Showing posts with label alright let's see you put on a glove and turn a double play mister stat nerd. Show all posts
Showing posts with label alright let's see you put on a glove and turn a double play mister stat nerd. Show all posts

Wednesday, May 1, 2013

Back to the Bread and Butter

Hey folks, it's been awhile, but I got a bit riled up reading a post by John Fay, a Reds' beat writer, entitled "Statheads Love to Hate Dusty", and I had to come back.  The namesake of this blog made its money hammering at stupid things said involving statistics, journalism and baseball, so this one's a hearkening back to the old days.  

Everything in baseball these days seems to come down to a Sabermetrics vs. Old School debate. That’s what the Aroldis Chapman argument revolved around. That was the whole basis for the Miguel Cabrera vs. Mike Trout MVP debate.

Did I miss something about Sabermetrics involving Aroldis Chapman?  I think he's not a very provocative player to cite in this debate, seeing as Sabermetric fans are probably amazed at, say, his incredible ability to acculumate 3.6 WAR while playing in only 71 innings or his 15.3 K/9... while Old School fans are probably amazed at, say, his incredible ability to throw a ball one billion miles an hour for strikes.

The thing that continues to amaze me is neither side ever seems to find any merit in the other side’s argument.

This line is Fay's attempt to position himself as an objective party in this debate.  Unfortunately he will consistently undermine this position.

Covering the Reds is debate central. The Saber crowd loves to scream about Dusty Baker. Baker is Public Enemy No. 1 to Sabermetric enthusiasts.

It's not a good idea, when trying to position yourself as objective, to characterize one side by calling them a "crowd", characterizing their arguments as "screams", and overdramatizing their point of view.

Baker definitely manages by the book that was written before WAR meant anything other than a conflict between nations. But so does just about every other manager in baseball.

Wow, that's a Simmonsesque joke. What about the book that war written before WAR meant anything other than a card game of pure chance involving two eight-year-olds?

So why is Baker such a lightning rod? I think there are two reasons Baker comes to the forefront of the debate: a) he doesn’t back down when asked about things like RBI vs. on-base percentage. His quote about walks clogging the bases is Exhibit A; b) I think some of the Sabermetrics crowd has a hard time accepting that an old baseball guy might know something about the game that they don’t.

Now I remember why I hate people.  

Most recently, Baker has infuriated Sabers by batting Zack Cozart second in the lineup. I inadvertently got pulled into the debate via Twitter. Keith Law of ESPN.com had a “Baker rant” on his podcast.

I dismissed it in a tweet with something along the lines of: Saber guy disagreeing with Dusty, I’m shocked.

That sure was nice of Fay to be honest about how he dismissed Law's point  without discussing its merits.  I'm glad Fay didn't decide to be a police officer.  

I stirred it up with that.

“Anyone who knows math would disagree with Dusty,” a follower tweeted.

“So Albert Einstein would be the ideal manager?” I replied with a tinge of snark.

I'm pretty sure this whole blog is about snark, as Larry B famously noted back in January 2008 when he introduced the famous Reader Participation Fridays.  I took Jeff Pearlman to task for it in a classic March 2008 masterpiece.  Either way, Fay's comment is stupid.  Everyone knows Albert Einstein would be a shitty manager.  He didn't even understand baseball.

I ended up listening to Law’s podcast (or at least the rant portion). 

I'm glad he did that after tweeting about it, and I'm glad he didn't even listen to the whole podcast.  I don't have a critical opinion of Fay as a whole (I'm too far out of sports journalism these days to offer sensible generalizations), but this very sentence just about makes me feel like I just got really bad news from my doctor.

It was about Cozart and the No. 2 spot. I agree that Cozart is better suited to hit down in the lineup. I completely disagree with Law’s contention that Joey Votto should hit second.

Watch that second sentence.  He's going to agree with Law here, and then contradict his own point later.

Law’s rant said Baker’s “willful ignorance” led him to make out his lineup without using the data on on-base percentage. Law cited “Moneyball” and the Red Sox as proof the theory works. (Anyone who thinks the A’s won because of Billy Beane’s grasp of on-base percentage and not starting pitching may be willfully ignorant, but that’s not the point here.)

I wonder if it's possible that the A's won because of both of those things.  Or is that just too hard to imagine?  Is this just a binary world where everything is either completely caused by one thing or another?  Is every person a Democrat or a Republican?  Can every number just be a zero or a one?  Can every bathroom just be gentlemen or ladies? 

Also, reducing Moneyball to "Billy Beane's grasp of on-base percentage" is shallow and miserable thinking.  It reminds me of the Book-a-Minute spoofs which reduce classic literature, except those are done for humor, and John Fay ostensibly gets paid real live American dollars to offer sensible and serious opinions about baseball.

Baker is batting Cozart second because he thinks it will work, not because he doesn’t know about on-base percentage.

Well of course.  But John Fay doesn't think it will work, as he's already said, but will for some unknown reason attempt (and fail) to refute himself in the next sentence.

It worked last year. Cozart hit .324 with a .378 on-base percentage and a .491 slugging percentage in the No. 2 spot compared to .246/.288/.399 overall.

Why does Fay even mention this?  He just said he disagreed with Dusty in batting Cozart #2!  I wonder if it would be relevant to put that, last year, Cozart's .324 average came in just over 100 at bats, and at the time of this writing, Cozart was hitting .198/.221/.363 in just under 100 at bats.  Given the sample size of his whole career (748 PA), his line is .245/.282/.398, I think it's safe to say that last year's performance in the #2 spot is likely to be something of an aberration.  Why would he even mention that statistic? That makes like negative sense, for anyone who knows math about negative numbers. Who would want Cozart hitting second in any lineup? It only undermines his point about Dusty and skjcnsecjnsejvnsdkjvnkdsjvnk. I can't even go on any more about how stupid this is.

