It isn't broke, but they're fixing it for the money - Part II

Just last week at the Winter Meetings, baseball commissioner Bud Selig announced that baseball will likely move forward with playoff expansion for 2010. [mlb.com ]. This is not a particularly good decision, and it seems to be motivated almost exclusively by a desire to make more money for people who are already absurdly rich at the cost of deflating a great product.

This is hardly new in sports (I wrote about some NCAA football rule changes back in 2008), but it's reprehensible every time it comes up. This proposal would generate some more gate and television revenue while watering down the playoffs and awarding a fairly outrageous advantage to a division winner.

Bud, ever the master strategist, had this to offer: "Eight is a very fair number, but so is 10."

Wham! The logic train has come through on the track, steaming over all the opposition. If eight teams is fair, so is ten! QED!

Jayson Stark came out with a column back in mid-September that supports it on the grounds that it incentivizes a team playing for first place, because it gives division winners a bigger advantage. In general, Jayson Stark knows what he's talking about and the man obviously has a depth of baseball knowledge. But I don't think he's accurate here: while it could increase September excitement, do we really need to invite a worse team to the playoffs just to get the Wild-Card team to try harder?

And Jayson's article (which came out on September 10), was ostensibly written with the obvious example of the Yankees and Rays, who were both assured of a playoff spot, but were fighting for a division crown. Sure, the new system would've made their run for the division title a little more exciting ... by giving the distant-third-place Red Sox a chance to knock one of them them out?

Not to mention that this proposed system would have completely eliminated the drama in the National League this year, when the Braves, Padres and Giants all entered the last weekend knowing that only two would make the playoffs. That was an exciting last day of the season, one that would've been meaningless under the new system.

Had the system been in place this year, the Red Sox and Padres would have made the playoffs. While these teams are decent teams (unlike, say, the under .500 record which gets you into the NBA playoffs), I don't see a strong argument for these teams on the basis of fairness. In fact, not a single article I've read justifies this move on account of giving a good team the chance to win the World Series.

In fact, there are really no justifications offered for this other than it would "increase playoff drama" and "make division winners count for more", both of which, IMO, are bullshit.

If this is adopted, the division winner who would play the winner of the Wild-Card round would have a rested staff ready to face an opponent who just spent their top two or three pitchers. Although that would incentivize a team's desire to win home-field advantage, that seems wildly unfair to the division winner with the second-best record, who wouldn't get to face the WC team.

The other three major sports all have a playoff system which rewards nearly half the league with a playoff spot. This results in bloated playoffs (which nobody likes) that drag on for months at a time. The other sports have no sense of end-of-season drama, since all the good teams are assured of a playoff spot, and the only teams battling for entry are teams that don't really deserve to be there.

Baseball should be proud of its differences from the other major sports. Adding playoff teams is never going to increase the playoff drama. It's only going to increase the revenues going into the hands of owners.

Snap Cognitive Dissonance With Don Banks

From this week's Snap Judgments column:

If you've seen one Jets game this season, you've seen them all. Not to repeat myself from last Sunday's Snaps, but the resilient Jets are going to find a way to win, no matter how long the game lasts...It must be torture for New York fans to sit through these three-hour high-wire acts every Sunday, but I don't know how you can possibly take exception with the results.

Bah, whatever. The Football Outsiders say that the Jets luck unit leads the league in wins, which I tend to agree with. But I also agree with Don Banks that a win's a win and all that. However, a few paragraphs later, Banks has this to say:

The Ravens wound up making it look like a comfortable win, but if you watched Baltimore's 37-13 conquest of out-manned Carolina, you know better. The Panthers, with the very lightly experienced Brian St. Pierre at quarterback, were within seven points (at 20-13) until late in the third quarter. Baltimore really doesn't close the deal very well this season...

So let's recap:

The Jets, who have needed the last few minutes of regulation or overtime to put away the sub-.500 Dolphins, Vikings, Broncos, Lions, Browns, and Texans, are a thrilling team whose results you can't argue with.

