Writer Attempts to Understand Fielding Statistics; Lobotomy Ensues

Paul Daugherty of the Cincinnati Enquirer is surprised by the Reds' recent stretch of reasonably good baseball. Who isn't? But this article is a slop-fest of statistical foolishness. Check it out:

[Note: this article dates to 5/18 - I simply hadn't gotten around to it till now]

Numbers Add Up to Better Defense

In baseball, defining good defense is like catching a butterfly with a frying pan.

That's why some of us are professional writers and some of us are bloggers. Similes, ladies and gentlemen: not just something your tenth-grade English teacher tested you on.

It's the team with the fewest errors, right? It's the team with the best fielding percentage. Fewer errors equals better defense. Of course it does.

This is what we call a "straw man" - Paul is setting up the old version of baseballthink and oversimplifying it. Then, he will refute it! Paul is smarter than conventional baseball wisdom. QED!

Not really. Reds center fielder Willy Taveras gets to flyballs that some major league outfielders couldn't reach in Danica Patrick's ride.

Pop culture references are not the exclusive property of Bill Simmons. Even hometown joes can use 'em!

What if Taveras gets to a ball in the gap and drops it? He gets an error. Does that make him a bad outfielder?

Can't be fielding percentage, then. Must be putouts. Has to be. An outfielder with a lot of putouts has to be good. He's catching more balls. Makes perfect sense. OK, seamhead, but what if his pitching staff includes more flyball pitchers than groundball guys?

I love the "OK, seamhead" part - as though Mr. Daugherty is conceivably addressing someone who had thought a lot about fielding, but hadn't thought of the last point (which really isn't that complex).

I hope someday I'm in an argument and someone says, "OK, seamhead, listen to THIS!" Then I will slink away like I did when I lost a sixth-grade cap war.

See what I mean?

Yes.

The Reds defense is better this year. Even as they've made more errors than 29 other major league teams.

Now we're getting interesting. They're last in the majors in errors. That's not a good sign.

I asked readers of my blog to tell me where to go. (They're very good at that.) Actually, I wanted Web sites that delivered cold, hard facts when it came to catching butterflies with frying pans. The posters delivered.

Wow, never mind. Daugherty is cool. He takes advice from his blog's commenters. I take back all the snide, backhanded insults I used earlier.

One offered this helpful tidbit: Compare "the statistics of fielding percentage, number of putouts and assists, along with doubles, triples and inside-the-park home runs allowed by the outfielders this year to the 2008 team after 32 games."

A helpful tidbit to be sure, but it's really hard to measure the stat of "doubles allowed by outfielders"... usually you measure the "doubles allowed by pitchers" stat. I hear Adam Dunn allowed 28375 doubles last year, which was only exceeded by this guy, who allowed 298329757 doubles last year.

Whuh?

I don't think this word is in the dictionary.

Who do I look like, Norman Einstein?

A veiled pop culture reference! TV commentator (and Notre Dame graduate) Joe Theismann once allegedly claimed that "A genuis is a guy like Norman Einstein".

Someone else suggested Batting Average, Balls In Play: BABIP.

BABIP sounds like the hero of a jungle movie. "Babip, come quickly! The lion is eating the little boy!"

To some people, this could be construed as vaguely offensive. To no people, this could be construed as funny. Also, most reasonable commenters who understand what BABIP is will recognize that it doesn't do a great job measuring defense. But hey! it's a funny acronym, and thus it has a place in this article.

A few offered UZR, which isn't a designer steroid

That was a joke! Did you catch it? You wouldn't have caught it if I hadn't separated it like this!

but something called Ultimate Zone Rating. I was directed to an author named John Dewan, who has published the Fielding Bibles, I and II. After the bosses said I couldn't expense the Bibles, I blew that one off,

Gosh, the newspaper industry sure has fallen on hard times when you can't spend thirty-three bucks on books you don't really intend to read because you already don't like stats.

blasphemously.

That was another joke! Get it? He blew off Dewan's book, a "Bible", so it was like committing blasphemy!

Baseballprospectus.com offers a Defensive Efficiency rating, "the rate at which balls put into play are converted into outs." The Reds rank fifth in the major leagues.

Hey! A stat! Maybe that's why the Reds are doing well at defense! Why don't you explain this, Mr. Daugherty? That would be a great way to support your claim that the Reds' defense is better this year.

