Gibbons and Ricciardi Are Two Ignorant Fuckheads

But sadly, it's not my job to make fun of them. It's my job to make fun of people who support them and give really awful reasons. We're talking Richard Griffin here, friends. Griff thinks that Frank Thomas was the recipient of the worst Blue Jays contract of all time.

Of 82 major-league free-agent signings in the Jays' 32-year history, the contract given to Frank Thomas on November 17, 2006, now ranks as the team's worst free-agent signing ever. Rounding out the Top-5 free-agent disasters are Erik Hanson (1996), Randy Myers (1999), Corey Koskie (2004) and A.J. Burnett (2005).

You're talking about bad Blue Jays contracts and avoiding talking about Vernon Wells's 7 year, $126M fiasco? The dude has a .268 career EqA, a solid 20 ticks below what Frank Thomas did last year. Granted, Wells signed an extension, so he wasn't technically a free agent, but come on.

With yesterday's release of Thomas, the Jays effectively gave him $18.12 million (all figures U.S.) for 696 plate appearances that produced 157 hits, 29 homers and 106 RBIs, with a .266 average.

What's wrong with that kind of production? Solid power....that batting average is a little sketchy, so you may have a point there unless Frank Thomas is really, really good at drawing walks or something....

Yes, he reached base 100 times on walks and hit-by-pitch,

See, but that's useful! You can't just shrug stuff like that off! That more than makes up for his low batting average! Oh no....unless.....

but most times that was just clogging the basepaths.

...which caused the Blue Jays to call their local basepath plumber, Humperdink McBuggins, who watched a tape of every time Frank Thomas was on base last year and came up with a estimate and told the Blue Jays, "Yo, J.P. I can fix this shiz, but it's gonna cost you 4.2 runs over the course of the season". And J.P. Ricciardi agreed in a second, because he takes his advice from Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star, who estimated the unclogging cost at about 10 times that much, rendering every walk (but not single, hey why aren't singles "clogging up the basepaths" too?) pretty much useless.

And lo, McBuggins brought over his gigantic baseplunger and baseplunged away the cloggity cloggage, reduced Thomas's WARP by a mere 0.4, and then everyone lived happily ever after. The End.

The question was always where to bat the Hurt. With Thomas in the five-hole, that was a fifth right-handed bat in a row.

Oh NO! Now the opposition has a slightly easier time using situational relievers against the Blue Jays! Hey, isn't there a such thing as pinch-hitting anyone on your bench? Oh right, my bad, not everyone in baseball has the defensive skill to be a DH. I've really gotta think these things through in advance.

Plus, he forever clogged the bases with his lack of mobility ... and that is not something that has changed since GM J.P. Ricciardi reached agreement with Thomas just three days into the '06 free-agent signing period. Another thing: in that abbreviated negotiating time frame, whom was he bidding against?

Are you telling me that paying someone $9M a year to hit .277/.377/.480 is stupid?

With Thomas gone, flexibility has returned to the batting order. With Lind on his way back, there is now room for him and Stairs to both play.

Yay! We get to play a disappointing young player and a dinosaur that had a mysterious breakout at age 39!

Plus, when they go on the road for interleague games with no DH, they have 13 men that can play a position.

You hear that, White Sox? Dump Jim Thome while you still can!

Wait, there's more. Griffin wrote something on this just before Thomas was released too.

A revised DH combo of Stairs and either Rod Barajas or Marco Scutaro could be easier to slot into the batting order than was the slumping one-man roadblock that is the Hurt.

How is that "easier"? Barajas and Scutaro are way tougher to spell correctly than "Thomas". Oh...you meant better for the team. Yes, lets have a backup catcher who's career line is .239/.288/.409 be our designated hitter. No wait....how about the most .257/.321/.381 utility infielder in the history of baseball, that would be real EASY to slot into the batting order at a position DESIGNATED for the player to only be able to contribute to the team by HITTING.

