Bill Simmons: Master of cause and effect

This is long, and if you have a brain, you'll realize what's idiotic about it after the first sentence of Bill's response, but I'm pasting the whole thing just so you can enjoy Bill's amazing powers of deduction in full.

Q: I know you love these, so here's a great NFL what if: What if Andrew Luck came out after his junior year? If he comes out in 2011, Carolina takes him first and Denver takes Cam second (missing out on Von Miller, and one year later, Peyton Manning). In the 2012 Draft, Indy is then faced with either picking RG III or keeping Manning (and trading the pick), If they choose RG III, Washington misses out on Black Jesus. That's 4 franchises who had their course of history changed dramatically.
—Dan, Denver

SG: And you left out Von Miller (who jumped a level and became the league's most destructive pass rusher this season) going third in 2011 to … (wait for it) … Buffalo! So that's five franchises affected. In that same draft, Miller bumps Marcel Dareus down a pick, so who knows if Cincy passes up A.J. Green for him at no. 4, or if Arizona passes up Patrick Peterson for him at no. 5. (That's seven franchises affected.) And maybe Cleveland just picks the leftover guy (either Dareus, Green or Peterson) at no. 6 instead of trading down to Atlanta (who picked Julio Jones at no. 6), and maybe San Francisco picks Jones at no. 7 instead of Aldon Smith (now we're up to 10 affected franchises), or maybe San Francisco picks Smith, then Tennessee grabs Jones at no. 8 instead of Jake Locker (now my head is starting to hurt). Let's at least agree that 2011's top 10 unfolds differently, with three major chess pieces for 2012 contenders (Miller, Jones and Smith) possibly landing elsewhere.

Also, Denver never would have traded for Manning this spring if they already had Cam, which means Manning lands in either Arizona or San Francisco. (Hold on, we have to wait for Larry Fitzgerald to stop wailing.) For all we know, Manning could be throwing bombs to Julio Jones on an undefeated Niners team right now. So that's a great "What If" by Dan from Denver — and he didn't even mention Luck's fourth Stanford year inadvertently making the 2012 Cardinals eligible for the Ewing Theory, leading to last weekend's shocking upset over Oregon and our eventual Notre Dame–Alabama national championship game (13 teams affected). Amazing.

So what you're saying is.... if an elite, top of the first round college QB... were to be drafted in a different year than the one in which he was originally drafted, by a different team... you can imagine lots of other picks in those two drafts also changing?

/mind asplode

Loud idiot vehemently defends megalomaniac

Watched Indiana/Georegtown tonight.  Reminded me of how boring I find college basketball--these are two great teams, playing a hotly contested game, and I still wasn't feeling it at all.  (When I say "watched" I mean it was on in the background as I ate, did shit on my laptop, etc.)  Anyways, DICKIE V BABY was calling the game and he only brought up how great his friend Bob Knight is about 25 times.  Most of it was just stupid bluster.  "Indiana in a zone... you know, Bobby Knight would have never gone to the zone!"  "This point guard is a Bobby Knight kind of player!  He'd be perfect in a Bobby Knight system!"  HOLY SHIT HE GOT FIRED 12 YEARS AGO WHO GIVES A FUCK.  Anyways, I said most of it was just harmless bluster.  Then there was this, which was thoroughly embarrassing.  (I no longer have DVR, #firstworldproblems, so this is not word for word but it's close.)

You know, this has to be said... there is no reason Bobby Knight should have been fired.  It's a shame he's not still there.  Some coaches just belong at certain schools.  Bobby Knight belonged at Indiana and he should have retired there.  When they wanted to fire him, there should have been a meeting of the minds, and they should have been able to work out any differences that may have existed at that time.

Dick, it's bad enough that Knight was physically attacking his own players.  But I think it's pretty safe to say the school's administration made the right move to remove him once he moved on from that to attacking students who weren't even involved with the fucking team.  I'm not Warren Buffet, but from a business perspective, I think it's generally a bad idea to have a high level employee who likes hitting your customers.  Furthermore, if you absolutely have to defend Knight, which no one should, at least say he was misunderstood, or was really a nice guy deep down who had learned his lesson, or some other nonsense like that which is definitely not true but if true would constitute grounds for keeping him around.  Simply going with "he deserved to retire at Indiana" is a horrible sales pitch when your goal is to convince an audience that a guy who hits and chokes people should definitely have a job.  Bonus stupidity points for going with the legalese "any differences that may have existed" (that part I remember verbatim, or close), and refusing to acknowledge that there actually was a problem when Knight got shitcanned.

Only four and a half months until the season is over and Vitale mercifully disappears for the summer.

OK, I will take Mitch Albom's bait

Undoubtedly someone has already linked you to this, and it's possible you've already seen someone make fun of it.  Still, I've got to take a crack at it.  It's just too fucking awesome to pass up.

The eyes have it.

That pun, which he will go on to repeat in his final sentence, is probably the best part about this whole article.  Not because it's clever or insightful (or even sensical--it's not like the MVP vote is a yes/no proposition like HOF voting is or something); just because it's not as offensive as everything else this cretin writes.