There were a lot of other, very small numbers to look at, but I felt myself slipping into a coma, so I stopped reading them.

Why were the numbers smaller? I have a subscription to BP.com myself and I'm pretty sure all the numbers are the same size. Was there a font problem? Are you actually narcoleptic? [Note: the link is definitely worth the very short time you will invest in it].

Generally, I think baseball stats are like vegetables: An important part of a well-balanced diet and occasionally hard to swallow.

You just spent the whole time mocking pretty much all the statistics - from errors to fielding % to UZR to BABIP to defensive efficiency. Which stats do you like? Which stats, like spinach, are actually good for you, even though they look funny on paper and have weird acronyms? Food metaphors for everyone!

So where do we go with this?

Last year, the Reds were hurt by Ken Griffey Jr.'s diminished range in right field and Adam Dunn's general mismanagement in left.

Amen. I actually like the phrase "general mismanagement" - it aptly describes Mr. Dunn's fielding ability. These guys explain how it works. [Note: the video is worth your time if you've ever been an opposing fan in the left-field bleachers at Wrigley].

But how much better are they now, with Jay Bruce in right and the Chris Dickerson/Laynce Nix combo in left?

More importantly: What has Willy Taveras given them in center field?

What a good pair of questions to ask. Bravo, Mr. Daugherty!

For what it's worth, Nix's and Taveras' RF/9 is a bit above league average, and Dickerson's a bit below. In contrast, Dunn's and Griffey's RF/9 for 2008 are both significantly below league average. Since the Reds' staff is generally the same staff as last year, it seems that the Reds' defense has improved substantially since last year! You're right, Paul!

I asked Sam Grossman. Sam who?

The Reds Manager of Baseball Research and Analysis. Like most astute baseball people, Grossman has a degree in mathematics from Northwestern. He worked in insurance, decided he'd rather not, took a few minor league internships and was hired by the Reds in 2007. Grossman crunches the fielding numbers.

Shit. I should follow my dream like Sam Grossman.

He reads play-by-plays like they're the Dead Sea Scrolls.

More Bible allusions! Anyone who reads this post all the way through will be older than Jared!

They show where balls are hit - their "zone" - and what happened. From there, Grossman employs a double-secret formula similar to the one used by the UZR folks: How hard was the ball hit? Was it off a right-handed or left-handed pitcher? And so on. Then the numbers are compared to the league average.

I wonder how "double-secret" this formula is. I also like how he calls them "the UZR folks".

That's basically how the Reds concluded last winter that Taveras would be a great, um, catch

Another joke! Get it? It's a pun!

as a free-agent center fielder. "It was as simple as (Taveras) turning into outs a lot of balls hit to him," Grossman says. "He played in two big center fields, first in Houston, then in Colorado. He made plays most visiting center fielders wouldn't make." He still does.

He still has a .330 career OBP as a leadoff hitter. But that's not the point.

The UZR boys

Whatever happened to "UZR folks"? That sounds nicer. Either way, the "boys" and "folks" almost makes these dudes sound like rednecks. The good old UZR boys probably still live in their folks' basements anyways.

currently rank Taveras the second-best center fielder in the game. Jay Bruce - Jay Bruce! - is seen as the No. 1 right fielder. Overall, UZR says the Reds right now have the best outfield defense in baseball.

Excellent! Stats have proved Mr. Daugherty's point, even though he likes them about as much as he likes okra!

"Our formula rates our infield as average and our outfield a little above average," says Grossman, who adds helpfully, "Another guy uses what he calls 'probablistic model of range.' " We really don't want to go there.

I kind of want to go there. When you say "we" don't want to go there, Paul, don't include me in the royal "we". "You" and some other fans don't want to go there because it probably involves too much thinking. Baseball isn't about thinking. Baseball is about turning the double-play and executing bunts.

Grossman notes his work doesn't trump the eyeball work of scouts and general manager Walt Jocketty, but supplements and often confirms it. "A scout can tell you if a guy has good range," says Grossman. "This just quantifies it."

If a scout watches a guy play one game, how can he tell the extent of the player's range in all directions? The UZR, which "watches" every game a player plays, seems to be able to define a player's range a lot more accurately than a scout watching just a few games...

While stats are certainly not the end-all of baseball analysis, you gotta imagine that it stings a little bit for Grossman when he has to say shit like this.