I hate people.  Go Reds.


Sunday, November 18, 2012

OK, I will take Mitch Albom's bait


Undoubtedly someone has already linked you to this, and it's possible you've already seen someone make fun of it.  Still, I've got to take a crack at it.  It's just too fucking awesome to pass up.

The eyes have it.


That pun, which he will go on to repeat in his final sentence, is probably the best part about this whole article.  Not because it's clever or insightful (or even sensical--it's not like the MVP vote is a yes/no proposition like HOF voting is or something); just because it's not as offensive as everything else this cretin writes.

In a battle of computer analysis versus people who still watch baseball as, you know, a sport, 

It is a well-known fact that people who like computer analysis watch baseball as a romantic comedy.

what we saw with our Detroit vision 

Detroit Vision (patent pending): from the company that brought you Cleveland Smell.

was what most voters saw as well:

Cabrera won the Triple Crown and happened to play for a team that wasn't in the same division as Texas and Oakland.  I, too, saw all that.

Miguel Cabrera is the Most Valuable Player in the American League this year.

Shouldn't have been.  Chris W put it best: he was a deserving candidate, just definitely not the most deserving candidate.  I think that's a very levelheaded and fair way to describe his credentials.  Now let's watch Mitch work his magic.

"It means a lot," he told reporters over the phone from Miami. 

(Between rounds of shots)

"I'm very thankful. ... I thought it was gonna be very close."

So did everyone. But the debate ended Thursday night when the results were announced, with Cabrera earning 22 of the 28 first-place votes from the Baseball Writers' Association of America. It reinforced what Tigers fans have been saying all season: This guy is a monster.

All season long, Tigers fans have been trying to convince other fans that a guy who has a career triple slash of .318/.395/.561 was having yet another awesome offensive year.  But those other fans wouldn't listen!  They were too busy doing computer nerd things on computers, and refusing to watch any baseball.  Finally, some vindication for those Tigers fans, in the form of acknowledgement from the always-credible BBWAA.

It also answered the kind of frenzied cyberspace argument that never shadowed baseball 20 years ago but may never stop shadowing it now.

Wasn't life so much better when we had less information?  That's how I feel.  It's so annoying that the rise of the internet and the computer age has allowed us to expand our baseball analysis knowledge base.

Statistics geeks insisted Cabrera was less worthy than Angels rookie centerfielder Mike Trout. Not because Trout's traditional baseball numbers were better. They weren't. Cabrera had more home runs (44), more runs batted in (139) and a better batting average (.330) than Trout and everyone else in the American League. It gave him the sport's first Triple Crown in 45 years.

The funny part is, if Trout gets 3 more hits and see his BA go up to .331, ruining Cabrera's Triple Crown, you can bet that Trout would have won the MVP.

But Trout excelled in the kind of numbers that weren't even considered a few years ago, mostly because A) They were impossible to measure, and B) Nobody gave a hoot.

A is correct.  B is not.  We've been keeping track of errors for decades because people wanted to have a way to quantify defensive ability.

Today, every stat matters. There is no end to the appetite for categories -- from OBP to OPS to WAR. 

"There is no end to the appetite for categories" -- guy who gets paid a generous salary to express thoughts through writing

I mean, OMG! 

LOL

The number of triples hit while wearing a certain-colored underwear is probably being measured as we speak.

It probably is not.  But highest OBP while wearing certain colors of underwear?  That is most definitely "being measured" (again, Albom is a professional journalist) right now.

So in areas such as "how many Cabrera home runs would have gone out in Angel Stadium of Anaheim" or "batting average when leading off an inning" or "Win Probability Added," Trout had the edge. At least this is what we were told.

DON'T BELIEVE EVERYTHING THE TROUT-RUN LIBERAL MEDIA TELLS YOU, SHEEPLE.  KOOKY STATS LIKE "BATTING AVERAGE LEADING OFF AN INNING" ARE NOT TO BE TRUSTED.  JUST STICK TO RBIS AND DETROIT VISION APPROVAL RATING.

I mean, did you do the math?  I didn't. 

Why bother when people around Detroit had already concluded that Cabrera "was a monster?"  CASE CLOSED

I like to actually see the sun once in a while.

PARDON YOUR ZINGER

Plus he has intangibles

That's a subheadline, not an editing mistake, but I think he should have just ended the article there.  What would the computer people be able to say in response?

Besides, if you live in Detroit, you didn't need a slide rule. 

The best part about jokes like that is that the defensive metrics that showed Trout to be an awesome CF and fuel his enormous WAR total cannot exist without extremely diligent viewing of actual game footage.  That's not to say I'm some UZRophile or something--I think most defensive metrics are crappy.  But I'd still rather have them than not have them, you know?

This was an easy choice. 

So far the only ways in which you've compare the two guys are BA, HR, RBI (all numbers which can be trusted and which favor Cabrera), how playing in Anaheim would have affected Cabrera's HR total (favors Trout, supposedly), batting average leading off an inning (favors Trout, but not a number to be trusted, apparently) and win probability added (WHAT THE HELL IS THAT?).  You haven't talked about defense or stolen bases, which are traditionally the kind of things that the I LOVE ME SOME PLAYERS WHO PLAY THE GAME THE RIGHT WAY crowd loves, and which are more or less the reason Trout's WAR total was so much higher than Cabrera's.  I know I'm simultaneously preaching to the choir and shouting into the void here, but holy dogshit, if you're going to make the case for why A was better than B, simply saying "A was great" isn't a very good way to do it.

