Bert Blyleven: Great Pitcher, Awful Analyst

He's been writing pieces for MSNBC.com, and I'm finally ready to call him out.

Here, he ranks the top aces in baseball

Here are his AL choices.

1) Roy Halladay, Blue Jays.

OK sure. I don't agree, but you're welcome to that opinion.

2) Josh Beckett, Red Sox

Yeah, yeah...

3) Erik Bedard, Mariners

He's filthy, and might be my #1. Totally deserves mention in this list.

4) Justin Verlander, Tigers

Good, good, nice choice.

5) C.C. Sabathia, Indians

Also an outstanding young pitcher.

6) John Lackey, Angels

Great work, you're on a roll!

7) Jon Garland, Angels

STOP!

Garland has a 105 ERA+. He's perfectly "above average". He is not an "ace". You already have John Lackey on this list, so why did you choose another Angels pitcher, unless you're really trying to rank the best overall starters in the AL?

Where's Kazmir? Vazquez? Wang? Greinke? Possibly the biggest sin of all, where's Fausto Carmona? And hell, why not rattle off Burnett, Buchholz, and Blanton? Felix Hernandez? James Shields? Healthy Rich Harden? There's guaranteed a few more to name, but where the FUCK did you get the idea that Jon Garland was the 7th best starter in the AL? Jon Garland?????

Wait, there's more, he tries to justify this crap.

After winning 18 games in 2005 and 2006

Hi Bert. Wins are not good for evaluation, Bert. Matt Cain was 7-16 last year, Bert. The White Sox crushed the ball on offense in 2006, Bert.

the right-hander posted just 10 victories last season and had a losing record (10-13).

But he pitched better in 2007 than 2006, Bert.

But the White Sox experienced a tough 2007 and for 2008 Garland has changed uniforms, traded last November to the Angels, where he should flourish with increased run support.

Bert, the offense scoring more runs does not make Garland a better Bert. I mean pitcher, Bert. It just means he'll accumulate more of an outdated pitching statistic intensely correlated with run support, Bert.

Bert.

Garland induces a lot of groundballs

But his GB% has alarmingly declined from 48% to 43% to 41% over the last three years, Bert.

and he does not give up a lot of home runs.

You win, Bert.

He will battle hitters hard and can handle throwing a lot of innings (he’s pitched over 200 the last four seasons).

Jason Marquis has averaged something like 200 over the past 4 seasons, Bert. Jon Garland is like Jason Marquis with less homers, Bert.

He has an aggressive approach aimed at getting ahead of hitters

Which contrasts to Fausto Carmona, who tries to get behind hitters in the count, Bert?

He stays around the plate and doesn't give up many walks.

But he also doesn't strike out guys, Bert! Is striking people out important, Bert? Is the combination of 4.5 K/9 and a decreasing ground ball rate a good sign, Bert?


Garland grew up in Southern California and with him going home a big year might well be in the cards, maybe in the range of 18 to 21 wins.

Please send me a historical report showing statistical data that pitchers pitch better in their home states, Bert. Do you even know who James Shields is, Bert?

For Garland the positives with the Angels are not only on offense

None of the positives for Jon Garland are on offense, Bert. Jon Garland doesn't hit in the vast majority of his baseball games, Bert. If Casey Kotchman decides to break out and club 67 homers, this does not make Jon Garland a better pitcher, Bert.

but also on defense where he can expect solid fielding behind him all season long.

That also does not make Jon Garland a better pitcher, Bert. It makes Jon Garland look like a better pitcher, Bert. That's why we have things like Defense Independent Pitching Statistics and Defense-Adjusted ERA, Bert.

I can't believe I just had to convince Bert Blyleven that Jon Garland is not a top 7 pitcher in the American League. I'm literally kicking myself for bringing that "Circle me, Bert!" sign to the last baseball game I saw in the Metrodome.

Just kidding, I've never been to the Metrodome. I actually want to be the one who gets to push down the trigger for the dynamite when that thing goes up in smoke.

For the interested, Jon Garland currently boasts a 5.50 ERA. He has started 3 games, thrown 18 innings, and has struck out a fuckingwhopping (yes, that's a word) 2 hitters.