In a battle of computer analysis versus people who still watch baseball as, you know, a sport, 

It is a well-known fact that people who like computer analysis watch baseball as a romantic comedy.

what we saw with our Detroit vision 

Detroit Vision (patent pending): from the company that brought you Cleveland Smell.

was what most voters saw as well:

Cabrera won the Triple Crown and happened to play for a team that wasn't in the same division as Texas and Oakland.  I, too, saw all that.

Miguel Cabrera is the Most Valuable Player in the American League this year.

Shouldn't have been.  Chris W put it best: he was a deserving candidate, just definitely not the most deserving candidate.  I think that's a very levelheaded and fair way to describe his credentials.  Now let's watch Mitch work his magic.

"It means a lot," he told reporters over the phone from Miami. 

(Between rounds of shots)

"I'm very thankful. ... I thought it was gonna be very close."

So did everyone. But the debate ended Thursday night when the results were announced, with Cabrera earning 22 of the 28 first-place votes from the Baseball Writers' Association of America. It reinforced what Tigers fans have been saying all season: This guy is a monster.

All season long, Tigers fans have been trying to convince other fans that a guy who has a career triple slash of .318/.395/.561 was having yet another awesome offensive year.  But those other fans wouldn't listen!  They were too busy doing computer nerd things on computers, and refusing to watch any baseball.  Finally, some vindication for those Tigers fans, in the form of acknowledgement from the always-credible BBWAA.

It also answered the kind of frenzied cyberspace argument that never shadowed baseball 20 years ago but may never stop shadowing it now.

Wasn't life so much better when we had less information?  That's how I feel.  It's so annoying that the rise of the internet and the computer age has allowed us to expand our baseball analysis knowledge base.

Statistics geeks insisted Cabrera was less worthy than Angels rookie centerfielder Mike Trout. Not because Trout's traditional baseball numbers were better. They weren't. Cabrera had more home runs (44), more runs batted in (139) and a better batting average (.330) than Trout and everyone else in the American League. It gave him the sport's first Triple Crown in 45 years.

The funny part is, if Trout gets 3 more hits and see his BA go up to .331, ruining Cabrera's Triple Crown, you can bet that Trout would have won the MVP.

But Trout excelled in the kind of numbers that weren't even considered a few years ago, mostly because A) They were impossible to measure, and B) Nobody gave a hoot.

A is correct.  B is not.  We've been keeping track of errors for decades because people wanted to have a way to quantify defensive ability.

Today, every stat matters. There is no end to the appetite for categories -- from OBP to OPS to WAR. 

"There is no end to the appetite for categories" -- guy who gets paid a generous salary to express thoughts through writing

I mean, OMG! 

LOL

The number of triples hit while wearing a certain-colored underwear is probably being measured as we speak.

It probably is not.  But highest OBP while wearing certain colors of underwear?  That is most definitely "being measured" (again, Albom is a professional journalist) right now.

So in areas such as "how many Cabrera home runs would have gone out in Angel Stadium of Anaheim" or "batting average when leading off an inning" or "Win Probability Added," Trout had the edge. At least this is what we were told.

DON'T BELIEVE EVERYTHING THE TROUT-RUN LIBERAL MEDIA TELLS YOU, SHEEPLE.  KOOKY STATS LIKE "BATTING AVERAGE LEADING OFF AN INNING" ARE NOT TO BE TRUSTED.  JUST STICK TO RBIS AND DETROIT VISION APPROVAL RATING.

I mean, did you do the math?  I didn't. 

Why bother when people around Detroit had already concluded that Cabrera "was a monster?"  CASE CLOSED

I like to actually see the sun once in a while.

PARDON YOUR ZINGER

Plus he has intangibles

That's a subheadline, not an editing mistake, but I think he should have just ended the article there.  What would the computer people be able to say in response?

Besides, if you live in Detroit, you didn't need a slide rule. 

The best part about jokes like that is that the defensive metrics that showed Trout to be an awesome CF and fuel his enormous WAR total cannot exist without extremely diligent viewing of actual game footage.  That's not to say I'm some UZRophile or something--I think most defensive metrics are crappy.  But I'd still rather have them than not have them, you know?

This was an easy choice. 

So far the only ways in which you've compare the two guys are BA, HR, RBI (all numbers which can be trusted and which favor Cabrera), how playing in Anaheim would have affected Cabrera's HR total (favors Trout, supposedly), batting average leading off an inning (favors Trout, but not a number to be trusted, apparently) and win probability added (WHAT THE HELL IS THAT?).  You haven't talked about defense or stolen bases, which are traditionally the kind of things that the I LOVE ME SOME PLAYERS WHO PLAY THE GAME THE RIGHT WAY crowd loves, and which are more or less the reason Trout's WAR total was so much higher than Cabrera's.  I know I'm simultaneously preaching to the choir and shouting into the void here, but holy dogshit, if you're going to make the case for why A was better than B, simply saying "A was great" isn't a very good way to do it.

