No, I'm Not Dead, Part II

I've been more vigilant than you guys probably thought this past week and a half or so. The problem is that Jay Mariotti is over in China writing about the Olympics and such, and besides the fact that I think Michael Phelps is a complete toolbox (seriously, who rides around in a car with a stack of T-shirts, puts each on one at a time, takes it off, and throws it to the crowd? Maybe I'm just jealous that he can pound 10,000 calories per day and look SO GOOD!), I really don't have anything to say about those events.

Anyway, let's do a JerryChat. You see, he's not highly regarded enough to be limited to insiders.

Tuesday's topic, courtesy of John in Herndon, Va.:
'With the Twins taking three of four from the White Sox over the weekend, and Chicago's ballooning ERA, who will win the AL Central: Chicago, Minnesota, or possibly Detroit?'

I can hear you all groaning. Yes, it's more crap about the White Sox. AL Central stuff. I know. Riveting. A little-known fact* about me: I'm a Toronto Blue Jays fan.

THE CASE FOR THE WHITE SOX

They have a bunch of veterans still around from the 2005 World Series season, so they know what it takes to fight through the tough times.

Delmon Young, on the other hand, has never faced any adversity ever.

The bullpen is strong (in theory) with Octavio Dotel and Scott Linebrink in the seventh and eighth innings and Bobby Jenks in the ninth. Jose Contreras is about to come off the disabled list and rejoin the rotation, and Linebrink has begun a throwing program in his recovery from a shoulder problem.

I just copied this to give everyone a nice timeframe for this article.

THE CASE FOR THE TWINS
After hearing for more than a month that they're destined to fade, the Twins are starting to believe they're for real.

I can imagine an early July discussion between Joe Mauer and Carlos Gomez.

Joe: We can't keep this up. Our batting average with runners in scoring position is insane. We're getting by on 4 overperforming #3 starters and the ghost of Livan Hernandez. Sure, Liriano might come back, but who knows if he'll be good? There's very little chance.

Carlos: Plus, don't forget what that PECOTA thingy said. Oh shit, I'm fading, man!

Fast forward to today:

Joe and Carlos (together, holding hands, frolicking through a field of posies): We're starting to believe in ourselves! We're better than before!

That's exactly how it happened. I promise. And it's the best argument possible for why the Twins will win the division.

Despite hitting only 79 homers -- a little more than half Chicago's total of 154 -- the Twins have scored 553 runs, exactly the same as the White Sox.

And this doesn't scream "fluke" to you? The White Sox even have a slightly higher OBP!

Yes, Minnesota's rotation is young and inexperienced, and the Twins' inability to replace injured setup man Pat Neshek could come back to haunt them. The schedule also works in Chicago's favor.

Pretty irrelevant, fairly important, VERY important. Followed up by....

But there's something to be said for

Oh God...

karma

What?

fresh legs

No no no...wait. Stop. Go back to that other one. The karma thing.

What???

Karma???

Are the White Sox notoriously evil and the Twins notoriously a bunch of kind-hearted souls? What are you driving at here, Crasnick?

Okay, I've reacted enough. Next stupid thing!

fresh legs

Is having 2 injured starting position players as opposed to one for the White Sox a good case for this? "Fast legs," maybe, but fresh? Paul Konerko's fresher than Mentos, he's just fucking slow.

and good arms

White Sox ERA: 3.91
Twins ERA: 4.27

How do you measure good arms, Jerry?

and the Twins have the edge in each of those commodities

No, they absolutely do not. This is an irrefutable fact. The one they're most clearly behind in is the last one, which is probably the only important one.

This is one of those 51 vs. 49 percent calls, but we'll go with the underdog and take Minnesota.

pnoles: Hey Jerry, who's gonna win the Central?

Jerry Crasnick: Well eh...the White Sox have the best chance of winning, so I predict Minnesota.

SportsNation Jerry Crasnick: Hey guys, Everybody knows about the Midwest bias here at ESPN. Today it's all about the American League Central. Let's get started ...

I hope to God that was a joke. I'm thinking it probably was (and if it was, good one), but can you imagine if he really thinks there's a midwest bias at ESPN?

Tim (Lawrence, KS): Who would win a Prince Fielder-Manny Parra smackdown?

SportsNation Jerry Crasnick: Tim, I'd have to put my money on the big, power-hitting vegetarian at first base.

I'm printing this because it's the one correct answer that Jerry gives.

Matt (Syracuse): This one is a no brainer. Minnesota has inexperienced pitchers, while the White Sox hold one of the most powerful offenses in the league. With the addition of Griffey in the lineup, the White Sox will gel and pull away from the Twins in the AL Central, eventually winning the American League.

SportsNation Jerry Crasnick: Matt, The White Sox might have one of the most powerful offenses in the league, but they've scored 553 runs -- exactly the same as the Twins (who've played one more game).

We've been over this. Pretty damn lucky.

Chicago does it with power and Minnesota has done it with speed and timely hitting.

"Chicago does it with a skill thing, Minnesota does it with a skill thing of lesser value and a luck thing."

Which one do YOU think will hang on?

Everybody keeps saying the Twins are a mirage with that .317 average with runners in scoring position.

What morons....