People here watched Cabrera, 29, tower above the game in 2012. Day after day, game after game, he was a Herculean force. Valuable? What other word was there? 

Defensively inadequate?  Can I use two words like that?

How many late-inning heroics? How many clutch hits? And he only missed one game all year. 

That last stat really makes Justin Verlander's 2011 MVP look silly in hindsight.  Guy didn't even play 75% of the time!

"During the season, a lot of guys tell me I'm gonna be the MVP," Cabrera said, laughing. "But they said the same thing to Trout."
Yes, it's true, Trout is faster, Trout is a better defensive player, 

Here we go!

Trout is a leadoff hitter, and Trout edged Cabrera in several of those made-for-Microsoft categories.

4 WAR is not really an "edged him out" margin, but OK, go ahead.

But if you are going to go molten deep 

Again, this man is paid to use the English language effectively.

into intangibles, 

Like playing defense and stealing bases?

why stop at things like "which guy hit more homers into the power alleys?" (A real statistic, I am sorry to say.)

Still not an intangible.  But in any case, who wants to stop there?  This is the most bizarre and confusing straw man I've ever seen.  "ALL YOU INTANGIBLES LOVERS OUT THERE WHO WANT ME TO CONSIDER TROUT'S DEFENSE AND SPEED, JUST STOP PUSHING HIS POWER ALLEY HOME RUN TOTAL ON ME ALREADY!  WHO CARES ABOUT THE INTANGIBLE THAT IS POWER ALLEY HOME RUNS?"  What?

Why not also consider such intangibles as locker-room presence? Teammates love playing around -- and around with -- Miggy. He helps the room.

When he's not being a total distraction because his wife beat him up and he got a DUI, yes.

How about his effect on pitchers? Nobody wanted the embarrassment of him slamming a pitch over the wall. The amount of effort pitchers expended on Cabrera or the guy batting ahead of him surely took its toll and affected the pitches other batters saw. 

Surely!  Meanwhile, Trout spent the whole season giving opposing pitchers scouting reports on his teammates in exchange for an agreement that those pitchers would throw him BP fastballs.  Hardly a team player.

Why not find a way to measure that? (Don't worry. I'm sure someone is working on it as we speak.)

Why not take three seconds to realize that Trout did the exact same damn thing all season, while batting leadoff?

What about the debilitating power of a three-run homer? How many opposing teams slumped after Cabrera muscled one out? 

Clearly all of them, as evidenced by Detroit's 88-74 record, obtained while playing in the same division as the AL's two worst teams.

How about team confidence? You heard everyone from Prince Fielder to Justin Verlander speak in awed tones about being on the same team as Cabrera. Doesn't that embolden teammates and bring out their best?

I sure don't remember seeing any articles about how Trout energized the Angels and was more or less the sole reason their season turned around the time he was called up.  Anybody else catch any of those?

How about the value of a guy who could shift from first to third base -- as Cabrera did this past season -- to make room for Fielder? Ask manager Jim Leyland how valuable that is.

Yeah, nothing like playing a fat guy out of position so you can add another fat guy to your infield.  True value right there.

How about the fact that Cabrera's team made the playoffs and Trout's did not? ("Yes," countered Team Trout, "but the Angels actually won more games.") 

No response to that completely valid argument is provided.

How about the fact that Cabrera played the whole season while Trout started his in the minors? ("Yes," said the Trout Shouters, "but the Angels won a greater percentage with Trout than Detroit did with Cabrera.")

I like how he thinks that this is a knock on Trout.  Sure, he hit 30 bombs, but he only played in 139 games!  Totally invalidates everything!  /fart

How about this? How about that? The fact is, voters are not instructed to give more credence to any one category than another. Twenty-eight sportswriters, two from each AL city, decide, in their own minds, what is "valuable" and who displayed it the most.
They chose Cabrera.

By an overwhelming majority.

In the end, memories were more powerful than microchips.

I believe that was the original pitch for Forrest Gump.

Which, by the way, speaks to a larger issue about baseball. It is simply being saturated with situational statistics. What other sport keeps coming up with new categories to watch the same game? 

Basketball (PER, +/-)  Hockey (Corsi, Fenwick)  Football (QB Y/A, WR Y/Tgt)?  But wait--are those actually SPORTS, or are they computer games?  Hard to tell.

A box score now reads like an annual report. 

I'd love to be a shareholder of AlbomCorp.  Its annual reports would be awesome, they'd be like THINGS ARE GOING PRETTY GOOD, WE'RE DECLARING A DIVIDEND OF $1,000,000 PER SHARE BECAUSE WE'RE NOT SOME NERD COMPANY THAT USES NUMBERS.

And this WAR statistic -- which measures the number of wins a player gives his team versus a replacement player of minor league/bench talent (honestly, who comes up with this stuff?) 

People who like to know which baseball players are good?

-- is another way of declaring, "Nerds win!"

If you'd prefer the nerds to win after completing a series of athletic and talent show challenges, like in Revenge of the Nerds, I'm sure that can be arranged.

We need to slow down the shoveling of raw data into the "what can we come up with next?" machine. It is actually creating a divide between those who like to watch the game of baseball and those who want to reduce it to binary code.

