When Anecdotal Bullshit Goes Horribly Horribly Wrong

"Anecdotal bullshit" is a phrase that gets bandied about FireJayMariotti quite a bit. (A phrase that, sadly, is rarely bandied about is "bandied about".) I originally used it in reference to a Dr. Z mailbag in which he made a completely anecdotal claim about Terrell Owens quitting on routes, a claim I had never so much as heard before and one which he didn't so much as back up with one example. It was both anecdotal (insofar as Dr. Z didn't even attempt to defend his statement with anything else but his claim to authority) and bullshit (insofar as it didn't pass the smell test--Terrell Owens has been bashed for many things, as far as I remember, throughout his career, but I never once heard his onfield commitment questioned).

That's not to say Dr. Z is wrong. I really don't know whether Terrell Owens has never quit on a route since I have not seen every single play of every single game TO played. However, in order for me to buy some out-of-left-field claim, I expect a little more than just say so.

With that said, here's the latest example of anecdotal bullshit from one of Dr. Z's colleagues on the SI.com blogosphere. Andrew Perloff, whom I believe this site has tackled before, has a theory. A very counterintuitive and outlandish theory that none of the superstars from the Minnesota Vikings powerhouse offense of the late 90's-early 00's were really all that good. Anyone who remembers watching Randy Moss and Daunte Culpepper play during that time period remembers them as a dominating tandem in the NFC North---something they could have found to be true both in the statistics column, the win column, and in myriad highlight reels of Moss and Culpepper's heroics.

So how does Perloff decide to make his wildly outrageous and contrarian point? You guessed it! ANECDOTAL BULLSHIT!

I have a theory that will be put to the test this
season: You can't trust any player's statistics from the 1998-2004 Vikings.

This is a vague and rather innocuous opening. Of course you can't completely trust a player's statistics. Hell, before Peyton Manning won his first Super Bowl people would claim (rather idiotically) that you couldn't trust even his mind-blowing stats because he didn't do what QB's are supposed to do.

Probably wrong, but besides the point--because Perloff goes on to take this in an unbelievably absurd direction.

The Vikings' powerhouse offense
produced career seasons for quarterbacks such as Randall Cunningham, Jeff George
and Daunte Culpepper and helped receivers Cris Carter and Randy Moss put up
staggering numbers.

None of those players had any success after
leaving Minnesota. The litmus test will be to see how Moss performs in New
England, although his numbers will almost certainly suffer from the Patriots'
offensive balance. But if he makes a handful of circus touchdown catches I'll
give him the benefit of the doubt.

Ok. So what we have here is:

5 players. Two potential Hall of Famers. One probable Hall of Famer. One Pro-Bowler. One shitty player who happened to have a good year.

Perloff claims that these players prove his point insofar as none of them were successful after they left Minnesota. Let's look at this using any kind of mental brainpower (any being any amount greater than zero, the amount Perloff obviously expended):

Daunte Culpepper has spent an entire YEAR away from Minnesota. He left after sustaining a major knee injury, one he obviously has not recovered from. Some might blame the Metrodome's turf for that. Some might blame the fact that he's like 300 pounds. Some (Perloff) might ignore that fact and pretend like his lack of success has nothing to do with his knee injury and everything to do with the idea that Minnesota makes players look much better than they actually are.

Randy Moss has spent a grand total of two seasons in Oakland, playing for one of the most pathetic offenses in football (they have been in the bottom 3 of most offensive statistical categories throughout Moss's tenure there). Furthermore, Moss is known to quit on his team, and has expressed dissatisfaction at not getting the ball. This doesn't speak highly of Moss's character, but it certainly doesn't support Perloff's point

Cris Carter spent the last year of his career in Miami. THE LAST YEAR OF HIS CAREER. He didn't put up very good numbers, but then again it was THE LAST YEAR OF HIS CAREER. And it's not like he put up very good numbers the preceeding year at Minnesota. He had 73 catches and 6 touchdowns. Wowee. Further, does it occur to anyone (it occurs to me) that perhaps going from playing alongside the best WR in football (Moss) to playing alongside...no one...might have hurt his numbers? Just wondering.

Cunningham spent TWO WHOLE YEARS of the twilight of his career away from Minnesota. They weren't good, but aging QBs' final years rarely are. It's also relevant to note that his last year at Minnesota wasn't particularly good. 8 TDs to 9 INT is not exactly dominant.

And Jeff George. Who the fuck cares about Jeff George?

If Moss is just adequate in New
England and Culpepper has trouble regaining a starting job, this group of
ex-Vikes will be strong proof of the theory that it's the system more than the
players in today's NFL. Something to consider when evaluating Carter's Hall of
Fame chances, although the sure-handed and fiercely competitive receiver seems
like a lock for Canton.

this is just silly. Randy Moss is in his 9th year this year. If he doesn't play well, it just might have something to do with the fact that many WR's don't age well, especially ones like Moss whose whole game was based on speed and agility. Keyshawn Johnson started to bite hard ass by his 9th year. And if Culpepper never recovers from a career threatening injury that ought not prove anything.

This article is mind-boggling. Honestly. Perloff makes a good point in saying:

Of course, I always argue that it's the
system more than the players, and most people usually disagree with me. I just
think it's too big a coincidence that the greatest quarterback and greatest wide
receiver in league history happen to have played in San Francisco at the same
time. Same can be said for the current version of the Colts.

But even that doesn't hold much water. Montana continued to be a solid QB, even at the twilight of his career, with Kansas City. Jerry Rice, up till he was like 50, dominated at WR under Young and the various backups that filled in when Young's brain was bleeding.

Manning is clearly the best QB in the league, but in his early years Harrison clearly made him better. Now Manning makes Harrison better. It's not that hard to see. No one would have ever said that in Manning's first 3 years (when Harrison actually was one of the best WR's in football) that Manning was the best QB in football. Now, no one ever tries to claim that Harrison is still "the greatest wide receiver in [the nfl]" (he actually said league history...eep).

Furthermore, though Moss was the greatest WR in football at his peak, it's silly to claim that anyone ever said Culpepper was the best QB. Culpepper was a product of the system, no doubt. That doesn't mean that Perloff is right. What it means was much of the Vikings game plan was to get the ball downfield to Moss. Culpepper was great at throwing the deep ball, and moving the pocket on busted plays that developed because of the time required to get Moss downfield. Furthermore, Culpepper was a master at throwing the red zone fade to Moss that was almost a trademark of the team.

Yes a lot of this has to do with "system," but the point is that the system had to do with the fact that Moss was bigger, faster, and a better athlete than everyone else in the defensive backfield. Moss was the system and you can watch game film, read articles about how teams have to fucking gameplan to try to CONTAIN (not shut down, but CONTAIN) Moss, or look at his fucking numbers (which weren't that awful even in the vast wasteland of Oakland).

Christ, it's not that hard Perloff. Buy a clue.