Caveat: The utility infielder has the ability to make the entire crowd chant "MARCO!! ::clap clap:: SCUTARO!!" as seen in the 2006 ALCS, thereby firing up the team with his having-the-same-first-name-as-some-explorer-after-whom-a-really-annoying-childrens-pool-game-was-named-ness.

And where do you get off calling Frank Thomas a roadblock??? A "roadblock" in a lineup is someone who doesn't keep the line moving by making outs. A man who just OBPed .377 and has a career .420 OBP does NOT fall in that category.

Last season, his first with the Jays, Thomas also stumbled out of the gate. After 60 at-bats in 2007, he had 12 hits (a .200 average), two homers and five RBIs. Yet, further to his point, Frank remained in the lineup until finally righting the ship and finding his groove. This year, with three homers and 11 RBIs, he will not receive that same chance.

Let me rephrase that.

Here's a recent and insanely relevant example of a long term trend that Frank Thomas starts slow then gets his act together later. Frank Thomas started off slow this year. Therefore, cut him. Logic is great. I'm Richard Griffin. I get blazed and fornicate with donkeys every night and can no longer think clearly.

There is a bigger picture here for the Jays.

Really? Well they aren't paying any attention to it. They are taking a 10 game sample size and saying, "Our DH can't hit anymore! He sucks! He's a backup! Bench him! Don't like it? FINE! GET OUTTA MY OFFICE! GET ROD BARAJAS IN THE STARTING LINEUP ASAP!"

What's best for the team, in this case, is also best for the organization. A $10 million Thomas deal in '09 would become untradeable, the worst-case scenario for a largest-ever Toronto payroll that has scraped the $100 million mark.

Paying $10M for a pretty useful player? Horrendous! Hey, isn't this the team that wants to start Shannon Stewart in LF every day and release Reed Johnson? Vernon Wells is worth 7 years, right? B.J. Ryan and A.J. Burnett....they have awesome health records....don't they? But ZOMG! WHAT IF WE CAN'T TRADE FRANK THOMAS????

Thomas as a bench player can't play a position.

He can't do that as a starter either.

I can't wait for you to print your mailbag. I want to discuss how retarded this decision is some more. I didn't think the Blue Jays offense could get worse this year, but wow....just wow. Congratulations Toronto. Way to completely waste the success of a very promising pitching staff by sinking your offensive production into a wide, wide, Barajas-shaped hole. Watch out, David Ortiz.....your team might suddenly decide that Sean Casey and Kevin Cash need at-bats more than you do.

(I want to clarify the source of my -4.2 runs for Thomas's baserunning. The stat is Equivalent Baserunning Runs, which are calculated by Dan Fox in his excellent essay in Baseball Prospectus 2008 entitled "The Tortoise, The Hare, and Juan Pierre." The calculations are easy to follow and make a ton of sense. As it turns out, in a typical year like 2007, the difference between the best baserunner in the league (Juan Pierre, +11.6 EqBRR) and the worst (Ryan Garko, -8.8 EqBRR) is about two wins. And yet Pierre still isn't better than Garko. When taken in a team sense, the best baserunning team in baseball (Phillies) was between 3 and 3.5 wins better than the worst (Astros). So yeah. Baserunning. Not that big a deal. Just thought I'd share....it was a pretty interesting analysis.)

Griffity Griffity Griff

Apartment life is great! My roommate and his girlfriend are excellent cooks, so I am eating very well these days. Much better than all the pizza and fast food that I used to get back when I lived in my mom's basement. That was back when I was a "blogger". Now I'm just some guy who writes on a website.

Anyway, onto the focus of today's "You Suckings", Richard Griffin. If you take the trouble to read his mailbag, he's a pretty informative guy. He might know more hard facts about his team than anyone I've seen (or at least usually he does his research). So why oh why does he show up here? Well, simply because often times he chooses to agree with readers in some messed up way rather than reporting the truth.