To the extent such a divide exists, it's entirely the result of the needledicked insecurities of people like you, Mitch.  Your antiquated way of thinking is being challenged by people who like baseball just as much as you do, and have said to themselves, "Hmmmm, stats like RBIs really don't tell us that much about who's good and who isn't.  Maybe there are other, better ways to measure performance.  As someone who likes watching baseball, I'd like to discover/learn about those ways."  Since (most of you) know that you can't make the argument that old stats are more illuminating, of course you and your ilk instead attack the new stat people by saying they don't like to watch baseball, which is elephant shit.  Go read a book, then go fuck yourself, and follow that up by giving the Detroit Free Press your two weeks' notice.  You're a fucking loser and I hope you catch Crohn's disease.  

Christ, I tried to keep it lighthearted, but eventually I got worn down.  Mitch Albom is the fucking worst. 

Thursday, May 20, 2010

Crap!

It slipped right past me, because I am too busy living in my parents' basement and eating junk food, but FireJay recently turned three years old. Hard to believe. In case anyone was wondering, even though we don't post as often anymore, we are still part of the "blogosphere."

Wednesday, August 5, 2009

Why Was "Moneyball" Written? Among Other Reasons, THIS

Oh my goodness gracious. Oh sweet potato pie with gravy. This one is a motherfucking doozy.

What you're about to read is going to sound an awful lot like a parody- the kind of fictional conversation you might read on The Dugout or Kissing Suzy Kolber. But it's not. It took place during an actual, real broadcast of an actual, real edition of Baseball Tonight which aired last Saturday night and Sunday morning. These ESPN analysts (term "analyst" used loosely in Buck Showalter's case) really said these things. It's perhaps the most hilarious pile of bullshit I've ever heard on TV. I was able to transcribe what was said word-for-word and stutter-for-stutter, as I moved into a new apartment on 8/1 and am now the proud owner of a DVR. It takes forever to do the transcription but in this case it was 100% worth it. You'll see that my commentary is pretty limited, because, let's face it, this segment is funny enough on its own.

One final time, please keep in mind, this is a real segment that ran on BBTN. Seriously. We join it already in progress, as I happened to channel surf into the catastrophe rather than watching it unfold from its beginning. You'll have to imagine how it began. Our topic: what baseball scouts look for in terms of a prospect's body.

Buck Showalter (standing, adjusting his feet from pigeon-toed to parallel to "open," presumably showing different ways players run): I've seen some bow-legged guys, you know, you wanna talk about Deion Sanders or Derek Jeter...

Steve Berthiaume: [Indecipherable] could barely walk, but he could run like a deer!

BS: Well I'll tell you what, he could put it in play, and he could run.

Buck is a folk hero. He's the Boomhauer of baseball analysts. Tell you what, that boy could play a little ball, you know?

SB: Now, "10 to 2," "5 to 1," (referring to ways scouts describe the alignment of feet) I thought scouting was all about average, RBIs, OPS.

You forgot living in your parents' basement, never seeing the sun, not knowing what grass feels like between your toes, not knowing how to talk to a girl, never having sex, never having sexy dreams because you've never had sex and can't even conceptualize what it would be like, etc.

But you're using terminology that they use, and that's what they actually make their recommendations on, right?

BS: The stats are the easy part! Now, you don't get to see a guy play 20, 30 times. But you take your experience you've learned from years and years and years, what Major League players look like, for the most part. With a few exceptions to the rule.

And this is part of the impetus behind Billy Beane's style of GMing, and thus the inspiration for "Moneyball." A bunch of (in my opinion, creepy) old baseball scouts pay a significant amount of attention to how a player looks. Do they pay more attention to looks than ability? Most probably don't. Some probably do. In any case, this segment is about to get all kinds of anecdotal/creepy. Because we're not just talking about a prospect's body in general. We're talking about individual body parts.

SB: Alright, we've done feet. What's a good leg?

One that works? One with muscles and bone in it? One that enables a guy to run fast?

BS: A good leg? Well, it's a, you don't wanna see a guy's thigh wide this way (places hands at sides of upper leg and expands them outwards), you wanna see them wide that way (places hands at front and back of upper leg and expands them outwards).

Thanks for the anecdotal bullshit, Buck. I don't care how many dusty dirt roads in the middle of Wyoming you've driven down to find the next Mickey Mantle playing in a community softball game in a city no one has ever visited. You've got to be fucking kidding me with this. How are you going to be able to tell if a guy has a "wide" side-to-side thigh versus a "thick" front-to-back thigh? You aren't. But don't let any of those stat nerds tell you that. They're too busy not understanding what it's like to feel the foul line chalk between your fingers.

Tim Kirkijuan: Who's got great legs?

BS: Alex Rodriguez. Perfection in his legs, as far as going this way. (He repeats the "good" motion he used above, as a Baseball Tonight graphic which reads "LEGS" flashes across the screen and is immediately followed by a clip of Rodriguez running down the first base line. It freezes at some point, and a spot shadow illuminates A-Rod's gorgeous thigh.) Very strong, can stand up to the toll that Major League players... and uh, stays away from injury for the most part.

He missed most of spring training and all of April with a hip injury this year. Where were his turbothighs on that one? Also, way to pick one of the 10 or so best players of all time to prove your point. You're really crossing the correlation-causation gap there. A-Rod has legs => A-Rod is a great player => A-Rod is a great player because of those legs.

Perfect example, Derek, uh, Alex Rodriguez.

Nice little Freudian slip there. Whose thigh is Buck thinking about again? And yes, I'm sure you already guessed it, but this isn't the last time we'll be hearing about a certain man named Derek.

TK (a little too excited): OK, now let's move up. Butt. What's a good butt?

Slow down, Tim. You've barely met these guys.

BS (defensively): Hey, heyheyheyhey. Well it ain't here, boys, I'm, you know (interrupted by laughter from UA and TK) Well it's common of good, especially good pitchers and guys with a lot of power, that part of the body, and the torso and the stomach, create a lot of arm speed, create a lot of bat speed. And you just don't see a lot of power hitters, or good pitchers that can generate arm speed, who don't have a good high butt on them.

