Bill's Guide to Gambling (alternate title: How to Lose Money By Being Stupid), Part 1

[DISCLAIMER: I'm about to write a lot about NFL gambling, and criticize Bill heavily for his gambling analysis and picks.  I enjoy gambling on the NFL.  I am also terrible at it, and freely admit this.  I would never pretend otherwise.  I would never tell anyone, whether in person or in writing, that I had some kind of a system or set of rules that was going to help me win this season or ever.  I will always happily talk about what I think are good bets to make for the coming weekend's games.  I will always admit as part of that discussion that my advice is probably terrible and should not be followed by anyone.  Now that I have that out of the way, let's begin.]

Bill makes no secret about how much he loves gambling, and he probably writes about gambling on the NFL more than anything else these days.  (A close 2nd: speculation as to how we will look back in ten years on certain regular season NBA games that were kind of exciting.)  However, despite his passion for it, Bill is objectively goddamn treefuckingly awful at picking NFL games.  That's where the rest of us get to have some fun.  

Since 2010, and through 3 weeks of the 2014 season, Bill is 516-529 picking against the spread.  (He has a number of pushes as well, of course, which I'm not going to list because fuck you I don't want to.  This is why the season totals below add up to fewer than the 256 regular season games that make up an NFL season.)  That means that if you had followed his picks and put down $10 on every single game, and the payout was -110, as it almost always is for an NFL ATS pick, you would have lost just under $600 over that period of time.  The numbers break down like this:

2010: 131-119.  Bill's picks broke almost exactly dead even for the season; after factoring in the house edge (explained below if you don't know about it), betting $10 a game would have left you up $0.91 at season's end.

2011: 120-127.  Betting $10 a game would have left you down $179.

2012: 132-120.  Betting $10 a game would have left you exactly spot on dead even.

2013: 108-140, yes that's right, he was 108-140.  Betting $10 a game would have left you down $418.

2014: So far, he's 25-23.  Betting $10 a game would have left you down $2.72 so far.

(For those of you who don't have experience losing money on sports gambling like I do, -110 means you have to bet $110 to win $100, or $11 to win $10, etc.  In other words if you bet wins, you don't double your money--you win about 90% of the amount of the bet, on top of getting your original bet back.  This is how the house makes money on sports gambling--they set/adjust lines to get an even amount of money on each side of the spread, and the winning side gets less than double their money back, leaving the casino with a small profit.  Anyone who tells you sports books try to operate in any other fashion is a fucking moron.)  

Now, for the average person, there is no shame in this.  It's hard to pick games consistently.  While theoretically a monkey flipping a coin should pick 50% of game correctly over a large enough sample size of games, and Bill has only picked 49.4% of them correctly since 2010, that's not a big deal.  Then you factor in the -110 house edge, and it gets extremely hard to beat the house consistently.  The vast vast majority of gamblers don't beat the house in the long term, which is why casinos and bookies exist.  If your friend is down $600 on football bets in the last few seasons, you should not automatically give that friend a bunch of shit about it unless they hold themselves out as some wunderkind gambling expert.  

And that's the problem with Bill: he absolutely holds himself out, in a very public forum, as a wunderkind gambling expert.  He very, very, VERY clearly is not.  Even in his best years, he's picking 52.5ish% of games correctly, and breaking even on money.  This does not stop him from 1) talking about NFL gambling all the time, including running his picks column every week every year, 2) but more obnoxiously, regularly publishing "manifestos" and other articles that claim to have cracked some kind of secret code such that following the advice therein should lead to fabulous riches, and most obnoxiously, 3) throwing arrogant little quips to the effect of "THIS LINE IS THREE POINTS TOO HIGH, THANKS FOR THE FREE MONEY VEGAS" into his columns left and right.  It would be one thing if he was a self-professed gambling enthusiast who loves picking NFL games, but had the self-awareness to acknowledge that he wasn't very good at it.  But as anyone who has read him since about 2002 knows, "Bill Simmons" and "self-awareness" are two things that do not exist together.  

So, enough blabbing and introducing.  Let's get to the meat.  What follows is Bill's latest example of #2 in the list in the previous paragraph; here we have the official, top secret, no holds barred Bill Simmons 2014 NFL Gambling Guide.  If the breakdown of his success rate above wasn't enough to make you want to find him and try to become his personal bookie, this article should push you over the edge.