Here's the relevant part of the question:

Q: Richard,

I love your column and candor during the season. What do you think is the biggest thing missing from the Toronto offence?

a) Solid clutch hitter;

b) Speed;

c) Too many big bats with low averages, versus guys that can get on base (making long rallies tough to come by);

d) A combination of all of the above.

Greg Lawrie, United Kingdom

OK, Richard, it's a multiple choice question. There are 4 choices. Acceptable answers are a), b), c), and the one that shouldn't have even been written into the qusetion, d). Good luck!

As for your question that features four options.

a) Yes they need a solid clutch hitter. Two-out with runners in scoring position tells you a lot. You can't hand the situation off to the next batter. Jays hitting with two outs through Monday: Troy Glaus .180, Reed Johnson .143, John McDonald .211, Lyle Overbay .139, Alex Rios .216, Matt Stairs .174, Vernon Wells .180. Team .220.

Not really false, given those numbers, but, and there are a few qualifiers on this, there really is no such thing as a clutch hitter. Troy Glaus doesn't have any genetic dysfunction that prevents him from getting base hits with two outs (John McDonald does...he's bad at baseball). Fact of the matter is, that's just pure coincidence that the Jays are so far below their average with 2 outs. Also, note that these are not the averages with 2 outs, runners in scoring position, just the overall two-out averages, which tell you very, very little about how "clutch" the Jays have been.

b) Yes they need more speed. The Jays have 41 steals and have yielded 109. Rios has 12 steals to lead the team, but is no longer batting leadoff and has the brakes put on. Johnson has speed but is not a base stealer. Wells is a great instinctive base runner, but has eight steals. They need a better pure leadoff hitter and then can bat Johnson No. 2.

No. They don't need more speed in the form of steals. Stolen bases, because of the fact that stealing bases at a 75% clip is essentially break-even for run production, are very, very uncorrelated to the amount of runs a team scores. The league is stealing bases this year at a 73.75% rate, so teams trying to steal bases at all has probably decreased the amount of runs we've seen this season. I repeat. Stolen bases are the absolute most overrated commodity in an offensive player.

I really don't think I've beat this into people enough, so starting with the team that has stolen the most bases in the AL, the Angels, and ending with the Blue Jays (who have somehow stolen less than Billy Beane's A's), here are the rankings for total runs scored.

LAA: 4th
BAL: 9th
TB: 12th
MIN: 13th
NYY: 1st
DET: 2nd
TEX: 6th
BOS: 3rd
SEA: 5th
KC: 11th
CLE: 7th
CHW: 14th
OAK: 8th
TOR: 10th

Very little, if any, relationship. Here comes the part that really bothers me.

c) Yes, they have too many big bats with low on-base numbers.

Who? Who are these "big bats" with low on-base numbers? Other than Vernon Wells, who is at a poor .314 clip, here are some "big bat" OBPs.

Alex Rios: .366
Frank Thomas: .371
Troy Glaus: .345
Lyle Overbay: .343
Matt Stairs: .363

Griffin, this is your own team. I can't tell you how stupid and lazy that was. You want to know the REAL reason your team doesn't score? Reed Johnson is leading off for your team and OBPing .324. He doesn't have power, either. Royce Clayton and John McDonald platooning at short features two of the worst hitters in the game. Adam Lind has 235 ABs with a .274 OBP. The Jays can't afford to have such bad players being in the lineup without a single guy with a .300 EqA (Alex Rios: .294) to counterbalance them.

d) Yes, yes, yes, yes.

This was a multiple choice question, and you just answered "yes" to every choice.

A Quickie from the Griffbag

Here's the question, sent in by a fan

: "The attitude in this clubhouse is to be happy with any win and to bemoan the injuries as the reason for failure."

