or five points for those in super-deep leagues.

Thrown to once. No catches. No yards. Three TDs. Just kidding, zero TDs.

Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions: Scores in three of his past four, in each of his past two home games and in five of his past six games in December.

Monthly stats, especially those reaching back into previous seasons, are completely and totally useless. Three caches, 35 yards, no TDs.

Chris Jennings, RB, Browns: I can't believe I am recommending a Browns running back. Again. Hey Lucy, hold the football. I want to try and kick it. Good grief.

Way to recommend a Browns RB. Unfortunately you recommended the one who ran for 18 yards and no TDs, instead of the one who ran for 286 yards and 3 TDs.

Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs: First! I was, too.

A second good call (not that it was a tough one to make- gee, you think you want to start KC's only good RB against the fucking Browns?)- 170 yards and a TD.

Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs: Welcome back. We missed you. OK, "we" does not include Chris Chambers. He's sulking a bit. But the rest of us? Very excited.

Sulky McChambers went for 114 and a TD. Bowe went for 56 and no TDs. Look, you'd think he'd get ONE of these right, huh?

Arian Foster, RB, Texans: Like the upside, the matchup against the Rams and that Gary Kubiak has said they are going to give him a long look. Just realize you are playing with fire.

In other words: Start him! Except be careful! And maybe don't start him! But I "Love" him this week! So start him! I don't know what the fuck I'm talking about!

This coach pulled Steve Slaton after one play (albeit a fumble) and let Ryan Moats play all game in Week 8, a juicy, tender matchup against the Bills.

Twenty total yards. No TDs. BUT YOU KNEW YOU WERE PLAYING WITH FIRE ALL ALONG!

Houston Texans D/ST: This is what I wrote in my pickups column earlier this week ... "A week after scoring 15 fantasy points against Seattle, Houston, a team that is still in the hunt and desperately needs a win, visits St. Louis. That would be for a matchup with a Rams' team featuring a banged-up Steven Jackson and a third-string quarterback. It's a squad that just gave up 21 points to the Titans' defense. In fact, no team gives up more fantasy points to opposing defenses than the Rams. The defense facing them has scored at least nine fantasy points in five straight weeks."

Start the defense playing against the Rams? Crazy talk! And yet, a very middling performance. Two turnovers forced, 3 sacks, 13 points allowed. Nothing to write home about.

Braylon Edwards and Jerricho Cotchery, WR, Jets: Falcons have given up at least 17 fantasy points to opposing wide receivers each of the past five weeks. I have decided I like that fact more than I hate Kellen Clemens. Wow. This is one ugly week.

Edwards accounted for the Jets' only TD with a 65 yard catch. Without that this would be a horrendous recommendation. As things happened: these two combined for 154 receiving yards and a TD. Mediocre at best. Look, it doesn't take a fucking guru to figure out that offense would be in short supply in the Meadowlands, in December, after a gigantic snowstorm, with Mark "Holy Balls it's Cold Out Here, Where the Fuck am I?" Sanchez starting. But Berry doesn't think about stuff like that, I guess.

Vernon Davis, TE, 49ers: A score in four straight games, Eagles give up the most points to opposing tight ends and clearly, Davis is the starting tight end on our fantasy zombie team.

I detest the idea of this zombie thing, but how the fuck would Davis even qualify? This is only his 4th season in the league, and his first full season with a competent coach. Anyone who completely wrote him off after three "meh" seasons is an idiot. In any case: 43 yards, no TDs.

Knowshon Moreno, RB, Broncos: Without Correll Buckhalter in the lineup, Moreno will touch the ball plenty enough against the Raiders to have perhaps his best week yet.

Oh, he got his touches. This is the kind of analysis which forces me to give Berry credit for knowing what he's talking about. But the Raiders have a decent rush defense (in spite of the fact that they suck, and thus usually trail late in games, causing other teams to run against them more than usual) and Moreno hasn't been that good. So of course he came up with just 42 yards rushing on 19 carriers, and 81 total yards.

Denver Broncos D/ST: Happiness is being at home against Charlie Frye.

Sadness is losing to Frye/JaMarcus Russell and the Raiders at home, giving up 20 points while getting 2 turnovers but just 1 sack. Can't blame Berry too much here, though. This was a good pick in theory.

Heath Miller, TE, Steelers: More of a gut call than anything here, but the Packers do give up the 11th-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends.

Fine, good call. Decent analysis.

Hines Ward is still a bit banged up and I expect Charles Woodson to be all up in Santonio Holmes' business.

Holmes had 77 yards and Ward led the team with 126 yards. So... no so decent analysis. But Miller did have 118 yards, so I'll give Berry his third good recommendation here.

Justin Forsett, RB, Seahawks: I also like Julius Jones in this matchup against the Bucs, but I'm putting Forsett here because he is a part of the pass game, Seattle wants (needs) to get him even more involved to see what they have. Obviously, from my ranking of Forsett above, I believe he will be the starting running back next year and I am a huge fan of his skills. And by the way, he has five scores in his past five games. Regardless, the Bucs give up the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing running backs and have allowed five scores to them in their past four road games. This is a bad team on a long trip and both Seahawks running backs will have nice games.