People here watched Cabrera, 29, tower above the game in 2012. Day after day, game after game, he was a Herculean force. Valuable? What other word was there? 

Defensively inadequate?  Can I use two words like that?

How many late-inning heroics? How many clutch hits? And he only missed one game all year. 

That last stat really makes Justin Verlander's 2011 MVP look silly in hindsight.  Guy didn't even play 75% of the time!

"During the season, a lot of guys tell me I'm gonna be the MVP," Cabrera said, laughing. "But they said the same thing to Trout."
Yes, it's true, Trout is faster, Trout is a better defensive player, 

Here we go!

Trout is a leadoff hitter, and Trout edged Cabrera in several of those made-for-Microsoft categories.

4 WAR is not really an "edged him out" margin, but OK, go ahead.

But if you are going to go molten deep 

Again, this man is paid to use the English language effectively.

into intangibles, 

Like playing defense and stealing bases?

why stop at things like "which guy hit more homers into the power alleys?" (A real statistic, I am sorry to say.)

Still not an intangible.  But in any case, who wants to stop there?  This is the most bizarre and confusing straw man I've ever seen.  "ALL YOU INTANGIBLES LOVERS OUT THERE WHO WANT ME TO CONSIDER TROUT'S DEFENSE AND SPEED, JUST STOP PUSHING HIS POWER ALLEY HOME RUN TOTAL ON ME ALREADY!  WHO CARES ABOUT THE INTANGIBLE THAT IS POWER ALLEY HOME RUNS?"  What?

Why not also consider such intangibles as locker-room presence? Teammates love playing around -- and around with -- Miggy. He helps the room.

When he's not being a total distraction because his wife beat him up and he got a DUI, yes.

How about his effect on pitchers? Nobody wanted the embarrassment of him slamming a pitch over the wall. The amount of effort pitchers expended on Cabrera or the guy batting ahead of him surely took its toll and affected the pitches other batters saw. 

Surely!  Meanwhile, Trout spent the whole season giving opposing pitchers scouting reports on his teammates in exchange for an agreement that those pitchers would throw him BP fastballs.  Hardly a team player.

Why not find a way to measure that? (Don't worry. I'm sure someone is working on it as we speak.)

Why not take three seconds to realize that Trout did the exact same damn thing all season, while batting leadoff?

What about the debilitating power of a three-run homer? How many opposing teams slumped after Cabrera muscled one out? 

Clearly all of them, as evidenced by Detroit's 88-74 record, obtained while playing in the same division as the AL's two worst teams.

How about team confidence? You heard everyone from Prince Fielder to Justin Verlander speak in awed tones about being on the same team as Cabrera. Doesn't that embolden teammates and bring out their best?

I sure don't remember seeing any articles about how Trout energized the Angels and was more or less the sole reason their season turned around the time he was called up.  Anybody else catch any of those?

How about the value of a guy who could shift from first to third base -- as Cabrera did this past season -- to make room for Fielder? Ask manager Jim Leyland how valuable that is.

Yeah, nothing like playing a fat guy out of position so you can add another fat guy to your infield.  True value right there.

How about the fact that Cabrera's team made the playoffs and Trout's did not? ("Yes," countered Team Trout, "but the Angels actually won more games.") 

No response to that completely valid argument is provided.

How about the fact that Cabrera played the whole season while Trout started his in the minors? ("Yes," said the Trout Shouters, "but the Angels won a greater percentage with Trout than Detroit did with Cabrera.")

I like how he thinks that this is a knock on Trout.  Sure, he hit 30 bombs, but he only played in 139 games!  Totally invalidates everything!  /fart

How about this? How about that? The fact is, voters are not instructed to give more credence to any one category than another. Twenty-eight sportswriters, two from each AL city, decide, in their own minds, what is "valuable" and who displayed it the most.
They chose Cabrera.

By an overwhelming majority.

In the end, memories were more powerful than microchips.

I believe that was the original pitch for Forrest Gump.

Which, by the way, speaks to a larger issue about baseball. It is simply being saturated with situational statistics. What other sport keeps coming up with new categories to watch the same game? 

Basketball (PER, +/-)  Hockey (Corsi, Fenwick)  Football (QB Y/A, WR Y/Tgt)?  But wait--are those actually SPORTS, or are they computer games?  Hard to tell.

A box score now reads like an annual report. 

I'd love to be a shareholder of AlbomCorp.  Its annual reports would be awesome, they'd be like THINGS ARE GOING PRETTY GOOD, WE'RE DECLARING A DIVIDEND OF $1,000,000 PER SHARE BECAUSE WE'RE NOT SOME NERD COMPANY THAT USES NUMBERS.

And this WAR statistic -- which measures the number of wins a player gives his team versus a replacement player of minor league/bench talent (honestly, who comes up with this stuff?) 

People who like to know which baseball players are good?

-- is another way of declaring, "Nerds win!"