At least here, I can understand that there might be some butt variation from player to player. I can also understand that a high butt helps guys generate power. Despite the inherent weirdness of talking about dudes' asses, this is probably the least objectionable part of this whole segment.

SB: You want a, who's a "high butt" guy?

BS: Uhhhhhhhh... not that I look at them a lot (TK giggles), but uh, Derek Lee.

SB: OK, Derek Lee, I like this guy, he's a "high butt" guy. (Again, we get a Baseball Tonight screen graphic which reads "HIGH BUTT" and are treated to a shot of Lee running the bases, with a spot shadow on his ass and two large yellow arrows on either side of it, pointing up.)

I'm not kidding. They really did that. With the arrows and everything.

BS: And I don't want to say he's got a "perfect butt" but I'll tell you, if you watched this guy as an amateur player you'd go "wow." That's a-

TK: And scouts are saying "He's got a high butt, I like that."

BS: Oh, without a doubt.

Again, I find this creepy.

And you don't see many guys who can't run with a high butt. They usually can run pretty well.

Nice and anecdotal, just how I want my favorite team to scout young players!

SB: So a "low butt" guy would be a catcher, somebody like that.

BS: Yeah, sometimes you- but there's exceptions, like you said, might go behind the plate, might be a relief pitcher.

What he's implying is that he, or perhaps friends of his who are scouts, have in the past (and maybe even still do) looked at a potential prospect unfavorably because the prospect's ass was not "high" enough. These are the guys who, up until maybe 10 years ago, made pretty much every low-level personnel decision for every team in baseball.

TK: What about the back? (awkwardly gestures towards his own back)

Try pointing at your own back. I bet you look like a fucking idiot right now.

BS: Oh, without a doubt, I'll tell you, one thing you look at is a wide shoulder, wide back guy.

SB: A "V" guy. (Make a "V" motion with his hands)

BS: That's why sometimes, smaller pitchers can have long careers and generate arm speed and can withstand the pounding that they take, you look for that wide back.

How is the width of your shoulders/back going to help you generate arm speed? I'll buy the durability argument, I guess. And that's the kind of thing you have to scout for without relying on stats. They won't often tell you whether or not a guy will break down over time. But I will say this- do you think Tim Lincecum would be able to ditch his crazy whiplash delivery and still be able to throw 96 if only he had a wider back?

TK: Who's got a good back?

BS: Oh, I'll tell ya, every time I see Derrek Holland with the Rangers pitch, I go "wow." That's what it looks like. (Cue "BROAD BACK" screen sweep graphic, and spot shadow on Holland's back.)

It looks exactly like every other baseball player's back does through his jersey.

Somewhere along the line a scout wrote, in his narrative, when he's going, "look at the back on this guy." Perfect-shaped back, small waist, wide shoulders, that's a good lookin' back.

Again, mildly creepy. That's not the focus of this post, but you have to admit it's definitely here in spades.

Are you ready for the good stuff? Here comes the good stuff.

TK: I remember when Bobby Cox met Chipper Jones, and I asked him, "Tell me about Chipper Jones." And he said "He's got a great face."

SB (laughing): "He's got a great face?"

Like Bill Simmons!

TK: And I was like, what is that? Give me a guy with a great face, what does that mean?

It means the scouts who started this idea that you can evaluate a player based on what his fucking face looks like (and the ones who have continued it throughout the years) are a bunch of buffoons. Seriously. I tried to cut some slack in my criticism of the "high butt" and the back. I mean, although incredibly difficult to evaluate, I acknowledge that the physical makeup of those body parts can affect a player's performance. The face? The fucking face? The bone with skin stretched over it which gives the eyes, nose, and mouth their shape? Fuck you and die in a tornado, baseball scouts.

BS: Uhhh, probably Orlando Hudson.

Well obviously Orlando Hudson.

Every time I see him, I go "great face."

???

I guarantee you, somewhere along the line- this is my favorite category. ("GREAT FACE" graphic sweeps by, and we are greeted to a close up of Hudson's mug complete with spot shadow.)

Holy shit. Holy dog balls. Can you imagine being the ESPN junior video production assistant in charge of this segment? How many times would you need to take a break from working on it so you could roll on the floor laughing? This is mind-bogglingly stupid. It's stupid in its baseball context and its even stupider in its BBTN incarnation. Yes, thank you ESPN. Thank you for the spot shadow. Now I know where Orlando Hudson's fucking face is. Better than that, I know that some scout told the Blue Jays to draft him in the 47th round way back in 1997 BECAUSE HE HAD A GOOD FUCKING FACE. I defy any Billy Beane hater out there (read: people who are scared of numbers) to watch this and then say with a straight face "Yes. This is a reasonable way to judge young baseball players." Holy fucking shitballs.

When you tell a scout "tell me what kind of face he's got," everybody knows what he's talking about. It's just a sincerity.

A calmness? A dreaminess?

There's a look in his eyes, there's a competitiveness, there's an alertness about his face. He sees what's going on around him.

Those players with great high school stats but a bad face? No idea what's happening around them. They're oblivious.

Derek Jeter,

There we go.

first time I met him in the dugout at 18, I went "Wow. What a good face."

