Thursday, March 1, 2012

As entertaining as the comment war going on in the next post down is

Let's see what Jon Heyman has to say about the Ryan Zimmerman extension. (And by the way, all of you who think that everything Braun has said is a bunch of face-saving malarkey while everything Mr. Steroid Test Collector Guy has said is the absolute unaltered truth are fucking killing me. You're just. Fucking. Killing me. But I'll let Chris W fight that fight for now.)

The immediate reaction to Ryan Zimmerman's $100 million, six-year extension with the Nationals was this: Where's the hometown discount?

Where's the beef am I right LOL? To answer the question seriously, something I'm loathe to do but am forced to because providing actual analysis in my posts is one of the conditions of my parole, here's how I see it: If Adrian Beltre's age 32 to 37 seasons are worth $96MM over six years (after five years in Seattle, three of which were pretty awful, and one "Hey wait I need another big contract!" season in Boston), then I'm pretty sure that Zimmerman's age 29 to 34 seasons were going to be worth a good amount more than that had he hit the market after 2013. Just pulling numbers out of my ass FanGraphs style here but let's say $120MM/6. Maybe more if the Yankees were ready to move Fish Fillet-Rod (shoutout to Eriz) to DH at that point.

Zimmerman's total contract, which now runs through 2019, guarantees him $126 million, including the two years he already had on his deal. Forget that $126 million has been an unlucky number in baseball contracts (see Vernon Wells, Barry Zito and Nationals teammate Jayson Werth),

Yes, forget that, even if you're a superstitious idiot who normally wouldn't forget it, because Zimmerman hasn't signed a contract for that dollar amount.

it just seems a bit high considering 1) Zimmerman has an injury history,

He missed a medium amount of time in 2008 and 2011 but still cleared 100 games in both seasons. In his other four full seasons he averaged 157 GP. All told he's averaging 136 GP per year. Yes, loosely speaking, he has a history of being injured. No, he is not a fragile player. No, he is not a likely candidate to miss extended time in the future. No, Jon Heyman doesn't give a shit. Jon Heyman is the kind of idiot who would bother to note that there have been some bad $126MM contracts in recent history, and that if you squint and cock your head to the side and stand on one foot, it kind of looks like Zimmerman signed a $126MM contract.

2) he sprayed a few throws in recent years,

So dumb it's not even worth addressing, other than to say that both by advanced metrics and "the eye test"/traditional scouting, Zimmerman is somewhere between a decent and really good defensive player.

and 3) the Nationals have a top third-base prospect in Anthony Rendon.

And since all prospects always pan out... aw, snap.

Said one competing executive of the Nats' two nine-figure deals now in the books: "Seems like they have two $100 million contracts but no $100 million payers.''

PLEEEEEEEEASE please please please please tell me it was Ruben Amaro who said that.

No matter what anyone on the outside thinks, Zimmerman was said to be the Nats' No. 1 priority this winter, and they did get the deal done. They love him for his defense,

But he has sprayed throws in recent years! It was in all the papers!

his clutch hitting,

Always critical to a learned baseball man like Heyman.

his personality and his local roots (University of Virginia). They also recall that he led the majors in WAR one year.

If true, that would be a HUGE strike against Heyman's argument. Fortunately for him it's not, but Zimmerman still seems like a good candidate to be a 4 to 6 win player early in this contract (huge bargain) and maybe a 2.5 to 4 win player later on (a little overpaid or properly paid).

Zimmerman did agree to a $10 million personal services deferral, which means only $116 million of the $126 million counts as payroll and could help the Nationals in terms of flexibility.

The Jinx of Zito is no more! Shrewd move, Mike Rizzo!

/video of Brian Sabean punching a hole through the top of a stovepipe hat

But the reality is he's a one-time All-Star.

Wait, what? Holy shit you can't be serious.

And that's a lot of loot for a one-time All-Star.

Wow, you really did end up boiling it down to the number of times he's made the all star team. That's awesome. And Heyman's analysis ends right there. Well, how about that. Hold on for a sec, let me check my computer machine for something really quick...

Ah, yup, there it is. Yadier Molina is a THREE time All-Star. No wonder his age 30 through 34 seasons are apparently well worth almost $15MM per. MOLINA'S VALUE GOES WAY BEYOND WHAT THE NUMBERS SHOW! NO ONE APPRECIATES HIM, EXCEPT THE MILLIONS OF FANS AND DOZENS OF WRITERS WHO CRY ALL THE TIME ABOUT HOW NO ONE APPRECIATES HIM! (Quick tangent: Dear (most) Cardinals fans, go the fuck away. You're the fucking worst and I hope your team never ever wins another playoff game. I'd cheer for the Red Sox if they played you in the WS this fall, perish the thought. Fuck you and fuck your smug and undeserved sense of accomplishment. Your city stinks and so does your team. I hope Pujols hits 800 career home runs and goes into the hall as an Angel. Signed, not a Cubs fan even though I bet you're sure I am at this point) Meanwhile Zimmerman's value is apparently wholly demonstrated by the fact that he missed like fifty games during two of the past six seasons.

/sits and waits eight years so he can laugh about how bad the Molina deal was and how reasonable the Zimmerman deal was


Chris W said...

They have a 3B prospect who might be as good as Zimmerman in 3-4 years if absolutely everything goes perfectly amd whom, since they ave Zimmerman, they can trade for whatever position of need they have at any given time. What a good argument for not extending Zimmerman!!!!

Jack M said...

I think you're pretty obviously showing your bias by labeling the comment war as entertaining.

Anonymous said...

You can't deny that Ryan Braun has been acting like a real bully lately.

Anonymous said...

Oh wait, that last comment would've made more sense if I had linked to one of the 100 articles calling Ryan Braun a bully.

Larry B said...

I just read a USA today editorial calling Braun a bully while (surprise!) giving the sample collector full benefit of the doubt and assuming that everything he said is absolutely true. My head hurts and I am embarressed for the author.

Chris W said...

The author is christine brennan. Do a search on fjaym for christine brennan

Chris W said...

Also, I love that Braun is being called a bully. In no circumstance is he a bully.

1.) there was malfeasance in how the sampler handled the sample. In this case, he would be something approximating the OPPOSITE of a bully.

2.) The collector did nothing wrong, and Braun is lying. That would make him a lawbreaker and slanderer.

Maybe you want to call circumstance #2 "bullying", which I guess is a question of semantics, but regardless, it seems pretty clear that anyone calling Braun a bully has decided unequivocally--absent evidence--that Braun is lying.

Chris W said...

Oh, and here's another Brennan article, for your all's enjoyment

Jeremy Massler said...

It's cool that I may have influenced Larry/Chris to comment on the Brennan article.

And to clarify my comment (mentioning 100 articles), I was probably conflating the Brennan article with an AP article written by Tim Dahlberg and which was subsequently run in lots and lots of different news outlets, including SI and the Boston Globe.

As well as conflating it with Twitter comments...