Richard, my friend, you are MONEY! I'm relieved that this opinion was finally published by someone covering the team. In many ways the talent is there, but the attitude and intangibles are severely lacking – have been for some time. If I were Ricciardi, I'd try to resolve THAT issue ahead of most others, because as long as this group remains mentally impotent, they will continue to struggle and underachieve as they have this year – and last. Quite frankly, I'm sick of the excuses. Maybe they could use a Hillenbrand-type to stir the drink a little bit, get each other on edge. As individuals, these guys seem to like each other – but maybe that's the problem. Maybe they need someone to light a fire, because the fire just ain't there right now. Pro sports is not a fraternity or book club. Assembling a group of friends is not always conducive to success, as we've seen with our beloved Jays.

Lets review, briefly, some points this fan made.

1) The Blue Jays have talent, but are underachieving due to attitude and intangibles (which, I'm assuming, could have won them 10 extra games to tie them with Boston).
2) J.P. Ricciardi should be trying to solve that issue, as opposed to "other" issues, which I take to mean the actual scoring and preventing of runs.
3) They could use someone like Shea Hillenbrand, so that they would have someone remiding them that "the ship is sinking" whenever they looked at the clubhouse dry-erase board.
4) The problem with the Blue Jays is that they like each other.

OK Richard, tell this fan why he's wrong.

A: There are some keen observations in your question.

Not a good start.

Clearly, it seems every player that is brought into the Jays organization via trade or free agency is thrilled with the clubhouse atmosphere and claims to feel immediately comfortable.

Explain why this is bad. This is not bad.

The hotheads who want to win more than they want to breathe, guys like Shea Hillenbrand and Gregg Zaun find themselves being looked at like two-headed freaks by the comfy denizens of the Dead Wildcard Society.

.....What?

(this is also the first time I've EVER heard of Gregg Zaun being talked about in this way)

Instead of creeping around the clubhouse firing foam darts out of high-powered toy guns and pie-ing each other at the drop of a W and racing in mascot races, these guys should get nasty with the losing, or complacent attitudes and be better than a .500 team – which they definitely have more than enough talent to be.

In this league and division, the Blue Jays have exactly enough talent to be an approximately .500 team.

Personally I blame Aaron Hill.....that guy's having waaaaay too much fun.

I don't buy into the viewpoint that good team chemistry wins games, but this is quite possibly the first time it was argued that having teammates pissed off at each other will help a team win.

It Seems Like Richard Griffin Will Agree With Any Comments His Readers Send Him

Here's a couple snippets from this week's Richard Griffin mailbag....Griffbag as I like to call it.

Q: Richard,

Can you please tell me when John Gibbons will start using his closer for one inning only?

Has he not learned yet that the 4-5 out close is not beneficial in the long run for a team? Accardo has been fantastic all year for the Jays and should continue in the role. After he was put in for the 5-out save against the Yankees, his numbers have decreased.

Shouldn't Gibby and J.P. have realized after B.J. Ryan's injury that one inning is enough?

Grant Brevitt, Thorold

pnoles: Here's the backstory on why this isn't a good point by Grant. That 5-out save against the Yankees was the first time that Accardo has gone more than an inning since becoming the closer. It's not like this was becoming a habit. Grant seems to be implying that Accardo's poor performances on June 7th and June 8th were a result of pitching an extra 2/3 of an inning on May 29th. Between May 29th and June 7th, Accardo threw only two innings (and they were scoreless). Granted, Gibbons threw him 1.1 innings on the 7th, but Accardo had only thrown one inning in the week leading up to that. There's no way you can argue he was subject to "pitcher abuse". The fact of the matter is, that 1.07 ERA of his wasn't going to last, and he was bound to give up his share of runs eventually. Ok. Enough nicely correcting non-analysts. It's time to make fun of analysts! Take it away, Richard Griffin! I'm sure you'll correct this man's error!

A: Gibbons did learn his lesson with regard to B.J. Ryan last year, when he rode his lefty closer in the first half like a rented emu and watched him struggle after the All-Star Game.