Over time you and your ilk have probably ruined hundreds of young careers, and tried to jump start several others which had no place being jump started, based on how the players' faces looked. THE EMPEROR HAS NO CLOTHES, YOU BLITHERING IDIOTS. JUST BECAUSE HERB "FACELOVER" MCGEE, WHO FOUND WILLIE MAYS HITTING ROCKS 500 FEET WITH A BROOMHANDLE BACK IN 1947, SAID "IT'S IMPORTANT TO LOOK AT A PLAYER'S FACE" DOESN'T MEAN YOU HAVE TO KEEP DOING IT. IT'S OK TO STOP AND PAY MORE ATTENTION TO ATTRIBUTES THAT ACTUALLY MATTER ANYTIME NOW.

SB: Now Buck, I know you got a lot of hits, Cape Cod League, minor leagues, I noticed, and I say this with great affection, you've got kind of a square head. (TK giggles) So I'm wondering, I'm going to guess that that's good.

It's not.

BS: Well not because I have it. I've been told it's round, but thanks anyways! (TK giggles) Square heads. I like square heads. A lot of guys, there's a definition of, uh, uh-

TK (finishing his sentence): -character there.

Character. In the shape of your head. One last time, I promise this is the last time- these guys really talked about this on a real BBTN broadcast. And thus it is fair to assume that yes, real scouts really used to (or still do) use this as a way to measure the viability of young prospects.

BS: Yeah. There's a great bloodline there, you see the definition of the jawline.

"Great bloodline?" Is Buck a member of the Aryan Brotherhood?

SB: Pujols, square head guy. (Cue "SQUARE HEAD" graphic, and video of Albert Pujols which freezes with a spot shadow on his allegedly square head)

BS: Oh, perfect! You know, that's the way major league quality hitters look. Same way guys don't like to see hitters, in a perfect world, have anything but brown eyes. There are some great blue and green-eyed hitters, but they talk about that.

Yeah, he's definitely some kind of bizarre iteration of baseball racist. EYE COLOR? FUCKING EYE COLOR?

TK: Now, when a scout shakes hands with a kid. What, what, what's that-

BS (interrupting): Oh, he's getting a lot of info back. He shakes hands (TK and BS reach out and shake each other's hands), he's already said "OK, how long's his fingers, how supple is his wrist, how fat are his palms, and how firm is his handshake?" You've got four tools before they even-

It's funny, now we're back into things which might at least have a tertiary impact on a prospect's ability. They're still patently ridiculous when compared to, you know, how fucking good the prospect is at baseball. But at least you can kind of see them mattering. And that means they are infinitely more worthy of analysis than WHAT A GUY'S FACE LOOKS LIKE.

TK (interrupting, incredulously): He, he, he's got a fat palm, he's-

SB (sarcastically interrupting, perhaps warming up to the idea that this is the most ludicrous 4 minute stretch in television history): Fat palm, he's out.

BS: Ehhhh.... catcher.

But not a first baseman! Or an outfielder, heaven forbid! Can't have all these fat-palmed fatty fat palms running around out there in fair territory.

TK: Alright, supple wrist, what's that?

BS: Well I'll tell ya, great example. Mariano Rivera. Mariano Rivera had a very stiff wrist. That's the reason why they made him a relief pitcher, because he couldn't ever master a breaking ball, couldn't make his wrist go (makes a curveball-type motion with his wrist).

SB: Now hold on, the greatest closer in the history of baseball, and he is, he can't throw a breaking ball, because his hand doesn't go like that? (makes a similar motion)

BS: Oh, he can throw a breaking ball! But it's not pretty. You know, basically, that's why he throws the cutter off-center. He can't do that (makes the curveball motion again) and create a lot of torque, he can't throw the slider, you know, and that's why he throws the cut fastball. Doesn't mean he can't pitch in the big leagues, but his ability to start was not gonna happen because of how stiff his wrist was.

OK, I'll buy this is as a useful attribute by which to judge a player, but I will not buy the idea that you can figure this out from shaking a dude's hand. Aren't having a firm handshake and displaying a supple wrist mutually exclusive? How could you possibly do both?

TK: Well the guy had a full beard at 18.

Aaaaaaaand.... we're back to the absolutely ridiculous stuff.

BS: Well I'll tell ya, you go in and see an 18 year old guy with a full beard, shaving once or twice a day, he's out more than likely. He's flatlining!

Words fail me. Words should fail anyone with a brain who reads this. It's like trying to listen to someone who insists the moon landing was filmed in Hollywood or that the world is going to end in 2012 because the ancient Mayans said so. How do you respond? My advice is to punch anyone from any of these three groups (2012 people, moon landing hoax people, and "don't sign a prospect if he's got a lot of facial hair at age 18" people) directly in the eye socket. Crush that orbital bone nice and good.

That's as good as he's gonna be!

Again, your kind has probably ruined at least a few potential careers over the years... because a teenager had facial hair.

You see a guy who's starting to lose his hair at 18, he's mature! (pronounces it "mah-toor") He's getting ready to go the- that's as good as he's gonna get! You're looking for upside.

And no matter how much of it you see on the field or in the numbers, don't be fooled. If a guy has the genes that cause baldness in his family, he's going to suck at baseball. Just ask that lovable* little bald scamp Dustin Pedroia.

* = I hope Dustin Pedroia gets run over by a cement mixer

Derek Jeter

These kinds of things always happen in 3s.

hadn't shaved in high school, I don't think, when we signed him.

Don't tell that to the find folks at Gillette! He's making them a lot of money these days.

SB (playing devil's advocate): What if he shaves, but he's got a great face?

BS: Ooooh... that's a tough one. That's when you ask the scout, well, what do you think.

So the scout can pull some more random shit out of his ass about how good or not good the players is, based on absolutely nothing.

TK: Right. But if he shaves twice a day and has a low butt... done.

BS (making "you're outta here" motion with his thumb): Done.