Conversely, the Ravens, who blew out the Dolphins and Broncos, don't close games out very well and therefore, their wins can be easily discounted.

Note: Yes, I'm a Ravens fan. No, I don't think the Ravens are objectively better than the Jets. In fact, I think the Jets would probably win a rematch if they played tomorrow. I just think it's a little ridiculous that Banks and a lot of other media folk are falling over themselves to congratulate the Jets for racking up come from behind wins against teams with losing records.

Hey, You Know, It's OK, Not Like They Need the Money for Anything Else.

While I was typing that title, the anchor on CSN just mentioned that Brad Abromaitis played pretty good for Notre Dame against Chicago State tonight.

Anyway, on to the crap. Steve Kornacki is probably the only human being on the planet who isn't laughing at the Detroit Tigers right now, other than Rafael Soriano, who probably just purchased a dozen yachts or something. He's here to tell us why Joaquin Benoit is worth $16.5M.

DETROIT -- The Detroit Tigers on Wednesday reached a three-year deal with super setup man Joaquin Benoit that could end up being as important a transaction as the club makes in what promises to be a busy offseason.

..

It’s just a shade over the $15 million for three years reliever Brandon Lyon got last year from the Houston Astros in leaving Detroit. Lyon widely was viewed as getting much more than he was worth but never has had a dominating season like Benoit did.

Oh, but Lyon was about 4 years younger, had a better track record, and didn't have rotator cuff surgery within the past two years.

Rays manager Joe Maddon said a case could be made that Benoit was the most valuable player on his very talented team.

Rays manager Joe Maddon once claimed that Jason Bartlett was the team MVP after OPSing .674. Let's hold off on putting much stock on managers making fluffy comments to compliment his own players, yeah?

The Tigers were set with Jose Valverde closing, but how would they get the game to him?

I don't know, the same way teams with an average bullpen get to their closer? Use one or two pretty decent pitchers?

Reliable reliever Phil Coke took care of plenty of eighth innings but was moved into the starting rotation. And once reliever Joel Zumaya was injured last season, the Tigers began their free fall to third place. He took care of seventh innings and might be able to again in 2011 if healthy. But who knows?

Perhaps, Ryan Perry or Daniel Schlereth will be ready for reliable late-inning work this season. Brad Thomas and Robbie Weinhardt could factor into important innings, too.

But now, there is less pressure on everybody with Benoit in the fold.

Fine, Benoit's 60 innings will help take the pressure off. There were cheaper options. It won't put a bat in RF or at DH (assuming Guillen is back at 2B). Just saying.

However, his signing is not without risk. This is not a pitcher who consistently has rattled off eye-popping numbers. He was 30-26 with a 4.47 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in eight seasons with the Texas Rangers before having one break-out year with Tampa Bay.

Uh oh Steve. That isn't good. There's a sample size to go with those numbers.

Benoit was pretty good in 2007, going 7-4 with a 2.85 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. But he walked 35 in 45 innings for the Rangers in 2008 and hasn't had the control he displayed last year.

He had right rotator cuff surgery at the end of 2008, sat out all of 2009 and signed for $800,000 in 2010.

Good. Bad. Injured. Awesome. Middle Relievers. Mike MacDougal.

Benoit began the year with Triple-A Durham and ended it by retiring all 11 Rangers he faced in the playoffs and picking up one win.

Irrelevant.

His agents, Sam and Seth Levinson, also represented Tigers third baseman Brandon Inge and shortstop Jhonny Peralta in their negotiations to re-sign with the club.

Dombrowski must have these guys on his friends and family calling list.

Argument #57 why Joaquin Benoit was a good signing: His agents also represent a mediocre left side of an infield.

And that's it. Convinced? I sure am.

WMTMQR: From a TMQ Column That's Hot Off the Presses

Yeah so I skipped the TMQ from two weeks ago. It wasn't anything special anyways. Certainly not as pathetic as this week's, which in addition to Gregg's regular dosage of mindless bullshit, irrational reasoning, and WRONG included not one but three photos of NFL cheerleaders. Look, I like T and A as much as the next guy. Specifically I am an A man. But Jesus Criminy on a pogo stick, Gregg. Tone it down. You're a fucking weirdo.