To me, defense is judged best through daily watching. There ought to be a Web site: Watchthedamnedgame.com.

Paul, how are the Reds supposed to watch every game of every player they might want to trade for/sign/draft? It's just not plausible. Also, there is a web site like that: it's called www.mlb.tv and it's pretty great. I've subscribed the last five summers and there's no money better spent. I say, Paul, there ought to be a web site: www.firejournalistswhowritestupidthings.com.

"That's how I do it," Jocketty says. "We use (Grossman's) information as a baseline. I use input from scouts, and add my own. It all works together." But unless you're a genetic mutant or Bill James, you can't watch enough baseball to be an expert on every team's defense.

Wait, Bill James actually watches baseball? I thought played Strat-o-matic baseball in his garage every day. Huh.

Jocketty mentioned David Eckstein, the current San Diego Padres infielder who played shortstop on the St. Louis team that won the 2006 World Series. Eckstein's defense had to be seen daily to be believed. "Below average arm strength, OK range," Jocketty says. "But he always seemed to be able to position himself and get a throw off."

YES! Eckstein! It's like an unholy rule! Whenever any journalist wants to mention the "stats are stupid and some things in baseball are just unquantifiable", they have to cite the ECKSTEIN law. Seriously: as any discussion of statistical relevance in baseball grows, the probability of a comparison involving Eckstein approaches 1. It's a law.

Let me repeat one of the most ridiculous statments I've read recently:

"Eckstein's defense had to be seen daily to be believed".

Actually, nothing Eckstein does has to be seen to be believed. I've probably seen the guy play only three or four times in my whole life, and I can believe everything the guy does: play slightly-below average baseball.

Grossman says quantifying defensive ability "was the hardest thing to nail down, in the past. We're getting there."

Hooray for stat-guys!

The past? What's harder to judge now?

"The effect of team chemistry," he says. "The manager effect."

I can't wait until we come up with stats for these ones. The acronyms will be ridiculous!

The manager? That's an easy one. Just ask the fans what they think.

What? I thought this article was about defense?

Completely Unexpected

What? What's that? Pete Rose would vote Alex Rodriguez into the Hall of Fame if he had a ballot? So what you're telling me is... a guy who really wants to be in the HOF, but can't get in because he did something the game finds reprehensible, would allow another guy who did something reprehensible in? Well at least we know Rose isn't a huge hypocrite. Oh wait, actually, he kind of is.

"When you take steroids you have a direct outcome of the game," Rose said. "That's the integrity of the game. And when you can change records when you do something illegal, it's just not right."

Emphasis added. But hey, at least he's not a hypocrite when it comes to the HOF balloting itself.

I'm not taking a holier than thou stance here- I actually think Rose deserves to be in, in some capacity. I'm undecided about steroid users. But the point of this post is that this is a pretty hilarious sound bite. Hey Pete, how about you go away and don't talk for a while.

PS- Happy second birthday to us. Yeah, motherfuckers. That's right. Two whole years. Counting the 2008 leap year, that's 731 days! We may be withering on the vine and dying, but we are certainly not dead yet. I expect us stick around at least another 5 or 6 months before we stop posting altogether. Also- in our first post ever, I actually tried to make a joke about Mel Kiper Jr.'s hair. I still need to kick my own ass for that. What was my next topic going to be- airplane food?

I Am Tired of the Yearly Bullshittting

That I get from basically every fucking sportswriter who calls the Reds their dark-horse team.

Seriously - this shite has happened every year since 1999 - and the Reds have had eight straight losing seasons.

Addressing a few of Mr. Dobrow's points:

• The Reds have one returning regular who played 120 games and OPS+'d over 110 - Joey Votto. Only ONE player in the Reds' eight position players was an above-average major league hitter for a significant portion of the season.
• Of the great fact that "80% of their starting rotation is returning": only one of those starters contributed an ERA+ of over 100 - Edinson Volquez. Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo are both on the wrong side of 30 and unless they find someone to fill the chasm that is the 5th rotation slot... apocalypse. Maybe Micah Owings can stiffen the staff?
• This team is still managed by a man who started a player who managed to OBP . 238 over 366 at bats. This is utterly inexcusable.
• This team's Pythag had them at 90 losses - AND THEY LOST THEIR BEST HITTER with no prospect of the offense being replaced.