Football, football, football, football!

FOOTBALL!!!!!!!!

Superb exposition from America's most popular "sports" "writer."

If you missed my Thursday column about Roger Goodell’s NFL That Never Sleeps (featuring my winning Seahawks minus-6 pick!), here’s the link.

Sure won't be clicking on that.  Thanks for the offer though!  Also, most people with brains have known for years that Roger Goodell is a complete shithead with no redeeming qualities.  In that "NFL That Never Sleeps" column (which was published on September 5, just a few days before the Ray Rice inside the elevator video dropped), Bill does jump on Goodell for several things, including his fumbling of the Rice suspension proceedings.  But then Bill decides that ol' Rog does have several things going for him.  First among those:

First, his multi-scene cameo in Draft Day was fantastic. I loved his chemistry with Frank Langella.

DIE.  

If you want to send along a mailbag question for my Friday NFL Picks column this season (and I’m going to need good ones as always), here’s the link.

Don't bother--he's just going to make them up and assign them to fictitious fans (most of them women) anyways.

If you want to listen to my Guess the Lines podcasts with Cousin Sal every Monday, here’s the link.

I would rather listen to 45 minutes of a squeaky ceiling fan.

If you want to make fun of my five weekly LVH Supercontest Picks on my Facebook page, here’s the link.

A shred of self awareness!  We will touch on this later, because he does make a couple other cracks at his own expense.  Don't worry (and I know you weren't), it's not going to ruin the line of thought behind this blog post.

If you want to pick games against me, Ian Ziering, David Hasselhoff, Gary Busey, Mark McGrath and other well-known celebs in the 2014 Celebrity Picks Challenge Presented by Fireball Whisky, here’s the link.

"Ian Ziering" "Mark McGrath" "well-known celebs"

OK.

Here’s the good news: My Friday picks column is now old enough to vote for president, fight for our country and maybe even be someone’s freshman roommate in college. That’s right … it’s Year 18. And you think so little of me at this point that you clicked on the link in the previous paragraph. 

HE'S CALLING YOU OUT, READERS.  PUT YOUR MONEY WHERE YOUR MOUTH IS, AND DO YOUR BEST TO TAKE ON THIS GUY WHO IS NOT AS GOOD AT PICKING GAMES AGAINST THE SPREAD AS PAUL THE OCTOPUS WOULD HAVE BEEN (R.I.P, Paul the Octopus).

Now you have that detestable “Rude” song running through your head for the rest of the day. 

Now he's just going out of his way to be annoying to his readers.  But I certainly do agree with him.  That song is ass herpes in audio form.

And you deserve it. I thought we had something. I hope you feel bad.

I feel bad that I'm still blogging about how dumb you are, seven years into this blog's existence.  Mariotti got fired (more than once).  Rick Reilly stepped down/was quietly fired.  Joe Morgan got fired.  Why are you still there?

Anyway, way back in September of 1997, I was living in Boston and writing for my self-created “Boston’s Sports Guy” website for millions and millions of readers. Fine, it was hundreds and hundreds. 

#humblebrag

But that was the year I unleashed my first batch of mostly mediocre picks on an unsuspecting America. It’s been trial and error ever since. Mostly error. 

Again, some humility/self awareness.  Let's see how quickly he can reverse course and set flame to any goodwill those last few sentences might have generated with unassuming readers who think Bill is anything but a self-absorbed know-it-all asshole.

I juggled a handful of handicapping laws before eventually settling for the Gambling Manifesto That’s In My Head.

First of all, before we get to the substance of this, don't use the word "manifesto."  It generally has a negative/terroristic connotation, and even when it doesn't, if you suck at the thing about which you're writing some kind of master plan, it's super embarrassing.

Why abandon a tried-and-true manifesto? 

Because it never worked, was never going to work, and had no utility whatsoever?

I learned the hard way that football changes too much from year to year to survive too many enduring rules. 

Bill, for 17 years: "I have it all figured out!  The magic formula that leads to NFL gambling success!  THIS season it's going to be different!"
Bill, year 18: "I have come to the conclusion that football changes from year to year.  Therefore, I have a whole NEW magic formula that will lead to NFL gambling success!  THIS season, it's going to be different!"