McNabb celebrated his deal by throwing three interceptions, one a pick-six, and posting a wretched 69.4 passer rating.

Considering the Redskins were down 14-0 before the opening kickoff and 70-0 at the end of the first quarter, it's not surprising that the Eagles were ready for McNabb to throw a shit ton of passes. He actually was on the verge of getting them back in the game a couple times with big plays. I'm not saying he's not washed up or that he deserved the money, but he didn't really have that horrible of a game when you consider the circumstances.

The situation was so messed up that even though the Redskins' cheerleaders danced throughout the first half in two-piece summer outfits -- despite a cool night and light rain -- 36 gorgeous scantily attired women dancing in the rain could not improve the home team's fortunes.

Yeah, see this is what I'm talking about. Is he a closeted homosexual and overcompensating for it? Is he trying to piss his wife off? Is he just a nerd who can't keep his excitement about good looking broads to himself? Your guess is as good as mine.

And Shanahan's game management! Trailing 42-14 in the second quarter, he had Washington punt on fourth-and-1. Punting on fourth-and-1 when down by four touchdowns!

FOR SHAME! PUNTING IS ALWAYS WRONG ALWAYS AND FOREVER EVEN WHEN IT'S THE FIRST HALF AND YOU'RE DOWN 28 AND IT'S FAR FROM TIME TO PANIC. There will be time for that later! (More on that later)

Hakeem Nicks started to run a slant, then inexplicably stopped in his tracks; Eli Manning threw the slant, Dallas corner Bryan McCann cut in front and returned the pick 101 yards for a touchdown, turning a close contest into what would become a Boys rout. The botched play was sour. So was the call -- can't anybody just run at the goal line in the NFL anymore?

If you watch any amount of football on any given weekend, you'd know the answer to that is "sometimes." I'm a Broncos fan, and at the end of last season I saw a stat that they were stopped for no gain or a loss of yardage when running the ball from the opponents' 1 yard line like 40 times last year. It was something like 2.5 times per game, pretty sad considering how rare it is to have a possession on the 1. For a single anecdote from this season, check out the Bears' possession at 10:37 here.

Scoring to pull within 23-17 with 2:10, Cincinnati onside kicked. Last month yours truly decried "an officiating problem that has been driving TMQ crazy for years. In a scramble for a loose ball, if any player takes possession for even an instant, with a knee down and in contact with an opponent, the play should end. But zebras don't officiate mad scrambles this way. They let the players fight for the ball, then award possession to whoever wins the Darwinian struggle. Often the fighting continues although all players involved have their knees down."

Who quotes themselves directly like that? And it should be so easy for the refs to know exactly when the play ends and blow their whistle right then as 10 players all converge on a loose ball at top speed! Why haven't they started doing that, since there's certainly no way it would ever lead to them fucking up the call and completely changing the course of a game.

That's exactly what happened on the Cincinnati onside kick.

I was watching this game. It's not what happened.

Pierre Garçon of Indianapolis fielded the kick, had control and went to both knees.

He never had control.

The whistle should have sounded -- down over. Instead, the zebras allowed players to fight and pull for the ball for a solid 15 seconds.

Because before the pile formed, no one had possession while down by contact.

Someone ripped the ball away from Garçon -- remember, he was down!

Without control.

-- and possession was awarded to Cincinnati.

Class Gregg- revisionist history used to prove an impractically stupid point. See also: EVERY BLITZ IN THE HISTORY OF ORGANIZED FOOTBALL HAS FAILED- HERE ARE TWO EXAMPLES.