First of all....rented emu???? I think Jay Mariotti snuck into your jokebook.

Second, B.J. Ryan was a great closer last year, but come on Griffin, he's only human! He was bound to give up runs at some point in the year. July was a rough month for Ryan, but look at what happened in August and September! Just 2 earned runs combined! Aren't the last two months of the season supposed to be when a pitcher starts to feel overworked? Ryan's workload wasn't decreased in July as opposed to the first three months, so if you think that he was fresher for August and September, you're dead wrong. You don't have to agree with what people tell you.

Gibbons swore coming into this spring that he would use Ryan exclusively in one-inning situations and, other than one or two times, he lived with that decision.

Gotta love the ol' "other than one or two times" method of covering one's ass so that one doesn't have to actually research anything. This actually never happened, Richard, you can look for yourself here. Ryan never threw more than 1 inning in a game this season.

However, the fact that Accardo and Jason Frasor were both taking over the Jays' ninth-inning role as former middle relievers and setup men, plus the fact that they were younger than Ryan with fewer innings, Gibbons thought he could get away with 4-5 out saves. Wrong!

Frasor was actually more successful in saving games when he came in during the 8th, and either way, it's too small a sample size to draw a conclusion about him. Accardo has only been called on twice before the 9th inning in his month's tenure as closer, and you're going to blame him finally regressing to the mean on two 4-5 out save appearances spaced a week and a half apart with little work in-between? It's JUNE, Richie, there's no way Accardo is exhausted. He's thrown 26.2 innings so far this season. Pretty humdrum for a regular MLB reliever. See?

Make no mistake. Accardo will be the man the rest of the year and with the re-emergence of Frasor and the effectiveness of Casey Janssen and Scott Downs, there is no need to abuse Accardo again.

Oh. You don't get it.

To excuse Gibbons, managing is a day-to-day job so when you have a lead and feel you can win that day, it is an extremely difficult decision to go with a setup man in the eighth when your closer is fresh. The big picture is always blurry

Please, allow Richard Griffin to excuse John Gibbons for trying to win a tight baseball game.

Q: Hey Richard.

I'm a huge Jays fan from way out here on the east coast in Newfoundland and I love your weekly question and answer column. I'm visiting Toronto towards the end of June and will be taking the family to our first-ever live Jays game on June 22 (the Rockies are in town). Where is the best spot in the Rogers Centre to watch the game, regardless of price? Any suggestions on making the game as enjoyable as possible for me and the kids? Thanks for the info!

Luke Joyce, Bay Bulls, Nfld.

Haha.....a true piece of cake to answer. Or is it?

A: To me, the best places at the Rogers Centre to watch the game are the first few rows of the upper deck behind home plate (especially if the kids are real ball fans where they can see the game unfold in front of them) or the first few rows up from the field, down the right field line, preferably just past the end of the visitors dugout. If you get into the stadium when the gates first open the Rockies will be taking their batting practice. Take the kids to the first base side on either end of their dugout and they will be able to see the major leaguers up close and maybe even get some autographs.

Upper deck - arguable that the first couple of rows give you the best perspective, but you want them to sit further down the line from the dugout and not behind it? And behind the visitors dugout rather than the home dugout? This family is full of BLUE JAYS FANS. Why are we talking about getting Troy Tulowitzki's autograph out of the best place to see a Blue Jays game?

Of course there is really nothing like the close to the action seats right behind the plate at field level that get all the exposure on TV. But, in terms of bang for the buck, they aren't the best deal.

Read the part of the question again right after "Where is the best spot in the Rogers Centre to watch the game,".

Ah well, this is all I have time for.....to summarize the rest of the Griffbag, everyone who writes in to Griffin is right, and everybody has a great point, and no one is wrong, and analysts don't need to offer informed opinions, because their purpose is to affirm things other people already know or believe, not to offer a new point of view.