For instance, the gambling gods conspired in 2013 to ruin everyone who fancied himself a handicapping expert. 

No, they didn't.  There are no gambling gods.  You just had a shitty season.  Like you did in 2011.  And probably many, many other seasons since 1997.

Every sharp and every degenerate will remember the devastating Great Gambling Train Wreck of 2013 years and years from now, 

HOW WILL WE LOOK BACK ON THIS MOMENT IN THE FUTURE WHEN WE ARE WONDERING WHAT IT WAS LIKE TO CONTEMPLATE WHAT IT WOULD BE LIKE TO LOOK BACK ON A PARTICULAR MOMENT MAN I AM SO DEEP.

the same way we’ll remember earthquakes, political scandals and unauthorized Saved by the Bell movies. 

Dude, you're like 45.  You were too old for Saved by the Bell during its original run.  You don't get to complain about its direction since.

My B.S. Report buddy and future Gamblers Anonymous roommate, Cousin Sal, 

I hate Cousin Sal.  I have never once listened to a B.S. Report or Pick the Lines podcast and I still hate him with all my heart.  Cousin Sal sucks.

recently sent me an invaluable link from The Sporting News. The three most relevant quotes from that piece, along with my notes in parentheses.

I'm leaving that link in, because even if it just says "pick the team that seems to you like it probably will do better," it is more helpful to prospective NFL gamblers than anything Bill has to say.

“In 2013, NFL favorites covered the spread at a 52.2 percent clip, the highest rate since 2005 and the third highest in the last 25 years … since 1990, NFL favorites covered an average of just 48.7 percent of games.”

Right, so, last year was a good year for favorites.  Better than any year since... not that long ago.  In other words, it wasn't some kind of unprecedented catastrophe for underdogs.  Weren't we just hearing about how GAMBLERS WILL TALK ABOUT THE GREAT UNDERDOG SLAUGHTER OF 2013 WHILE GAMBLING ON MOON FOOTBALL FROM THEIR MOON BASES?  Why don't we hear anything about the GREAT UNDERDOG SLAUGHTER OF 2005 today?  Most likely this is became Bill Simmons is a fucking dunderhead.

Anyways, brace yourself for what comes next.  This is one for the record books, folks.  It doesn't get much better than this.

(That’s bad. That’s very, very, very bad. Every “smart” gambler is trained to grab the points and go against the public as much as we possibly can. That’s how we butter our bread. Swing our luck by 3.5 percentage points and we’re in major trouble ranging from “Crap, I have to reload my off-shore betting account for the third time this month?” to “If I don’t meet some guy named Big Al in the parking lot behind Target on Main Street by 7:30 on Wednesday night, I’m gonna be walking with a limp.”)

DIE
DIE
DIE

Not sure which is worse--his conflation of "going against the public" with taking underdogs, or his use of "we" after referring to "smart gamblers," because hey, what says "smart" like beating the house once (by a minuscule amount) once every five seasons?  And yes, I understand that there's a kernel of truth to the taking the points/going against the house part, as nobodies who gamble once a year when they happen to be in Vegas for a business conference are probably slightly more likely to bet good/favored teams; but first of all the house will adjust the line accordingly, second of all the amount of action coming from people with such an unsophisticated view of a game is going to be pretty low unless it's a playoff game, a Thanksgiving game, etc., and third of all, seriously, read that paragraph again and see if you can talk yourself into thinking Bill even understands that much.  I sure can't.

“(For) seasons in which NFL favorites covered more than 51.5 percent (since 1990) … the average for those five seasons was 53.3 percent. In years following those seasons (highlighted in green), favorites covered, on average, just 47 percent of games. That’s a 6.3 percent swing (from 53.3 percent to 47 percent).”

(Wait, this is good! Is that why The Sporting News made the real headline for this column “The Year of the Dog”? I think it is!)

Any evidence that trend is somehow a result of causation (maybe some quote from a guy who runs a book about how the casinos then to overcorrect after a particularly favorite heavy year, or something)?  Because if there isn't any such evidence, then basically, the "swing back" phenomenon to heavy underdog wins the year after heavy favorite wins is no more reliable than saying "Hey look!  After this roulette wheel hits three black numbers in a row, a red number usually comes next!  TIME TO TAKE OUT A SECOND MORTGAGE!"  I mean, I could totally see it being causal, rather than random chance.  But it's good to see Bill isn't thinking that far.  HE'S JUST LOOKING FOR TRENDS, GANG.  GOTTA FOLLOW THE TRENDS.  THAT'S HOW "SMART" GAMBLERS BUTTER THEIR BREAD.