The dreaded beard/buttsag combo.

SB (looking towards camera as it pans away, mercifully ending the segment): Well I think you've got three low butt guys here. (TK chuckles)

BS: Speak for yourself!

Fin.

So, yeah. That's why Billy Beane started GMing the way he did. The fact that anyone out there still tries to take pot shots at him, no matter how bad the A's have been since 2006, makes my brain hurt. What makes it hurt even more is the fact that no one questioned this nonsense earlier. As recently as 20 years ago, most teams were probably signing a large number of their players based in part on analysis like this. Wow.

Saturday, May 30, 2009

Writer Attempts to Understand Fielding Statistics; Lobotomy Ensues

Paul Daugherty of the Cincinnati Enquirer is surprised by the Reds' recent stretch of reasonably good baseball. Who isn't? But this article is a slop-fest of statistical foolishness. Check it out:

[Note: this article dates to 5/18 - I simply hadn't gotten around to it till now]

Numbers Add Up to Better Defense


In baseball, defining good defense is like catching a butterfly with a frying pan.


That's why some of us are professional writers and some of us are bloggers. Similes, ladies and gentlemen: not just something your tenth-grade English teacher tested you on.

It's the team with the fewest errors, right? It's the team with the best fielding percentage. Fewer errors equals better defense. Of course it does.

This is what we call a "straw man" - Paul is setting up the old version of baseballthink and oversimplifying it. Then, he will refute it! Paul is smarter than conventional baseball wisdom. QED!

Not really. Reds center fielder Willy Taveras gets to flyballs that some major league outfielders couldn't reach in Danica Patrick's ride.

Pop culture references are not the exclusive property of Bill Simmons. Even hometown joes can use 'em!

What if Taveras gets to a ball in the gap and drops it? He gets an error. Does that make him a bad outfielder?

Can't be fielding percentage, then. Must be putouts. Has to be. An outfielder with a lot of putouts has to be good. He's catching more balls. Makes perfect sense. OK, seamhead, but what if his pitching staff includes more flyball pitchers than groundball guys?

I love the "OK, seamhead" part - as though Mr. Daugherty is conceivably addressing someone who had thought a lot about fielding, but hadn't thought of the last point (which really isn't that complex).

I hope someday I'm in an argument and someone says, "OK, seamhead, listen to THIS!" Then I will slink away like I did when I lost a sixth-grade cap war.

See what I mean?

Yes.

The Reds defense is better this year. Even as they've made more errors than 29 other major league teams.

Now we're getting interesting. They're last in the majors in errors. That's not a good sign.

I asked readers of my blog to tell me where to go. (They're very good at that.) Actually, I wanted Web sites that delivered cold, hard facts when it came to catching butterflies with frying pans. The posters delivered.

Wow, never mind. Daugherty is cool. He takes advice from his blog's commenters. I take back all the snide, backhanded insults I used earlier.

One offered this helpful tidbit: Compare "the statistics of fielding percentage, number of putouts and assists, along with doubles, triples and inside-the-park home runs allowed by the outfielders this year to the 2008 team after 32 games."

A helpful tidbit to be sure, but it's really hard to measure the stat of "doubles allowed by outfielders"... usually you measure the "doubles allowed by pitchers" stat. I hear Adam Dunn allowed 28375 doubles last year, which was only exceeded by this guy, who allowed 298329757 doubles last year.

Whuh?

I don't think this word is in the dictionary.

Who do I look like, Norman Einstein?

A veiled pop culture reference! TV commentator (and Notre Dame graduate) Joe Theismann once allegedly claimed that "A genuis is a guy like Norman Einstein".

Someone else suggested Batting Average, Balls In Play: BABIP.

BABIP sounds like the hero of a jungle movie. "Babip, come quickly! The lion is eating the little boy!"

To some people, this could be construed as vaguely offensive. To no people, this could be construed as funny. Also, most reasonable commenters who understand what BABIP is will recognize that it doesn't do a great job measuring defense. But hey! it's a funny acronym, and thus it has a place in this article.

A few offered UZR, which isn't a designer steroid

That was a joke! Did you catch it? You wouldn't have caught it if I hadn't separated it like this!

but something called Ultimate Zone Rating. I was directed to an author named John Dewan, who has published the Fielding Bibles, I and II. After the bosses said I couldn't expense the Bibles, I blew that one off,

Gosh, the newspaper industry sure has fallen on hard times when you can't spend thirty-three bucks on books you don't really intend to read because you already don't like stats.

blasphemously.

That was another joke! Get it? He blew off Dewan's book, a "Bible", so it was like committing blasphemy!

Baseballprospectus.com offers a Defensive Efficiency rating, "the rate at which balls put into play are converted into outs." The Reds rank fifth in the major leagues.

Hey! A stat! Maybe that's why the Reds are doing well at defense! Why don't you explain this, Mr. Daugherty? That would be a great way to support your claim that the Reds' defense is better this year.

There were a lot of other, very small numbers to look at, but I felt myself slipping into a coma, so I stopped reading them.


Why were the numbers smaller? I have a subscription to BP.com myself and I'm pretty sure all the numbers are the same size. Was there a font problem? Are you actually narcoleptic? [Note: the link is definitely worth the very short time you will invest in it].

Generally, I think baseball stats are like vegetables: An important part of a well-balanced diet and occasionally hard to swallow.

You just spent the whole time mocking pretty much all the statistics - from errors to fielding % to UZR to BABIP to defensive efficiency. Which stats do you like? Which stats, like spinach, are actually good for you, even though they look funny on paper and have weird acronyms? Food metaphors for everyone!

So where do we go with this?