Having the quarterback march around holding the ball, defense not realizing the ball has been snapped, is a longstanding youth league trick. In another variation of this action, the quarterback says loudly, "There's something wrong with the ball." The center hands the quarterback the ball, thus snapping; the offensive line goes Stonehenge; the quarterback walks toward the sideline as if to show the ball to an official, then sprints up the field for a touchdown. Though the snap and the Stonehenge line were kosher, TMQ thinks the middle-school play could be flagged. "No player shall act in an unsportsmanlike manner," says the National Federation of High Schools football rulebook which governs most high school and middle-school play. The NCAA and NFL have similar rules. Trying to trick the defense into allowing an uncontested touchdown doesn't sound particularly sporting, especially if it involves pretending to speak to the officials, since players are supposed to become passive when the officials are involved.

Ludicrous. Given that perspective, here are some other things Gregg might find unsporting:
-End arounds
-HB passes
-The triple option (too deceptive!)
-Passing to a WR who is taller than the DB covering him
-Running away from a player who is slower than you while you are in possession of the ball
-Blocking

Instead Chiefs coaches called a pass; Matt Cassel ran backward all the way to the 19, where he was hit and fumbled; Denver's Jason Hunter took the fumble the length of the field for a touchdown and a 35-0 Denver lead that effectively ended the contest. Never panic in the first half; there will be plenty of time for that later!

Unless you're the Redskins on Monday Night Football and it's 42-14. When you're facing THAT particular 28 point deficit, you definitely panic and go for it on 4th down in your own territory.

TMQ in the News: Wednesday, I will be moderator for the Washington launch of the United Nations Human Development Report, one of the world's key documents.

I'M A GOOD PERSON! NOTICE THIS!

This year's report has a hopeful tone -- it shows that in most cases, poor nations are making decent progress. The report summary is here and the event announcement is here. I became interested in developing world advancement rates when researching

I'M SMART!

my 2003 book, "The Progress Paradox,"

BUY MY BOOK!

and have since done what I can to draw attention to the subject, including, in most recent years, helping the report launch.

I AM SUCH A GOOD PERSON! AND NOT AT ALL SELF-RIGHTEOUS!

Steelers, Patriots Meet in Arena League Action: New England got steamrolled in Cleveland, then went to Pittsburgh and steamrolled the Steelers. This must prove that on any given Sunday --

Any team can win in the NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. Jaworski'd. You know, last year I watched MNF almost every week and of course it pretty much drove me batty. Listening to Jaws, Chuckie, and that dumbfuck Tirico will do that to you. Because of my schedule this fall, I've probably only seen a grand total of 30 minutes of MNF. And I gotta say I feel just fine about that.

But a Steelers-Patriots contest in which both teams opened in the shotgun spread, and stayed shotgun spread for most of the game, was a little too postmodern for my taste.

For all your high mindedness and pretension, I'm 95% sure you're not using "postmodern" correctly there.

Trailing 10-0, the Steelers reached third-and-goal at the New England 4, threw an incompletion and kicked a field goal. Wouldn't a couple rushes have yield six points?

Maybe. Maybe not. Wouldn't a pass from an all-pro QB to a talented receiving corps have yielded six points? Wouldn't kicking on third down have been the smarter move, in case the snap got botched? Wouldn't it be great if no one started Christmas shopping until December 22nd?

Then, New England leading 29-18 with four minutes remaining and facing third-and-5, Pittsburgh blitzed seven men, and I don't even need to tell you who won the game.

Shockingly, despite trailing by 11 and not having the ball with 5 minutes left, the Steelers went on to lose. That could have been avoided, however, if they hadn't blitzed on that play. Blitzing fails every time and is a bad idea no matter what. Just ask the 2005 and 2008 Steelers.

Phillips has a low-key coaching style -- he draws up game plans but relies on players to be professionals and prepare themselves physically and psychologically. This approach worked when he was head coach of the Broncos and Bills,

To the tune of two playoff appearances and zero playoff wins in five seasons.