“In 2006, the year after the best NFL season for favorites in the last 25 years (57.8 percent of favorites covered in 2005), 

I STILL REMEMBER THOSE DAYS.  THOSE WERE DARK DAYS FOR J-HENCH AND I.  WE LOST EVERYTHING BETTING ON DOGS THAT FALL.  EVERYTHING.  CARS, WATCHES, KIDS.  IT WAS A BLOODBATH.

dogs ruled, with favorites covering just 44.6 percent. After the second best season for favorites (52.9 percent in 1998), dogs again cleaned up, as favorites went just 46.5 percent ATS. The third best year for NFL favorites was last season.”

(Translation: Year of the Dog, Part Three!!!!!!!)

IT'S FREE MONEYYYYYYY!  As noted above, Bill is 25-23 so far this season.  He has picked 21 dogs and 26 favorites (1 game has been a pick 'em).  To his credit, his dog picks are 13-8!  That's good!  Dogs are 27-20 overall!  IT'S THE YEAR OF THE DOG!  (Note: this probably will not continue, and even if it does, only Bill would be stupid enough to write a column about what a good idea it is to take dogs and then only take dogs 45% of the time.)

So let’s make that one of our 2014 rules: “When in doubt, always, always, ALWAYS take the points.”

I mean, through three weeks, that's actually great advice.  Unfortunately he's been unable to follow it.

Some other rules that I plan on abiding by in 2014 …

Rule: Diligently avoid taking shaky QBs on the road, bad coaches against good coaches, and, especially, bad coaches coaching shaky QBs against good coaches on the road.

WOWIE ZOWIE.  This is groundbreaking strategy, ladies and germs.  No gambler has ever been so bold as to theorize that when a bad QB backed up by a bad coach goes on the road to face a team with a good coach, you might want to gamble on the good team.  IT'S SO CRAZY IT MIGHT WORK.

This year’s group of shaky QBs in no particular order: EJ Manuel–Kyle Orton; Geno Smith; Johnny Football; Jake Locker Unless He Shows Us Something Early; Chad Henne; Ryan Fitzpatrick; Derek Carr–Matt Schaub; Matt Schaub A Second Time; Robert Griffin III (sorry, D.C. fans, but it’s true and you know it); Tony Romo During Any Week In Which He’s Just Had An Epidural; Matt Cassel; Shaun Hill; Carson Palmer; Just About Any Shaky Backup.

Games so far this year that implicated this rule to some extent:

Week 1
BUF at CHI (Bill went with the rule and lost)
JAX at PHI (Bill went against the rule and lost)

Week 2
JAX at WAS (Bill went against the rule and lost)
ARI at NYG (Bill went with the rule and lost)
NYJ at GB (Bill went with the rule and lost)

Week 3
HOU at NYG (Bill went with the rule and lost)
OAK at NE (Bill went with the rule and lost)

I barely need to summarize that data.  It speaks for itself.  The rule was right 2 out of 7 times.  Bill couldn't even track that, because none of these rules matter and they all contradict themselves so fuck everything.  Bill was right 0 out of 7 times.  (Note: I excluded games where the Titans went on the road because Jake Locker had a great Week 1; then again, he's been crappy since.  But I think he reached Showed Us Something Early status by clobbering the not-bad Chiefs at Arrowhead.  I also counted the OAK at NE game even though Derek Carr is mentioned both here and below, since NE is theoretically good at home.  I did not count the OAK at NYJ game because the Jets are terrible.  Bill did pick that one right, but only by going against his rule, which adds to the comedy.  Anyways, why is Carr on both the "I don't trust" and the "I do trust" lists?  Because Bill refuses to be edited, because he is a colossal prick.)

Not on that list for now: Brian Hoyer (I’m a semi-fan); 

Quasi-support.

Josh McCown (I’m a believer); 

You're an idiot.

Kirk Cousins (I’m a fan); 

You're an idiot, as we will see in coming weeks.