But we've been saying it for weeks now, and they're still hanging around.

Easy schedule, still good luck, etc. Only one road series in the past 4 weeks that wasn't against one of the 3 worst teams in the AL.

Pablo, Los angeles, CA.: I am a White Sox fan(I don't know Why) but I agree with you The Sox don't play with the heart the Twins do. And unless they get another pitcher and speedy player, the Twins will teach The Chisox another lesson, and break our hearts AGAIN.

SportsNation Jerry Crasnick: Pablo, I thought I'd get savaged by White Sox fans for picking the Twins, but I've had a few people post the same sentiment as you -- that some intangible ingredient is missing from this year's White Sox. And if things don't get better, you have to think the pressure will be ratcheted up in Chicago. The Twins, on the other hand, have every reason to be loose. Nobody expects them to be here.

Oh yeah, every expert was picking the White Sox to take the Central before the season. Everyone totally expected this. Twins play loose, White Sox play under pressure. Provable. Intelligent. Analysis.

Matt (IN): How much do you think the Twins road trip due to the national convention will come into play here? Thanks

SportsNation Jerry Crasnick: Matt, I asked Ron Gardenhire about it a month ago, and he said it would be great because the Twins would get "a lot of meal money.'' Let's put it this way: He's not going to let it become an issue.

Oh, so that's how you determine whether a long road trip will negatively affect the team. "Hey Ron Gardenhire, is your team gonna crash and burn on your road trip?" "Oh yeah, Jerry, totally! We're screwed! We suck on the road!"

Since the Twins are such a young club, I think it might have less of a negative impact than it would on an older club.

Oh. My. Giddy. Aunt.

This is quite possibly the biggest double-standard in baseball journalism. If you want to argue for a young team, say that they'll get by on their energy. If you want to argue against a young team, just claim their inexperienced! Why can't I just say, "Hey Jerry, if the Twins were a little more experienced, wouldn't that lessen the negative impact of the road trip?"

You owe me the biggest fucking explanation of all time for this one. HOW DOES THE AGE OF THE TWINS AFFECT HOW THEY PLAY ON AN EXTENDED ROADTRIP, YOU FUCKING ASSHAT?

Dustin,(Moore, ok): Everyone has said all year ...The twins will fade, they are a year away, this is a rebuilding year, ect...When will people realize that talent and good coaching are a part of this as well, and actually give the twins credit instead of waiting for them to fail?

SportsNation Jerry Crasnick: Dustin, It makes sense that a team that's middle-of-the-pack in OBP and slugging is going to have a hard time producing runs by continuing to hit .317 with runners in scoring position. But now that we're in August, it's time to acknkowledge that the Twins aren't a fluke.

So there have been zero fluky teams in history to still be in contention in August. Huh. Makes sense. Kind of like the 2007 Mariners. They were in it this late, and they weren't a fluke, and all they had to do was add Erik Bedard and Carlos Silva for their tremendous 2008 World Championship run. Because they weren't a fluke.

Ted (Minneapolis): Do you think that Ron Gardenhire should have some say as the manager of the year? Since he has taken the Twins this far without one of the best pitchers of the game in Santana?

I would like to point out that the manager of every contending team in baseball except Jerry Manuel has accomplished this feat.

SportsNation Jerry Crasnick: Ted, He should get some consideration, but Joe Maddon of Tampa Bay is still the frontrunner.

Make that two correct answers. Even if Joe Maddon is kind of stupid.

Daniel (Chicago, IL): It seems to me that the Sox's inability to score runs without the long ball is a real red flag that will hurt them immensely if they get cold down the stretch. You could argue that a team with so many power bats is immune to that, but that argument's been made and disproven for dozens of teams (see Chicago Cubs, 2004). The Twins, on the other hand, don't hit a ton of home runs but can still knock one out when they need to. Just my two cents.

Daniel seems to think that the Twins can hit a home run whenever they choose.

SportsNation Jerry Crasnick: Daniel, We'll see. Three run homers are great, but it's hard to rely on them. The White Sox are a station to station team and they're going to be prone to fallow stretches when they're not hitting the ball out of the park.

April: 33 HR
May: 28 HR
June: 48 HR
July: 37 HR
Half of August: 19 HR
May record: 16-13

Seems pretty rock solid to me! Here's another theory. When you have tons of guys that hit tons of HR, including the top 2 guys in the league, you're pee-robably not going to go through that kind of stretch. Sound good? Good.

Patrick, Chicago: Jerry, im sorry to disagree with you and others who have said this team has no fight... We had a bad stretch in Minni and in KC, but do you not recal the dramtic (and crucial) come from behind wins IN DETROIT JUST LAST WEEKEND?? We have been doing it all year, this team does fight. The unsung key in all this is Javier Vazquez, who has the stuff to be a top flight starter, and has shown glimpses. His last start against the Royals was very good... if he gets on track with Danks and Floyd, the Sox will win the division.

This man just derailed Crasnick's entire fluff-based argument. Your response, Jerry?

SportsNation Jerry Crasnick: Patrick, Glad to see some spunk from a White Sox fan. That's the spirit!

Beeee-youtiful.

*definition of "fact" is the sole discretion of me, myself, and I.