If you'd prefer the nerds to win after completing a series of athletic and talent show challenges, like in Revenge of the Nerds, I'm sure that can be arranged.

We need to slow down the shoveling of raw data into the "what can we come up with next?" machine. It is actually creating a divide between those who like to watch the game of baseball and those who want to reduce it to binary code.

To the extent such a divide exists, it's entirely the result of the needledicked insecurities of people like you, Mitch.  Your antiquated way of thinking is being challenged by people who like baseball just as much as you do, and have said to themselves, "Hmmmm, stats like RBIs really don't tell us that much about who's good and who isn't.  Maybe there are other, better ways to measure performance.  As someone who likes watching baseball, I'd like to discover/learn about those ways."  Since (most of you) know that you can't make the argument that old stats are more illuminating, of course you and your ilk instead attack the new stat people by saying they don't like to watch baseball, which is elephant shit.  Go read a book, then go fuck yourself, and follow that up by giving the Detroit Free Press your two weeks' notice.  You're a fucking loser and I hope you catch Crohn's disease.  

Christ, I tried to keep it lighthearted, but eventually I got worn down.  Mitch Albom is the fucking worst. 

Here's the problem with the people angrily wringing their hands and gnashing their teeth about the Marlins/Blue Jays trade

They are not acknowledging that the trade is a good move for the Marlins.  "They" includes really good writers like Jeff Passan, who carries on forever here about what a piece of shit Jeffrey Loria is.

[Loria and team president David Samson] were two men who for years lied about their finances, lied about their intentions, lied all to get Miami to build them a $634 million ballpark that was supposed to end this wretched cycle of turning a major league franchise into a swap meet.

Yes. They stink.

And yet all this time, throughout the lies, the SEC investigation, the embarrassing payrolls, the pocketing of revenue-sharing dollars...

All of these are shitty things that Loria has done/been involved with.  And yet: the trade was still the right thing for the Marlins to do.  They won 69 games last year.  There's no reason to expect the Nationals or Braves to get worse this coming season.  Would it be better for the Marlins to continue to trot out an expensive but non-competitive team?  When the Red Sox pulled this same exact shit three months ago, there wasn't a peep about embarrassment to the game or other such horseshit.  That's mostly because Loria is a known asshole and John Henry isn't (to the degree he should be), but the fact is that both teams made almost the exact same move and both of them are better off for it.  I'm not the world's biggest Jonah Keri fan, but he hits the nail on the head here.  It's worth a read.  To wit:

Thing is, the Marlins weren't going to win with the players they had, at least not for the foreseeable future. Last offseason, they signed Reyes, Buehrle, and Heath Bell while narrowly whiffing on Albert Pujols, breaking the bank in an attempt to build an exciting, winning team as they moved into a new ballpark. After all that, they won 69 games, finishing second to last in the National League in runs scored while allowing more runs than all but four other NL clubs. Free agents tend to produce their best results early in long-term deals, while they're still at or near their prime, then fall off in later years. The Marlins got productive Year 1 performances from Reyes and Buehrle, bundled them with a talented but hugely injury-prone pitcher in Johnson plus a couple of fungible veterans, and cashed them in for some intriguing prospects, plus the GDP of a Pacific island nation in salary relief.

If the Jeff Pearlmans of the world could stop crying about how the sanctity of baseball has been forever tarnished by this deal, maybe they'd realize what Keri realizes.  But what's the one thing that Keri:

It's a system, first and foremost, in favor of owners who fall in line with the commissioner's office. ... Loria hasn't made McCourt money from baseball yet. But he's pulled off a series of shrewd and increasingly profitable business moves, exploiting all the advantages afforded to members of MLB's ownership cartel.

and Passan:

[N]ot a word from the commissioner. Not a lamentation that by the time the balloon payments on the stadium hit, Miami taxpayers will owe more than $2.4 billion. Not a sign that he intends to protect the sport from the cretins within. And not a chance, unless public outrage on the matter changes his thinking, that he'll use his best-interests-of-baseball clause to keep Jeffrey Loria and David Samson from murdering another baseball market.

agree on?  Not that anyone needed a reminder, but Bud Selig is a real cumbucket.  My advice to you: if what Loria did pisses you off, or at least seems wrong on some level, don't bitch and moan about him.  Bitch and moan about the system that allows him to be him.

SMTMQR: Gregg is too lazy to not undermine himself

I did not address most of Gregg's political items, but there's this:

And if you don't vote today, promise never, ever to complain about anyone in office, any laws they enact or anyone they place on the courts.

Thanks, unclever bumper sticker attached to a station wagon driven by a high school civics teacher.

Not only did the Oregon-USC and Tennessee-Troy games this weekend break 100 points, in other college action it was Colgate 65, Lafayette 41; Knox 63, Lawrence 42; Carson-Newman 66, Tusculum 36; Augsburg 58, Macalester 41; Ripon 50, Monmouth of Illinois 47.