ARTICLE FORMULA:

1. Team X had a below average year last year!
2. Team X has one or two young studs !
3. If 239487 things go right, Team X will confirm my dark-horse article!
4. Team X will be the next Tampa Bay Rays!


Oh well. It's hot-stove season, and I am a bitter man whose team has spent the last decade playing baseball just well enough to encourage the smallest smudges of hope, but never well enough to merit serious consideration after Bastille Day.

Some Days, You Hate Your Team Not Just Because They Lose to the Pirates, but for the Stupid Shit They Say Afterwards

I made the mistake of reading up on last night's Reds-Pirates game on mlb.com. Almost always a mistake; the quality of writing over there is abysmal. Here's what some guy named Mark Sheldon reports about last night's 4-3 Pirates win:

Through three starts, Arroyo is 0-1 with a 5.14 ERA. He has yet to pitch more than 5 2/3 innings.

"I wasn't particularly happy. It's pretty average," Arroyo said of his season thus far. "Nothing is clicking yet. You feel like you're running uphill a bit. I'm happy I kept us in the game, pretty much. I kept us close all three times, even though I don't feel like I've had the greatest stuff."

No, it's not average. Your WHIP is over 1.5 and your ERA+ is a miserable 81. You are throwing near 100 pitches in the first five innings of your starts.

Arroyo was finished after he threw 102 pitches. High pitch counts have been a running theme so far, but the right-hander wasn't worried.

"Sometimes, when you're facing the same guys year in and year out, they tend to start swinging at your stuff early, knowing you're going to be around the plate," Arroyo said. "I don't want to fall victim to guys by me throwing too many strikes. I tried to pull things out of the zone early in the game and get them off some pitches, which gets the pitch count up sometimes."

Is this a new philosophy of pitching? Don't throw too many strikes because you're facing the same guys year in and year out?

I think that's been the key to Greg Maddux's success. Since he's faced the same guys year in and year out for two decades in the NL, they know he's going to be around the plate. He must be avoiding strikes. No, actually, he's gone six and seven innings in his two starts and thrown fewer pitches in both outings.

Or maybe he just changes speeds. Bronson is probably too busy styling his hair or playing his guitar to figure that out.

I think it's safe to say that Bronson's revolutionary "Don't Throw Strikes" theory isn't going to have a profound effect on the game.

In the seventh, the Reds loaded the bases with three one-out singles and did not score. For the third time in two nights, normally clutch hitter Edwin Encarnacion made the third out with the bases loaded.

He did hit a game-ending home run after failing to get a bunt down.That was one at-bat. Considering the entirety of his career, none of his "clutch stats" show that he is at all more likely to get a hit when his team needs it.

"It seems like the hit keeps eluding us and they keep getting it," Baker said. "That's the name of the game. He who gets the most two-out hits usually wins."

I'm glad you are managing, Dusty. Why don't you spend less time spouting useless crap like this and more time yelling at your #2 starter, who has apparently decided that his best pitching approach is to avoid throwing strikes?

Ugh. It could be a long season.

An Old Favorite!

Dayn Perry picks his surprising contenders next year

Bad news is: he picked the Reds. Now, according to the Colin Cowherd school of media, other teams in the Central will be gunning for them.

It's pretty much all just Dayn rambling about a few players on each team who are "solid" or "poised to break out" or "could be contributors". Honestly, I'm not even going to break it down, since it's just a bunch of wishy-washy statements about a few names.

OMG JARROD SALTALAMACCHIA the Rangers are a dark horse!

Also, here's the weirdest part - he picks the Rays, then adds this doozy:

As for the bullpen, Troy Percival was an excellent addition, and he'll greatly improve how the Rays fare in late, high-leverage innings.

What the hell is a high leverage inning? Does he mean the ninth? The eighth? The sixth? I have no idea which innings have more leverage than others.

Cub Writers Are Ignorant, Just Like Their Fans

Well, ol' Dusty Baker comes down from the booth to manage the Reds. This could be interesting. I don't think Dusty's a good manager, but I think he's probably the best the Reds have had since Davey Johnson or Jack McKeon, and certainly a better candidate than most of the ones out there at this point in time.

But witness this, by Chris Deluca of the Chicago Sun-Times.

Baker Back in Game

BOSTON -- Dusty Baker's biggest fear was becoming the next Cito Gaston or Davey Johnson -- a superstar manager who got canned, never to return.