Was the final score poor sportsmanship? Normally the gauge of sportsmanship in football is whether a team with a big lead stops passing in the second half. Wisconsin runs the ball so well that to hold down the score, the Badgers should switch to passing. Wisconsin starters left the game early, and Wisconsin tactics in the second half were bland. The missing sportsmanship touch was that, leading 62-13 at the start of the final stanza, Wisconsin kicked extra points on its three fourth-quarter touchdowns. The Badgers should have knelt on the PATs.

Nothing screams "we care!" like forgoing that extra point. A true indication of class. Why be penny wise and pound foolish? If you're going to kneel on PAT attempts, might as well spend your possessions kneeling three times and punting.

In San Francisco, They Know About Sweet-n-Sour: San Francisco looked finished with Les Mouflons leading 17-13 with 2:30 remaining and the Forty-Niners facing third-and-32 in their territory. Troy Smith threw to Frank Gore in the left flat for 14 yards, then on fourth-and-18 threw the same play again in the left flat to Gore for 23 yards, then threw to Michael Crabtree for the touchdown.

BEWARE THE CRABTREE CURSE! Adding talented players to your team makes it worse, not better!

[Referring to the Raiders and their patchwork roster] This is a team after TMQ's heart -- castoffs and who-dats.

Remember that time he suggested that NBA teams stop using their first round picks because every year, some of them don't work out? Yes, I agree with you, that is one of the dumbest things ever written about sports.

Jacksonville Becomes the Dillon Panthers of the NFL: Jacksonville has now won games on a final-snap 59-yard field goal and a final-snap 50-yard Hail Mary. You have to feel for Texans defender Glover Quin, who tried to knock the pass to the ground -- exactly what defenders should do to a Hail Mary -- only to see it carom to Jax's Mike Thomas for the winning six.

Hat tip to Jack M: if only Quin had selfishly gone for a stat-padding interception, the game might have headed to OT.

BCS note: Can sportscasters and sportswriters please stop referring to the USA Today and Harris polls as the "human" polls? No other species gets a vote -- the BCS is obviously worried the Klingons would like TCU more than Auburn.

Does he know how the BCS works? He knows that there are computer rankings (admittedly not really true "polls," but still) involved, right?

Stop Me Before I Blitz Again!: City of Tampa leading Carolina 24-16 with 4:40 remaining, the Bucs faced third-and-15 in their own territory. Play straight defense here and a stop is statistically likely ... It's a mega-blitz! Tampa converts and scores the game-icing touchdown on the possession.

Shame on Carolina for anticipating a long-developing pass play and trying to force a sack or turnover. There's got to be some kind of weird childhood incident behind his hatred of blitzing. I don't want to speculate any further than that.

Bonus Obscure College Score of the Week: Bowdoin 26, Colby 21. OK, these schools are not obscure,

Snob alert. I am barely aware of Bowdoin's existence and couldn't begin to tell you where it is- and I had no fucking idea Colby was a school or where it is.

but I make an exception because this was the final college football game for my son Grant, Bowdoin's left tackle. Plus you gotta love a contest that pits the Polar Bears against the Mules. Leading 26-21, Bowdoin took possession on its 1-yard line with 9:17 remaining and staged a 14-play clock-killer drive, closing out the game. Twelve of the snaps were rushes, allowing Grant and his fellow offensive linemen a moment in the sun as the season concluded. Grant's best two college games were

Too long; didn't read. It's funny- Gregg and Simmons hate each other and are usually polar opposites in terms of writing content and style, yet they both hold the incorrect assumption that I give one quarter of one percent of a shit about their kids. Just write about the NFL, jackass. No one cares about your family. Or your book.

GAH. Please Don't Do That

Jaguars QB David Garrard, on his game-winning 50 yard TD pass to Mike Thomas (fast forward to about 7:15 on this video):

I couldn't tell if he caught it... if there was even a play on the ball... and then I saw him running into the end zone. I didn't know what to do. I thought I was gonna just- literally explode right there.

Imagine that literally happened. Literally grosser than that time Joe Theisman's leg literally snapped in two back in the day? I literally believe so.

Adding some much-need clarity to his comment, Garrard continues:

On impact. Right there.

