Bubbleheaded Optimism Radiates From The Toronto Star

We're now welcoming FireJay newbie, Dave Perkins.

Jays have the pitching to contend

No they don't. Their pitching is playoff caliber, but it doesn't come close to make up for their offensive shortcomings, especially if David Eckstein starts at shortstop over slick-fielding John McDonald. Ground ball pitchers getting hundreds and hundreds of balls slapped Eckstein's way. ACK!

Even with subtractions, the Jays go north with more pitching, front to back, than either the Red Sox or the Yankees, it says here.

It says where? Are you reading from something? If so, this is plagiarism!

Boston has Josh Beckett and his bad back to consider; he didn't fly the 21,000 kilometres to and from Tokyo, possibly because nothing is worse for a bad back than flying.

Beckett will be out of action for a little bit, then most likely he'll be back pitching and awesome.

They also have Curt Schilling on the long-term DL

Good thing they have 6 starters.

DL and are counting heavily on talented kids Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz.

Buchholz is a stud. There's nothing wrong with counting on him. Most likely, he'll be the 2nd best starter on the team this year.

The Yankees are holding their breath on Andy Pettitte's bad back, plus Mike Mussina looked washed-up much of last year.

I'm going to stop you right there. You are arguing for a team containing A.J. Burnett by saying Andy Pettitte has injury problems? Sure, it's a concern, but Andy threw 215 innings last year.

They have outstanding young arms in Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy, but what are the odds all three will come through under intense pressure?

Decent. And the odds that at least two will come through are very, very high.

The Jays have a slight edge in that their young pitchers, namely Dustin McGowan, Shawn Marcum and Jesse Litsch, have more experience than the Boston and Yankee kids.

You're being ridiculous. "Experience" is not an adequate substitute for "skill", and it certainly does not trump it. Hughes, Buchholz, Chamberlain, and Kennedy are all better than those three pitchers.

Kids aside, would you trade Toronto's top three starters – Roy Halladay, A.J. Burnett and McGowan – for the first three of either New York (let's say Chien-Ming Wang, Pettitte and Hughes)

That's pretty close actually.

or Boston (Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Lester)?

Plug in Buchholz for Lester, and yes, absolutely, I would make that trade in a heartbeat and you'd be crazy not to. And yes, I am talking about just for this season.

Not me.

Because you overrate Dustin McGowan to the extreme and have no clue that Clay Buchholz is better than Jon Lester.

Toronto's lineup, which has been dreadfully powerless down here this spring, will not score runs the way New York's and Boston's will. That's a legitimate concern. But pitching is the backbone of any good team and because Toronto's pitching looks better, at least to these eyes, than either of their rivals, this might be a more interesting summer than most if not all of the past 14, depending on health issues.

You know what? You're right. Sure, San Francisco won't be able to score runs to save their life, but they have damn good pitching! And that's the backbone! This might be an interesting summer for them.....

(Side note: I've been thinking about this a lot, and am inclined to believe that hitting is more important than pitching. Baseball is 50% scoring runs, 50% preventing runs. A small but significant part of preventing runs is defense, so it can't all be pitching. Scoring runs is almost all hitting.)

It usually does and the critical component in all this is Burnett. If he's healthy and gets 30-plus starts, this team could contend. If he breaks down again, they'll be scrambling for pitching again.

If this happens, and James Shields gets injured, the Blue Jays have a great shot at 3rd place.