FUCK ALABAMA, OREGON, KANSAS STATE AND NOTRE DAME.  THIS IS THE FOOTBALL THAT YOU READERS SHOULD CARE ABOUT. THE AUGSBURG ATOMS HAVE NO SELFISH ME-FIRST HIGHLY DRAFTED TYPES.

Sour Play of the Week No. 2: City of Tampa leading 7-3, Oakland faced fourth-and-13 at midfield. The Raiders have executed some nice fake kicks in recent seasons, including a 35-yard run out of punt formation in a 2011 win over the Texans. But that fake punt began on fourth-and-2. At Snoopy Stadium, Pittsburgh's fake field goal attempt was stopped at the Jersey/A goal line when backup corner Michael Coe did not fall for the fake. But the call was promising, since it was only fourth-and-1. A fake punt that begins on fourth-and-13 doesn't stand much chance, the Raiders gaining 4 four yards. Sour.

I include this, like a few other cuts in this post, because it's great cognitive dissonance on Greggggggg's part. Fortune favors the bold! Except when it does not. You're at midfield, don't punt! Except when you should have. This guy puts examples of his dumb maxims failing to hold true in his own damn columns. It really boggles the mind.

Victory was sweet for the vagabond Steelers -- the home team looked like the ones who had left at 4 a.m. that day because they had no hotel. In the fourth quarter, the Pittsburgh offensive line took over, dominating the Jersey/A front seven and helping undrafted Isaac Redman of Division II Bowie State to a career day. It was a sign of the Giants' lack of focus that, Pittsburgh leading 24-20 with 2:45 remaining, Jason Pierre-Paul jumped up to celebrate wildly following a routine tackle. Celebrating after routine plays is bad enough -- celebrating when losing shows lack of focus.

No. Celebrating a tackle when you're losing by 40 shows lack of focus.  If you do it when trailing by 4 and needing a big stop to get your offense the ball back, it shows passion. But if Pierre-Paul were not a first round draft pick you can bet your fucking socks this item wouldn't have made the column. UNDRAFTED DIVISION III PLAYER SHOWS EMOTION: THAT'S WHAT FOOTBALL IS ALL ABOUT.  HIGHLY DRAFTED GLORY BOY SHOWS EMOTION: THAT'S AN AUTOMATIC LOSS.

Unified Field Theory of Creep: Many, many readers including Marcia Bowen of Menlo Park, Calif., noted that Mercedes began running Santa-themed television ads on Nov. 1. Not only that, but the ads proclaimed the start of a "Winter Event" sale -- seven weeks before the beginning of winter in North America. Many other readers including Erin Campbell of Stowe, Vt., noted Home Depot running a Christmas ad on Nov. 2; many other readers including Steffie Eldrews of Austin, Texas, reported a Ford Motors Christmas commercial on Nov. 3.

No one fucking cares. No one. You even promised to stop running this item this year unless it was extra special circumstances. Christmas commercials in November are not extra special, unless you've been in a coma for the last decade.

New Orleans Wins Siesta Bowl: The "Monday Night Football" game, Philadelphia at New Orleans, should have been dubbed the Siesta Bowl, because the loser could take a nice siesta with its season over.

Great breakdown of that "joke." Very necessary. I hope the Eagles had a good time in the Big Sleazy. I call it that because New Orleans's commonly accepted nickname is the Big Easy, but there are a lot of casinos and hookers there, which are kind of sleazy, and sleazy rhymes with easy.

Philadelphia gained 447 yards yet lost badly. The Eagles have the NFL's most elusive quarterback yet surrendered seven sacks. New Orleans could call big blitz after big blitz, confident the Eagles' coaching staff would not adjust, which it did not.

Same as above, with Oakland's fake punt failure. STOP ME BEFORE I BLITZ AGAIN! Unless the blitzes are working, in which case, keep blitzing. GRRRRRRRRRR RAGE RAGE RAGE RAGE

Pulling within 21 points was not the goal -- the apparent goal was to keep a shutout off Whisenhunt's résumé, so that when he faces his end-of-season review and might be fired, one of the complaints won't be, "We got shut out on 'Monday Night Football.'" A coach who's more concerned with keeping a shutout off his résumé than with trying to win is a coach who should receive cab fare to the airport.

Behind "tenths of a second don't exist," I'm pretty sure this is my all time second most hated Easterbrook bit. Which is saying a lot. The competition for those top spots is fierce.

To Be "Accidentally" Disconnected, Press & TMQ dislikes voicemail trots that say, "When you are finished, you may hang up." Thanks for sharing that! Here is what a TMQ corporate voicemail would sound like:
"You have reached Tuesday Morning Quarterback Enterprises. Please listen carefully as our options change at random. Ili contnue katika Kiswahili, vyombo vya habari moja. To be placed on hold, press 2. To hear a computer voice very slowly reading information you already know, press 3. To be misquoted, press 4. To complain about being misquoted, press 5. Use the telephone keypad to enter your account number, followed by the pound sign. You will be connected to someone who will immediately ask for your account number. To leave a message that will never be returned, press 6. To hear these options again, press 7. This call may be recorded for use against you."