On impact? I'm literally befuddled.

Spot the Straw Man

In memory of Guy Fawkes (remember remember! The 5th of November) let's play a game called "Spot the straw man argument! This week's straw man argument comes from one of the biggest prigs ever to write about baseball, Jon Heyman, responding to the backlash against Jeter winning his 5th Gold Glove and his 4th utterly undeserved Gold Glove

Woo-fucking-hoo!

So apparently there's this blog out there called Fire Joe Morgan that stole our idea for how to criticize the sports media. Kudos to them, though, because this just happened. I guess it would be even better if their blog was called Don't Retain Joe Morgan. But still. That's pretty awesome.

Now watch ESPN replace Morgan with some diptard like McCarver.

This Week in Terrible Headline Puns

Really? Was "Doubting Thomas" not clever enough for CBS Sports? Or am I missing some deviously clever punneration?

Sometimes rhetoric is just lying

In case you didn't know, Derek Jeter is eligible for free agency. He has played for the Yankees his entire sixteen-season career and has been generally overpaid for his level of statistical production. No doubt the Yankees are happy to pay for his intangible benefits to the team.

But things are getting tough for Jeet: he's thirty-six years old and he just posted his lowest ever BA, OBP and OPS numbers. But he's almost at 3,000 hits!

His agent, Casey Close, had this to say:

"Derek's impact on the sport's most valuable franchise cannot be overstated."

Let's give this a try:
1. Derek Jeter has had a more significant career impact on his franchise than Babe Ruth.
2. Derek Jeter had a more significant impact in 2009 on his franchise than Robinson Cano.

Looks like Derek's impact on the sport's most valuable franchise can indeed, in fact, be overstated.

An afterthought: isn't it surprising that the biggest clutch player of our times had the worst season of his career... in the walk year of his ten-year deal? Not very clutch for his bottom line!

TNTMQR: Oh God Now I'm More Than a Week Behind

So yeah, this is the TMQ from Tuesday 10/26. I'm stubborn as hell and refuse to skip one so I'm still playing catchup.

College hoops tip soon, too. Hope you didn't miss this important article on college basketball, showing cheating coaches prosper while the only coaching flaw that's punished is losing. This syncs with TMQ's contention that the structural problem of major college athletics is that coaches are lavishly rewarded with money if their teams win but not penalized if their players don't graduate.

What a novel, crazy, unique contention this man makes. Can anyone else confirm this nasty rumor? Why would coaches be rewarded for winning but not penalized for failing to get diplomas for their players? Is there a bunch of money in college sports or something?

Suppose this simple rule were added to college football and men's basketball: Unless at least 80 percent of a team's players graduate, the coach is suspended for one year. That would add what's missing -- an incentive for coaches to care about education.

Yeah, I can really see the money-grubbing NCAA and money-grubbing universities going along with that one. Surely they'll vote for something that couldn't be more against their own financial interests. Alternately, let's say the NCAA mysteriously stopped being the big gaggle of assholes they are and actually did create/pass/enforce this rule. Boy, you think schools might just go out of their way to make sure athletes got all the "help" they needed in order to graduate? What a great idea. The problem with college sports is systemic- it's the money- and it's never going away. Deal with it. It's an unsolvable problem.

Stat of the Week No. 1: Stretching back to last season, 2009 non-playoff teams Atlanta, Pittsburgh and Tennessee are on a combined 24-6 streak.

What do you mean stretching back to last season? Since July 2nd, 2006...

Cheerleader of the Week: Bryan Law of Independence, Ohio, nominates Christina of the Broncos, who, according to her team bio, works for the Department of Justice as a paralegal in the Environment and Natural Resources Division. This means you could file a Freedom of Information Act request for her swimsuit photo.

Jesus Christ. You are the nerdiest nerd who ever nerded up the internet with your nerd comments about attractive women.

Leading 17-14, Minnesota had first-and-20 on its 24 with 35 seconds remaining in the first half, holding two timeouts, and simply let the clock expire. Huh?