Teddy Bridgewater (I’m a HUGE fan); 

You're a HUGE idiot, as we will see in coming weeks.

Blake Bortles or Derek Carr Unless They’re Playing Somewhere Scary Like Seattle (I don’t mind either of them); 

Is Gillette Stadium Somewhere Scary Like Seattle?  Carr covered there.  In any case, he's on the other list too, so fuck you, Bill.

and Jimmy Garoppolo (my son’s first future football hero).

With the way Brady is playing, we just might see him make some starts before the season is over.

Anyways, verdict on this rule: it's dumb, and Bill is dumb.

Rule: Don’t go against Seattle, Denver, New Orleans, Green Bay or New England at home with a spread under 8½.

Games so far this year that implicated this rule:

Week 1
GB at SEA (Bill went with the rule and won)
IND at DEN (Bill went with the rule and lost)

Week 2
(GB and DEN both played home games, but had spreads over 8.5; Bill went against the Broncos and won, and with the Packers and lost)

Week 3
DEN at SEA (Bill went with the rule and won)
(NO and NE both played home games, but had spreads over 8.5; Bill went with the Patriots and lost, and against the Saints and lost)

Well, unless you have an amazing reason on the level of “Sports Illustrated just put Aaron Rodgers on the cover holding 10 black cats while standing under a ladder and posing with his new girlfriend Caroline Wozniacki.”

Verdict on this rule: not enough data yet.  Odds are it's a pretty good rule to follow, which is something a 9 year old with a vague interest in football could have told you.

Rule: Don’t go against the Pats after a loss and/or when they’re getting points.

After the Pats lost to Miami in week 1, they walloped the Vikings in week 2, covering easily.  I'm pretty sure the University of Minnesota could give the Vikings a game this year.

We have a 13-year Belichick-Brady track record at this point. In the situation I just described, they are 97,567-2 against the spread (all numbers approximate).

And then the following week, the Raiders came into Gillette and covered, and damn near forced overtime (having a game tying TD in the final minutes called back for holding, and then throwing an interception that was the receiver's fault a few plays later).  Verdict on this rule: DURRRRRRR BILLY B TOM TERRIFIC GREATRIOTS YAY!  I hope the Pats finish 2-14 and Jimmy Garopollo retires after the season is over.

More later.

Michael Wilbon sounds like an idiot

On Wednesday, Kornheiser and Wilbon were discussing some of the Pro Bowl snubs. Some of this is word for word, other is paraphrasing.

Kornheiser: I like Brett Favre, but I think Pennington probably deserved to go over him.

Wilbon: Forget Pennington; I want to talk about two other guys: Kerry Collins and Matt Cassel. I don't want to hear about QB Rating or TD/INT ratio. They've led their teams. The best record in the league still belongs to Tennessee. Kerry Collins and Matt Cassel belong in the Pro Bowl ahead of Brett Favre.

Surprisingly, Michael Wilbon didn't cry at all last year about Adrain Peterson making the Pro Bowl, despite the Vikings going 8-8 and not making the playoffs.

Kornheiser: By the way, Matt Cassel's record is the same as Brett Favre's this year.

Wilbon: I don't care; he's had a better season than Favre this year.

So apparently stats do matter after you get facialed by Tony Kornheiser.

Korneiser: You see I'd put in Pennington over Favre because Pennington has a +8 TD/INT ratio to Favre's +4.

Wilbon: Would you put in Collins and Cassel?

Kornheiser: Collins: no. Cassel: Maybe.

Wilbon: How?

I know it's hard to believe, Mike, but it seems as if Kornheiser has (perhaps mistakenly) locked onto a rational thought process. Seriously though, what does it say about you when you're getting schooled in logic by Tony Kornheiser.

Kornheiser: You know who I would put in? PHILLIP RIVERS WHO HAS 28 TOUCHDOWN PASSES TO 11 INTERCEPTIONS!

Wilbon: STOP! Stop with the stats. Don't turn yourself into a stat geek. Phillip Rivers' team stinks and he is the leader of the offense. I don't care if he has 100 touchdown passes, he has failed in the clutch.

Whereas Kerry Collins has been decidedly awesome with his 78.7 QB Rating, sandwiching him in between Neckbeard and Tyler the Skeleton Fucker on the QB Rating list. The only thing that matters is the win/loss record, which in no way effected by variables such as the other 52 guys on the team, coaching, officiating, weather, dumb luck.