I like what he's saying about Forsett here, generally. He'll probably be a legit fantasy starter next year. However, again we see a failure to realize why a team gives up lots of points to either RBs or QBs/HBs. The Bucs are terrible. That's why RBs pick up good stats against them. Is it that hard to figure out? Since Seattle's anemic offense prevented them from getting a substantial lead, and thus focusing on the ground game, this pick failed miserably. Sixty nine total yards and no TDs for Forsett. (65 total yards and no TDs for Jones.)

Deion Branch, WR, Seahawks: Nate Burleson won't play and it's not like the Bucs' pass defense is all that. Branch actually showed signs of life on Sunday with five receptions on seven targets. The targets were second-most on the team. I ranked him 42nd, incidentally, and will move him up on Friday following the official news that Burleson is out.

Branch was targeted ten times, leading the team. Awesome. The result? Four catches, 28 yards. The only talented WR the Seahawks have on their roster, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, had 73 yards.

Seattle Seahawks D/ST: What? Really? They are bottom 10 in total points allowed. Yes, but they are at home to Tampa Bay. Bucs allow the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing defenses. The defense facing them has scored at least 15 points in three of the past four. They average more than 12 points a game at home and they are available in more than 80 percent of leagues. I'm not saying it'll be pretty but if you're stuck, it will do in a pinch.

Then why is it on your "Love" list?

It's kind of like the Perkins waitress in the Tiger story.

TOPICAL!!!!

You're surprised to see her there but some days, there's just not a lot else around. If Laurence Maroney is a fantasy zombie, the Seahawks' defense is a fantasy Perkins waitress.

They gave up 24 points, forced 1 turnover, and had 0 sacks. Hope that worked in a pinch for someone out there, but I doubt it.

Jason Campbell, QB, Redskins: Has outscored Tom Brady each of the past three weeks. Just saying. The Giants, by the way, have given up at least 17 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks in five of their past six.

The Giants' last 6- Eagles x2, Chargers, Broncos, Falcons, and Cowboys. Soooooo... 5 games against good QBs, 3 against "elite" (or close to it) QBs. You know, QBs who are way way way better than Jason Fucking Campbell. Maybe not a stat worth investing in. And of course, Campbell came up with a stellar 15/28, 1 TD, 2 INT night. One of the picks was the worst I've seen in the NFL this season; the Redskins called a TE screen, and Campbell, under only minimal pressure, threw the pass 10 feet over the head of a wide ope Fred Davis for a pick six.

Quinton Ganther, RB, Redskins: Giants have given up 17 rushing touchdowns this year, third most in the NFL.

Forty total yards and a TD. Shrug.

Fred Davis, TE, Redskins: I admit to being a Redskins homer but I like teams at home on "Monday Night Football."

GREAT ANALYSIS. STELLAR ANALYSIS. After Washington's blowout loss, MNF home teams are 8-8 this year.

National audience under the lights and all that. Plus, Davis has four scores in his past three games and New York gives up the second most fantasy points to opposing tight ends.

Fine. A tepid thumbs up, for Davis's 65 yards and a TD.

So let's total it up: 26 players (including defenses). One QB who had a terrible night. A total 1292 yards and 5 TDs from his 22 RBs, WRs, and TEs. (I'm pretty sure that math is right. If it is, that's 59 yards per player. Meaning, not a total which will help you win.) Three defenses, none of whom had good days. At least two players with marginal roles and questionable skills which he recommended "on a hunch." Berry, you are an assclown. And your analysis only gets worse.

Week 15 Players I Hate:

Reggie Wayne, WR, Colts: It will not surprise me in the least to wake up Friday morning to see that Wayne has gone off (just like he did in Week 1 against the Jags).

I hate him. But if he succeeds DON'T SAY I DIDN'T WARN YOU!

He certainly has the skill and Jacksonville is terrible against the pass. But as I wrote to Tristan Cockcroft for his "Called Out!" column, Wayne has single-digit fantasy points in five of his past six games and last week,

Fine, fair enough.

Pierre Garcon, Dallas Clark and Joseph Addai ALL had more targets than him. He's banged up and there's no motivation to play Wayne the whole game. I have him outside my top 20 and feel he's a flex play at best.

I don't disagree with the thinking here. But Wayne went for 132 yards and a TD. A better day than any HB, WR, or TE on the "Love" list. After one entry on the "Hate" list.

Mike Sims-Walker, WR, Jaguars: Same thing here as with Wayne. Could he explode? Sure.

Will he? Don't ask me, this is only my job!

But something's not right and frankly, I just don't trust him.

My gut says don't start him! Just a hunch.

Single-digit fantasy points in three straight games, including a total of 18 yards receiving in his past two home games.

Sort of like Deion Branch. And so of course Sims-Walker goes for 64 yards and a TD.