A team wanted to take a lead into halftime rather than taking a relative long shot on getting into field goal range (needed 45 yards or so) by letting the guy who's thrown more interceptions than anyone else in NFL history chuck the ball downfield. Into 4 deep coverage. Does that unstump you?

Turner sent out the field goal team for a 45-yard attempt; San Diego jumped offside, making it a 50-yard attempt; Brown missed. A 50-yard field goal attempt is a 50/50 proposition, and going to overtime is itself a 50/50 proposition -- so as the kick boomed, Turner was essentially putting his chips on a 1-in-4 chance of victory, as opposed to going for it on fourth-and-2 with the league's top-ranked offense.

Love this argument. LOVE IT. First, you have the super basic problem with his math. The odds at the time of the 50 yard attempt were probably around 25%, but what are the odds of converting a 4th and 7? That was the alternative at that point, not a 4th and 2. The odds at the time of the 4th and 2 were higher than 25% because the odds of converting a 45 yard field goal are higher than those of a 50 yard field goal. But I'm just getting started.

Even if you accept his logic that they shouldn't have bothered to line up to kick because the odds of winning at that moment were pretty low, then you get the amazing false alternative that surely, going for it on 4th was a much better idea. What are the odds of converting that 4th down? The league average on 4th downs is about 49% (source: NFL.com- Google it if you don't believe me), and you figure most of those were of the 4th and short variety. Some were on 4th and 5 or 6 or more, but many were on 4th and inches or 4th and 1. Let's be generous and say they had a 60% chance of getting the 4th and 2. So then that leaves them... on them... somewhere around the 20 or 25, with a running clock, still down 3. What are their odds of getting a touchdown before the clock expires? How much higher are their FG odds from 40/35/30 yards? Enough to compensate for the fact that (randomly estimated) 40% of the time, you go for the 4th and 2 and miss and the game ends right there? NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND.

But just ask TMQ- going for it on 4th down is always the right decision, always and forever, and if you don't think so you're a simpleton idiot who doesn't understand football and probably likes to go Christmas shopping in November. Creep alert!

For New England, Turner's ultra-conservative decision was sweet. For San Diego, it was sour, sour, sour.

I LOVE 4TH DOWN ATTEMPTS SO MUCH I JUST WANT TO BE WITH THEM FOREVER.

Unified Field Theory of Creep: Justin Martineau of New Orleans reports, "Starting in January, license plates for the bicentennial of the statehood of Louisiana will become the state's standard. The date of ascension is April 30, 1812. These plates are 16 months early."

Lame.

Robert Drago of Washington, D.C., writes, "Tonight I downloaded the latest Norton security update, and it was advertised as Norton 2011. Is Norton taking a holiday for the rest of 2010?"

Lame.

Joost Smets of Uffelte, Netherlands, writes, "Recently, I noticed an advertisement in my newspaper for the joint Dutch/Belgian bid for the 2018 and 2022 soccer World Cup. Not only does 2018 sounds like distant future to me, the Netherlands have never organized a World Cup, and already we're looking forward to host the tournament for the second time."

Very lame.

Dwight Peck of Phoenix reports, "On October 15, I received the spring 2011 catalog from Eddie Bauer."

OK, see, now THAT'S actual creep. The rest of you emailers can go take a flying fuck at a rolling donut.

The Steelers kicked for a 23-22 lead and a moment later stopped South Florida's fourth-and-6 pass attempt when tackle Vernon Carey, a first-round draft pick, failed to stay with his man despite the Dolphins having five blockers for three Pittsburgh rushers.

We all know Gregg hates first round picks (except Peyton Manning, because what media member doesn't want to blow Peyton Manning?), but this is an unusually flippant shot at one of them. It was one damn play. If a guy with a big ego and a big contract who was drafted in the first round has a bad game, a bad season, a career that never gets off the ground- sure, have at him. But sheesh. This guy had a bad play. You think Jonathan Ogden or Frank Matthews ever had a bad play? This is like some random flippant racist comment, like "Oh I got cut off on the highway the other day by this guy who was talking on his cell phone, and wouldn't you know it, of course he was a _______ to boot." It's so irrelevant what round a guy who has one bad play was drafted in that I can barely express it.