/crickets
/tumbleweed
/fart sound from nowhere in particular

At least the fact that he stopped doing "Cheerleader of the Week" means he stopped doing those cringe-inducing "here's what this cheerleader might sound like if she were leading a cheer at her other job as a teacher/lab technician/orthodontist's assistant" bits.

Facing fourth-and-goal on the Carolina 2 in the first half, the Redskins went for it. Prized rookie RGIII took a shotgun snap and ran right behind pulling linemen and power backs, a designed quarterback keeper all the way. The attempt failed, as Griffin vanished into a thicket of bodies. The play had begun on the right hashmark -- meaning Skins coaches called a student-body-right style rush to the short side of the field, where there was little space to begin with. What kind of call was that? Maybe the kind of call you make when in place of helmets, your players are wearing what appear to be hollowed-out bowling balls.

FORTUNE FAVORS THE BOLD! Except when it doesn't, because of a bad play call, which is kind of like saying "fortune favors the team that makes good play calls and executes them well, regardless of whether those play calls are conservative or aggressive."

Buck-Buck-Brawckkkkkkk:Trailing 7-0, the Bills had fourth-and-2 on the Texans' 4; amiable, bumbling Buffalo coach Chan Gailey sent in the field goal unit. For the remainder of the contest, Buffalo snapped only once in the Houston red zone. The Bills were a heavy underdog on the road, facing one of the league's top defenses. Settling for three points within view of the goal line was running up the white flag. For about the 10th consecutive season, all Bills fans have to hope for is that the head coach and general manager will be fired and yet another roster housecleaning will begin.

So kicking a field goal on 4th and goal from the 2 is dumb, and going for it on 4th and goal from the 2 is dumb. Got it.

Sportsmanship Watch: Denver leading 31-23 with possession in the final minute, as the Broncos knelt on the ball, Cincinnati did not charge and attempt to injure opposition players, the tactic Schiano the Weasel uses at the Buccaneers. Afterward the Broncos and Bengals took hands, and head coaches politely shook hands. This is sportsmanship.

Green Bay leading Arizona 31-17, the Packers reached first-and-goal inside the two-minute warning, and knelt on the ball. This is sportsmanship.

Pittsburgh leading 24-20 with first-and-10 at the two-minute warning, the Giants out of timeouts, Jersey/A did not charge and attempt to injure opposition players. Afterward the Steelers and Giants took hands, and head coaches politely shook hands. This is sportsmanship.

Go fuck yourself.  Oh my God, please, for the love of all that is holy, let Greg Schiano's "bull rush during the kneeldown to try to force a fumble" tactic win the Buccaneers a game this year. How great would that be? Imagine the hand-wringing and outrage. Jeter did not test positive for steroids before Halloween, so I don't have to donate $1,000 to charity for that, but I'll roll that commitment over for the Schiano scenario. Please let that happen.  Please please please please please please please please please

I try to avoid posting about bloggers

But this dude blogs for Yahoo so he probably makes decent money for his work (well, some money anyways).  That makes him fair game as far as I'm concerned, and besides, oh my goodness gracious what a fucking idiot.

Where does Andrew Luck ank among NFL quarterbacks at this moment? 

Well, in terms of yards passing, he's now second overall in the league.  That's pretty good, although it's also a function of the fact that his team's running backs are Donald Brown and Vick Ballard.  If you want to use ANY other metric of QB performance, you'll see that Luck ranks pretty low.  24th in QB rating.  29th in completion percentage.  Tied for 17th in touchdown passes.  I can't find a stats site that will rank the league's QBs by TD/INT ratio, but his is 1.25, and that's pretty shitty.  Luck has definitely played decently, especially for a rookie, but he's probably not among the top 20 QBs in the league.

Are there 10 quarterbacks in the league better than him? 

Yes.  There are many more than that, in fact.

Five?

Manning, Brady, Ryan, Rodgers, Roethlisberger.  And a bunch of other guys.  Fellow rookie RGIII is outplaying Luck by a pretty significant margin by passing stats alone; add in Griffin's running ability and he's way, way, way better than Luck right now.  Not that RGIII hasn't also received his share of undue hyperbolic praise.  But if someone is going to write an article about how Luck is inserting himself into the MVP discussion (oh yes, he's about to do that, just wait), it seems like "he's not even the best rookie QB in the league" is a good place to start with a counterargument.

What Luck is doing in Indianapolis so far this year is among the most impressive feats a rookie has ever pulled off. 

He's throwing for a lot of yards, in part because he's 3rd in the league in attempts per game with 42.  He's been pretty average.  I know the history of the NFL is littered with crappy rookie QB performances, but it's not like he's setting the world on fire.

Behind his NFL rookie record 433 passing yards, Indianapolis beat Miami 23-20 to improve to 5-3. In a watered-down AFC, the Colts have a great shot at a playoff berth, which is amazing.