Let's play "one of these things is not like the other":

Which one has no World Series titles?

Which one has the most fourth-or-lower finishes?

Which one is only a "superstar manager" in the minds of inane Cub fans?

But after a year away from the dugout -- after he was dismissed by the Cubs -- Baker made his return Saturday night, agreeing to a three-year deal to manage the Cincinnati Reds, a deal expected to be formally announced today.

It's a hire that promises to spice things up in the National League Central, where the Cubs are the reigning champions.

Not unless the Reds get two more starters, re-sign Adam Dunn, and have a bullpen that can get batters out, it sure won't.

The manager with a West Coast tilt has landed right back in the Midwest. And Baker is tentatively scheduled to make his Wrigley Field return to start the Cubs' second homestand of 2008, on April 15.

Yay! You're setting up a column to write next April. For you non-media people, this is called a "teaser".

When Baker signed on last October to become an analyst for ESPN, he made a point of stressing to the Sun-Times that this was a ''nice, temporary gig.''

I caught up with Baker at the 2006 World Series in Detroit, and he was already thinking ahead to his next managerial job -- wherever that might be. He lobbied hard last offseason for the Washington Nationals spot that eventually went to Manny Acta.

Then he spent a year honing his studio skills with ESPN.

I wonder how much skill he actually honed. My guess is that he sat around and offered "seasoned baseball opinions" about important things like "clogging the bases" and didn't hone anything. Maybe he whitened his teeth or something.

Though he was shocked by the amount of money the Cubs spent immediately after he was sent packing, Baker was anything but bitter. Instead, he firmly believed his four years on the North Side were a great education.

I hope, if I am ever fired from a job, I can say the same. Dusty actually seems like a pretty level-headed guy, and I think that's a positive asset.

Baker inherits a Reds team that hasn't reached the playoffs since winning the Central with an 85-59 record in the strike-shortened 1995 season and hasn't had a winning record since going 85-77 to finish second in 2000.

Well, the Reds did tie for the wild-card in 1999, and were leading the NL in 1994, but I do buy the overall point of this sentence, which is that the Reds haven't had a lot of success recently.

The Reds have plenty of work to do to make some noise in an NL Central that is expected to feature a strong Cubs team, an even stronger Milwaukee Brewers club and a rebuilt St. Louis Cardinals.

Three totally unsupported allegations. I guess the Cubs could be as strong next year, if Ted Lilly can continue to pitch much higher than his career numbers would indicate. I don't know why the Brewers might be stronger, except that their core young players have another year. And I don't have any idea why he suggests the Cards will be better or rebuilt, seeing as they FIRED THEIR GENERAL MANAGER last week.

Baker will encounter a young team -- an area in which he has struggled. The rotation is spotty beyond veterans Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo, though top prospect Homer Bailey is expected to nail down a spot. The Reds had the worst bullpen in the NL and the lineup -- as always -- depends on the health of future Hall of Famer Ken Griffey Jr.

1. The rotation sucks. Obvious point, Chris.

2.Bullpen sucks. Obvious point, Chris.

3. This is why we have the label WRONG. The Reds' lineup success depends as much on Adam Dunn's 136 OPS+ returning to the lineup and Brandon Phillips having another 30-30 season. It could depend on the emergence of Edwin Encarnacion, Joey Votto, or Josh Hamilton. Ken Griffey Jr., while a good player capable of carrying a team for a time, is NOT the sole dependent factor in the Reds' offensive success next year. WRONG!

Baker -- a three-time NL Manager of the Year -- takes a 1,162-1,041 career record to Cincinnati after stints with the San Francisco Giants (1993-2002) and Cubs (2003-06). He took the Giants to the 2002 World Series, then took the Cubs to the NL Championship Series the next season.

In my opinion, Barry Bonds having possibly the greatest offensive season in all of baseball history was what took the Giants to the Series in 2002, not Dusty Baker. In my opinion, the starting staff of the 2003 Cubs (the top 4, while throwing over 200 innings, posted ERAs of 2.43, 3.11, 3.20, and 4.11) took them to the NLCS.

In Chris Deluca's opinion, Dusty Baker took them there. Well, maybe Dusty made the plane reservations or something.

[boring stuff omitted]

''Hey, man, I'll be back,'' Baker promised a year ago, ''and I'll be back even better than I was.''

Reds fans hope so!