If Richmond, UC Santa Barbara and Wofford also had reached the Sweet 16, that would have brought in the Gauchos, Spiders and Terriers. TMQ thinks fans of the Wofford Terriers should chant, "Here boy! Here boy!"

Crickets. Who is he writing for? Who is his perceived audience? Four year olds? Family Circus fans?

Until such time as there might be an age-21 minimum for the NBA, Adande contends, teams should ignore the draft, concentrating on preserving cap space to sign players drafted and developed by someone else. Teams seem to be taking Adande's advice, if perhaps unintentionally -- there's a clear trend of NBA clubs simply discarding high choices.

Sure, that's somewhat true. And then we see this hilariously bad string of examples used to try to prove that fairly legitimate point.

Miami used the second choice of the 2008 draft on Michael Beasley and in July traded him to Minnesota for essentially nothing, just to get rid of him.

Because he was an asshole. They tried like hell to get him to play well for two seasons before then.

Washington traded the fifth choice of the 2009 draft for Mike Miller and Randy Foye, then a year later waved goodbye to both, netting nothing.

That one's pretty fair.

Minnesota used the sixth choice of the 2009 draft on Ricky Rubio, who won't play in the NBA until 2011, if he ever does.

They desperately wanted Rubio to come and play for them. Rubio is an asshole who doesn't want to play in Minnesota, so he held out. This might be their fault for not doing their homework on him but it's not them "discarding" a draft choice either.

Memphis used the second choice of the 2009 draft on Hasheem Thabeet, who ended up with the Dakota Wizards of the D-League.

Same story as Beasley.

Why not simply open the window and throw first-round draft choices out?

Because teams often use them to take awesome players, such as dozens and dozens of awesome current NBA players who were taken in first round (Or gasp- sometimes in the lottery!).

Banning teens -- isn't there a "right" to play in the NBA at age 19? There's no right to be a 19-year-old airline pilot. Courts have ruled that professions may impose "bona fide" occupational requirements. Requiring NBA players to be at least 21 years of age would pass the test of bona fide, since that would improve the league's quality of play.

Most oversimplified legal argument ever, and one that would take months or years of litigation to settle if the NBA actually made the restriction. It's amazing that this guy's brother is a famous federal judge.

LeBron James was an exception; as a group, basketball players in their early 20s are much better performers than basketball players in their teens. The WNBA requires players to be either college graduates or 22 years of age, and there have been no legal problems with this.

Probably because there is no money involved with the WNBA whatsoever.

A similar example is Shaun Livingston, who jumped from high school to the NBA as the fourth choice of the 2004 draft. He's bounced around to six teams, including the Tulsa 66ers, and never been close to what he might have become with a few years in college.

Shaun Livingston was quickly developing into a pretty badass player with the Clippers when, in 2007, he suffered more or less the most grotesque sports-related injury you will ever see. Youtube it if you want- it's not for the faint of heart. That season, at the ripe old age of 21, he was averaging 9 points, 5 assists, and 3.5 rebounds in about 30 minutes per game. He was well on his way to being a solid starter, if not a star. The injury (to his knee) was so devastating he essentially missed two full seasons recovering. He's still not back and may never be, but before the injury, he was great ammunition for the advocates of letting high schoolers into the NBA.

Worst. Example. Ever.

Last spring Livingston declined a contract offer from the Wizards, saying he didn't want to share the spotlight with Gilbert Arenas and John Wall -- so in six years of bouncing around, he hasn't learned anything.

Translation: he wanted to get more than 7 minutes of playing time a night, so he told the Wizards he'd look elsewhere to revive his spiraling career. WHAT A SELFISH SALLY!

See you again next week, where I'll comment on today's TMQ. Man, I am pathetic.