Last year, the Reds were hurt by Ken Griffey Jr.'s diminished range in right field and Adam Dunn's general mismanagement in left.

Amen. I actually like the phrase "general mismanagement" - it aptly describes Mr. Dunn's fielding ability. These guys explain how it works. [Note: the video is worth your time if you've ever been an opposing fan in the left-field bleachers at Wrigley].

But how much better are they now, with Jay Bruce in right and the Chris Dickerson/Laynce Nix combo in left?

More importantly: What has Willy Taveras given them in center field?

What a good pair of questions to ask. Bravo, Mr. Daugherty!

For what it's worth, Nix's and Taveras' RF/9 is a bit above league average, and Dickerson's a bit below. In contrast, Dunn's and Griffey's RF/9 for 2008 are both significantly below league average. Since the Reds' staff is generally the same staff as last year, it seems that the Reds' defense has improved substantially since last year! You're right, Paul!

I asked Sam Grossman. Sam who?

The Reds Manager of Baseball Research and Analysis. Like most astute baseball people, Grossman has a degree in mathematics from Northwestern. He worked in insurance, decided he'd rather not, took a few minor league internships and was hired by the Reds in 2007. Grossman crunches the fielding numbers.

Shit. I should follow my dream like Sam Grossman.

He reads play-by-plays like they're the Dead Sea Scrolls.

More Bible allusions! Anyone who reads this post all the way through will be older than Jared!

They show where balls are hit - their "zone" - and what happened. From there, Grossman employs a double-secret formula similar to the one used by the UZR folks: How hard was the ball hit? Was it off a right-handed or left-handed pitcher? And so on. Then the numbers are compared to the league average.


I wonder how "double-secret" this formula is. I also like how he calls them "the UZR folks".

That's basically how the Reds concluded last winter that Taveras would be a great, um, catch

Another joke! Get it? It's a pun!

as a free-agent center fielder. "It was as simple as (Taveras) turning into outs a lot of balls hit to him," Grossman says. "He played in two big center fields, first in Houston, then in Colorado. He made plays most visiting center fielders wouldn't make."
He still does.

He still has a .330 career OBP as a leadoff hitter. But that's not the point.

The UZR boys

Whatever happened to "UZR folks"? That sounds nicer. Either way, the "boys" and "folks" almost makes these dudes sound like rednecks. The good old UZR boys probably still live in their folks' basements anyways.

currently rank Taveras the second-best center fielder in the game. Jay Bruce - Jay Bruce! - is seen as the No. 1 right fielder. Overall, UZR says the Reds right now have the best outfield defense in baseball.


Excellent! Stats have proved Mr. Daugherty's point, even though he likes them about as much as he likes okra!

"Our formula rates our infield as average and our outfield a little above average," says Grossman, who adds helpfully, "Another guy uses what he calls 'probablistic model of range.' " We really don't want to go there.

I kind of want to go there. When you say "we" don't want to go there, Paul, don't include me in the royal "we". "You" and some other fans don't want to go there because it probably involves too much thinking. Baseball isn't about thinking. Baseball is about turning the double-play and executing bunts.

Grossman notes his work doesn't trump the eyeball work of scouts and general manager Walt Jocketty, but supplements and often confirms it. "A scout can tell you if a guy has good range," says Grossman. "This just quantifies it."


If a scout watches a guy play one game, how can he tell the extent of the player's range in all directions? The UZR, which "watches" every game a player plays, seems to be able to define a player's range a lot more accurately than a scout watching just a few games...

While stats are certainly not the end-all of baseball analysis, you gotta imagine that it stings a little bit for Grossman when he has to say shit like this.

To me, defense is judged best through daily watching. There ought to be a Web site: Watchthedamnedgame.com.

Paul, how are the Reds supposed to watch every game of every player they might want to trade for/sign/draft? It's just not plausible. Also, there is a web site like that: it's called www.mlb.tv and it's pretty great. I've subscribed the last five summers and there's no money better spent. I say, Paul, there ought to be a web site: www.firejournalistswhowritestupidthings.com.

"That's how I do it," Jocketty says. "We use (Grossman's) information as a baseline. I use input from scouts, and add my own. It all works together." But unless you're a genetic mutant or Bill James, you can't watch enough baseball to be an expert on every team's defense.

Wait, Bill James actually watches baseball? I thought played Strat-o-matic baseball in his garage every day. Huh.

Jocketty mentioned David Eckstein, the current San Diego Padres infielder who played shortstop on the St. Louis team that won the 2006 World Series. Eckstein's defense had to be seen daily to be believed. "Below average arm strength, OK range," Jocketty says. "But he always seemed to be able to position himself and get a throw off."

YES! Eckstein! It's like an unholy rule! Whenever any journalist wants to mention the "stats are stupid and some things in baseball are just unquantifiable", they have to cite the ECKSTEIN law. Seriously: as any discussion of statistical relevance in baseball grows, the probability of a comparison involving Eckstein approaches 1. It's a law.

Let me repeat one of the most ridiculous statments I've read recently:

"Eckstein's defense had to be seen daily to be believed".

Actually, nothing Eckstein does has to be seen to be believed. I've probably seen the guy play only three or four times in my whole life, and I can believe everything the guy does: play slightly-below average baseball.

Grossman says quantifying defensive ability "was the hardest thing to nail down, in the past. We're getting there."

Hooray for stat-guys!

The past? What's harder to judge now?

"The effect of team chemistry," he says. "The manager effect."

I can't wait until we come up with stats for these ones. The acronyms will be ridiculous!

The manager? That's an easy one. Just ask the fans what they think.

What? I thought this article was about defense?