The Colts have beaten the Packers, I'll give them that.  On the other hand they've also lost to Jacksonville and been completely humiliated by the fucking Jets.  Their remaining schedule has 5 road games and 3 home games; they play Houston twice and New England.  They'll probably finish 8-8 and if they make the playoffs it'll be predominantly a function of the AFC's shittiness.

This is the same franchise that was in serious danger of going 0-16 last year. 

It's also the same franchise that went 10-6 in 2010 and didn't really lose anyone other than Manning for 2011.  It's not like the roster was a total wasteland when Luck showed up.  They had a horrible 2011, but I doubt they were a true talent 2 win team.  Just like they're not a true talent 10 win team now.

The Colts didn't add much in the free-agent market this offseason, realizing they faced a long-term rebuilding project.

Their offense had/still has plenty of quality pieces.  Their defense put up poor numbers last year, but those were skewed by the fact that the defense spent so much time on the field because the offense was abominable.  It was probably a middle of the pack defense, give or take, as it is this year and was in 2010.  They traded for Vontae Davis during the preseason.  Not really a "we don't expect to be good this year" kind of move.  I hate to be the bearer of bad news but you're going to have give other Colts besides Luck credit for their "5-3 although we're really not that good" start.

But they added Luck. And now they are halfway to a 10-win season and a wild-card berth.  Sometimes success in the NFL is as easy as having a great quarterback.

Just ask any of the vapid talking heads on FOX or CBS's pre/postgame studio shows!  That must mean it's true!

Luck was dominant against the Dolphins. 

He was pretty good.  He completed 63% of his passes and led his team to a 3 point win, at home, against another mediocre team.  

He completed 30-of-48 passes for 433 yards, with two touchdowns and no interceptions. He broke the Colts' rookie record for passing in a game - set by Jack Trudeau with 359 yards in 1986, of course. Were you expecting someone else?
LOL INDEED I WAS, YOU GOT ME THERE, I AM THE HUCKLEBERRY

The Colts had a more memorable rookie quarterback who set records that Luck is gaining on. ESPN Stats and Info said Luck is the second rookie in NFL history with four 300-yard passing games. The other was Peyton Manning in 1998. Luck has half a season left to add to that total.

And if he keeps throwing 42 times per game, he's got a good shot at getting there.

Two Colts receivers had 100-yard games on Sunday: Donnie Avery and T.Y. Hilton. That's not exactly Swann and Stallworth. 

And those guys often get single coverage because the Colts still have Reggie Wayne, who's still really good.  

The Colts could go from a team that started 0-13, brought back a roster that isn't dramatically better than last season and had the horrible situation of coach Chuck Pagano being diagnosed with leukemia during the season, to one that goes to the playoffs. Luck's impact on the first half of this NFL season can't be overstated. 

It certainly can.  Congratulations for accomplishing the impossible, sir.

He should be considered a legitimate MVP candidate through eight games.

Not even close.

If Luck isn't already considered in the elite tier of NFL quarterbacks, 

He's not.

his inclusion on that list will be an easy decision very soon, 

He looks pretty decent so far.  Maybe in a few seasons, depending on like twenty different factors.  So basically he has as good a shot as any talented-but-mediocre-so-far rookie would have of eventually joining those ranks, which is probably worse than 50/50.

especially as the Colts start to add pieces around him. 

Yeah, maybe an elite #1 wide receiver type guy.  They certainly don't have one of those right now.  (He would benefit from the presence of a running back who's not Donald Brown or Vick Ballard, I'll concede that.)

Indianapolis picked the perfect year to be awful and earn the first overall pick.

There's a chance Luck will end up being better than other QBs picked #1 overall recently, like Newton or Stafford or Bradford.  There's even a chance he's as good as Manning or Elway one day.  And then there's also a chance he's never any better than middle of the pack, because playing QB in the NFL is fucking difficult.  Up until this point I had no strong feelings either way on Luck.  Thanks to this article, which other than the fact that it uses correct spelling/grammar/capitalization sounds like it was written by a poster at coltsfansmessageboard.com, I now hope he fails spectacularly.

I haven't had a lot of free time lately

I'm sure that's been evident from the frequency and length of my posts.  I barely have time to read stuff by TMQ and Simmons, let alone write about it.  That means I really need to thank noted Scott Boras shill Jon Heyman for providing me with so much stupidity in so few words:

1.  Did I mention that he's still shilling for Boras?  PRINCE WAS WORTH EVERY PENNY!  YOU HEAR ME, MLB OWNERS?  EVERY PENNYYYYYYY

2.  Pudge signed a 4 year/$40MM deal.  It was 2004, but that still doesn't come close to approaching "big ticket."

3.  Cabrera really signed a preTty big fRee Agent Deal, didn't hE?  No but seriously, the TRADE that brought him to Detroit was a memorable TRADE for a couple of reasons: the Tigers took Dontrelle Willis too, much to Florida's delight; and the centerpieces coming back to Florida were Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller, who went on to record negative WAR for Florida over the course of the next three seasons.  