Randy Moss, WR, Patriots: He was in this list last week and I'm by far the lowest on him (I have him 19) this week. My reasoning is this: He had less than 70 yards for four straight weeks,

He stink! Ask Chris Gamble, authority on everything.

the Bills are fifth best against the pass,

Because no one needs to pass on them, because their opponents are always beating them. I already asked, but I will again: how hard is this to figure out?

allow the second fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers

Correlation? Causation? Don't ask Berry, he's busy having hunches and telling you to start Arian Foster.

and Brady ain't right. I bet they do everything in their power to get Moss a score after all the media attention this past week, but his yardage total won't be high and counting on TDs is like chasing wins in baseball.

Oh, please believe I will be reading your baseball advice when April rolls around. Could it be worse than this? Hopefully, for the sake of the blog. Meanwhile, Moss led all WRs in this game with 70 yards. He also had a TD. If chasing TDs in football is like chasing wins in baseball, chasing them with Moss is like chasing wins with Tim Lincecum.

Maurice Morris, RB, Detroit: There's Perkins waitresses and then there's "Come on, man, what are you doing? Seriously. Go home."

Wow. 161 total yards and a TD.

Matt Cassel, QB, Chiefs: Don't get cute because you see the Browns on the schedule and Dwayne Bowe is back.

DON'T TRUST YOUR GUT!

He has zero fantasy points for two straight weeks and while I think Bowe has a good game, it won't be enough to lift Cassel.

22/40, 331 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs. I mean, he's no Jason Campbell, playing at home on a Monday night. But realizing that a QB playing the Browns is probably going to have a good game (see Matt Stafford) shouldn't be too difficult.

Any Falcons Running Back: I don't know if Michael Turner is playing as of this writing, but it's a muddled mess that I don't trust regardless of who is or is not playing.

Fair enough, the Falcons only ran for 86 yards against the Jets. Jason Snelling had 59, I'll count that towards my total at the end of the post.

Roddy White, WR, Falcons: Insert "stud facing Darrelle Revis" here.

Yeah fine blah blah whatever.

Alex Smith and Michael Crabtree, 49ers: Short week, on the road, Eagles very tough. No thanks.

Smith basically played like Campbell, with an extra INT. Who the fuck would even have Smith on their team in the first place? This is like saying "Don't start Kyle Boller!" But Crabtree (he carries a curse!) did have a shit game. Berry's on a roll!

LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles: Don't trust any Philly running back, especially him.

Except when he goes for 56 yards and a TD.

Matt Forte, RB, Bears: As someone who owns Forte in a league, I'd like to request Forte also post a message to his Web site apologizing for his transgressions.

Pretty glad I didn't end up with this guy on my team. He did end up with 69 total yards, though, which is just as many as "Love" guy Forsett. But it doesn't take a huge brain to tell owners not to start Forte, who hasn't done anything in weeks, against the Ravens.

Jay Cutler, QB, Bears: New mystery book racing up the best seller charts: The Cutler Did It!

Horrendous joke. The recommendation, though, was correct. A little surprising given how bad Baltimore's secondary has been, but I'm sure resident FJayM Ravens fan Jack is OK with the way things turned out.

Carson Palmer, QB, Bengals: Single-digit fantasy points in four of his past five games, the Chargers are top 10 in the NFL in both passing yards allowed per game and fewest fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. In fact, they've been even better at home; opposing quarterbacks are averaging just 11 fantasy points a game at San Diego this year. Plus, the Bengals are running a lot more than passing these days.

Reasonable analysis, but Palmer went for 27/40, 314 yards, 2 TDs, and 1 INT.

Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Steelers: Chances are, if you have him, you're in a deep hole in the playoffs this week, thanks to last week's brutal performance against Cleveland. But if you managed to survive, I got sour news for you, Jack. Packers have not allowed a 100-yard rusher since Week 3. They've given up just four rushing touchdowns all season, they give up the second fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs and I expect Green Bay to score a lot of points against a reeling Steelers defense, meaning Pittsburgh will be playing from behind.

Nice sentence. Mendenhall went for 111 total yards and a (GASP!) rushing TD.

Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers: Four points or less in his past three games with DeAngelo Williams ... maybe he gets a score, but I don't trust him against the Vikings.

DeAngelo Williams has been hurt for the past month. He got hurt again early in this game. (WHO COULD HAVE SEEN IT COMING?) And Stewart went for 123 totals yards and 2 TDs.

Kevin Boss, TE, Giants: Redskins allow the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends.

Boss goes for 57 yards. Shrug.

So let's total it up. Four QBs, one of whom was Alex Smith, who isn't on anyone's roster. So I'll total up the other 3- 739 yards, 4 TDs, and 4 INTs (3 of which were Cutler's). Nothing to write home about, but in general more effective than Jason Campbell. Twelve RB/WR/TEs- 962 total yards, 8 TDs. Ten fewer players of this type than those he "Loved," and yet 3 more TDs. That's incredible. An average of 80 yards per player, 21 more than the "Love" guys. It's mind-boggling. Take out one or two of the successful "Love" guys, like Charles or Wells, and a team made out of these 12 "Hate" guys beats a team made out of those 20 or so "Love" guys. How awful is that? The performance of the two groups wasn't even roughly similar on a per-player basis. And this is why Matthew Berry is a useless cockbucket. Don't listen to him, not that you were in the first place. You could make better decisions about starting or sitting players by flipping a coin.