4.  To Heyman's credit, Ordonez really was a free agent, and really did sign a pretty sizable deal.  Never one to ever be right, though, Heyman still identifies a guy who was paid $89MM to produce 13.2 rWAR over the course of 5 seasons (more than half of it in 2007--which is to say, during the other 4 seasons encompassed by that deal, he was a colossal failure) as a real success.

5.  Fielder just had a very good season, one in which he was payed properly.  $23MM for somewhere between 4 and 5 WAR is about right.  So if Detroit signed him to a 1 year/$23MM risk-free deal last offseason, this tweet would be kind of sort of correct (besides the issues raised in 2, 3 and 4 above).  Unfortunately, Fielder turns 29 next season and will be paid either $23MM and $24MM every year until 2020, when he's 36.  So let's maybe hold off before we call this deal a flying success.

6.  This tweet has since been deleted.  WHERE ARE YOUR ETHICS, JON?  Just kidding, I don't really care about that, Heyman is less anti-blogger than most baseball writers.  Complaints 1 through 5 stand though.

Ah, just got our annual "Joe Buck makes winning the World Series sound like winning on a Tuesday night in April" call out of the way

Kind of like a visit to the dentist or your parole officer, listening to Joe call the final out of the WS is something that isn't pleasant but has to be done every so often.  I muted my TV from about the 5th inning onwards so I actually don't even know what he said as Cabrera struck out.  I can just be pretty sure that it was awful.

Anyways, you know who's worse than Simmons?  Someone who scored a gig at Grantland solely because they're in Simmons's posse.  This has probably existed since last year, but I just stumbled into Cousin Sal's weekly prop bet column for the first time.  His jokes make Gregggggggggg's sound like they were written by Chris Rock.  But before he gets to those (and boy howdy does he ever get to them), he offers actual gambling advice.  It's pretty good.  Unfortunately that's only about 1/3 of the column.

Patriots/Rams will score in the first six minutes 

Nailed that one.

Falcons/Eagles longest touchdown over 44.5 yards

Nailed that one.

Giants to score over 25 points vs. the Cowboys

Nailed that one.

Brees 4/1 and Peyton Manning 5/1 to have the most passing yards on Sunday

Wrong, but anyone who bet on Tony Romo is either a Cowboys fan or a bad, lucky gambler.  (I'm comfortable assuming that no QB in the Niners/Cardinals MNF game is going to crack 400 yards.  Or 250.)  And it's all downhill from here--the following "bets" have little one or two sentence "explanations" that will make your already severe douchechills even douchechillier.  I didn't include those explanations.  You're welcome.

Over/under 16.5: Dislocated braids suffered by RG3 this Sunday vs. the head-hunting Steelers defense

lol he has braids

30/1: Odds that while visiting London, Tom Brady makes a sex tape with Pippa Middleton

LOL THAT WOULD NEVER HAPPEN

Honey Badger +3.5 lifetime drug arrests over Honey Boo Boo

/tumbleweed

Over/under 3.5 million: 7-year-old girls will tune in to this Sunday's Dolphins/Jets game

/fart

Over/under 3.5: Baseball fans who actually recognize ANY of the sitcom stars of whom Fox shows crowd cutaways during their World Series telecast

TAKE THAT, FOX'S VICE PRESIDENT OF CROSS PROMOTION

9.5 on a scale of 1 to 10: How much I’m enjoying my “There will be under 1.5 extra-inning World Series games” wager

As much navel-gazing as in a Simmons column, but with actual useful gambling advice!

2/1: Odds the person responsible for telling Ozzie Guillen he was fired was wearing a bulletproof vest at the time

Jesus Fucking Shitballs.  I'm not sure what level of comedy I expected, but this man has the comedic chops of a nun.

Cousin Sal Iacono (@TheCousinSal) is a writer/performer for Jimmy Kimmel Live

You've got to be fucking kidding me.

This is the state of sports broadcasting in 2012

Brian Wilson hasn't pitched since April, and of course will not pitch again until 2013.  Did that stop FOX from showing him cheering in the dugout 50 goddamn times per game, and even having Erin Andrews do a little piece about him tonight?  Of course not.  Focus group data undoubtedly said PEOPLE LOVE HIM, HIS BEARD IS CRAZY AND HE IS SILLY and so he got like 25 minutes of screen time throughout this series.  I'm not some kind of purist who hates anything done to help drive interest among casual fans.  The 2nd wild card exists for that exact purpose and I'm cool with it.  But Jesus--come on, FOX.  There are like 100 other things you could be showing/talking about.

I hate the Giants and I hate all of you.

And this is why you should never watch ESPN under any circumstances

Just clicked on my TV and switched over to Sunday NFL Countdown.  Within 10 seconds, I was treated to Berman doing a "double peace signs in the air" Richard Nixon impersonation.  About 45 seconds later, Tom Jackson made an atrocious "binders full of quarterbacks" joke.  Think I'll head outside and get some fresh air.

UPDATE: And Jim Cramer, the "Mad Money" guy (who is about as good at picking stocks as Berman is at calling baseball games) just made an appearance because of course.