Yes, lets just throw out all the stats when deciding who goes to the Pro Bowl and just base it off win/loss record (which may or may not be a stat). If only there was some sort of Bowl game that was just the best team from the NFC vs. the best team from the AFC. Man, that'd be Super.

UPDATE:

For those who don't know why I referred to Tyler Thigpen as "Tyler the Skeleton Fucker."

TMTMQR: Minimalist Edition

Finals are still happening (BOO HOO! My life is so hard!), so I don't have a lot of spare time. Thus I will be keeping my commentary to a bare minimum. Hopefully I still get my intended point(s) across. As always, the main idea is that Gregg Easterbrook is an idiot.

In the NFL, by contrast, schedules are uniform and neutral. The much-claimed "parity scheduling" is a myth.

First of all, that link, which goes to a column you wrote, has nothing to do with scheduling. Way to misrepresent your own work. You're an idiot.

Second of all, NFL schedules are not uniform and neutral. Every team in a given division plays two games which are different than the rest of the teams in the division. For example, this year the Broncos got to play the Jaguars and Browns while the Chargers (because they won the division last year) had to play the Steelers and Colts. That's not uniform or neutral. You're an idiot.

On the Pittsburgh-Baltimore ending, it didn't matter whether Santonio Holmes' feet were in the end zone, the question is whether the ball crossed the white line: "A touchdown is the situation in which any part of the ball, legally in possession of a player inbounds, is on, above, or behind an opponent's goal line (plane), provided it is not a touchback." Referee Walt Coleman didn't help things -- in his explanation of the ruling, he seemed to say he thought what mattered was whether the feet were in the end zone. Come on NFL officials, memorize the rulebook! The whole controversy could have been avoided if, as TMQ has been campaigning for, the league would simply put a chip in the football. If NFL footballs contained tiny chips that triggered an electric-eye beam projected along the goal line, we wouldn't have these tedious discussions about whether the ball got in or not.

I already explained why this is a dumb/impractical idea which probably would cause more problems than it solved a few weeks ago. You're still an idiot.

Cheerleader of the Week: Kat of the Seattle Sea Gals, who according to her team bio holds a master's in mental health and works as a mental-health counselor. Also according to her team bio, her hobbies include barefoot water-skiing and trap shooting. Considering the Seahawks and the Huskies, many Washington state sports enthusiasts could use some mental-health counseling. (University of Washington fans, check this announcement of new coach Steve Sarkisian-- the football is way too big for his body.) Here is how a counseling session with Kat might sound:

KAT: So you are planning to attend the Jets at Seahawks game Sunday, even though the Seahawks are 3-11. Does that seem to you to be well-adjusted behavior?

FAN: Well, you'll be there.

KAT: Yes, but I have a professional obligation to dance half-naked in front of 67,000 people.

FAN: And we're glad for that.

KAT: Do you always paint your face blue in the middle of the week?

FAN: No. Sometimes green.

KAT: That dog of yours, the one you painted purple -- that's not a husky. That dog is a Pomeranian.

FAN: What!!!!!

Please do not try to write skits. Ever. You're unfunny.

Stat of the Week No. 3: Detroit became the first NFL team to reach 0-14 in a 16-game season.

The Saints did this in 1980. ESPN presented a graphic showing this about 15 times between Sunday and Monday. You're an idiot. (It has since been corrected. He's still an idiot.)

The big play of Cincinnati's defeat of Washington was a 79-yard screen pass catch-and-run on second-and-19 by maybe-he's-not-a-bust-after-all Cedric Benson. No one touched Benson till he was almost 50 yards downfield, owing to perfect screen blocks by center Eric Ghiaciuc and guard Bobbie Williams.

Benson's yards per carry/yards per game/receiving yards per game by season:

2006- 4.1/43.1/3.6
2007- 3.4/61.3/11.2
2008- 3.1/46.5/16.6

He's still a bust, and you're an idiot.

Re: the fumble return for a touchdown late in the 4th quarter which cost Buffalo a win against the Jets on Sunday:

To top it off, Losman sprinted backward 10 yards and then waved the ball around in one hand before fumbling, instead of just throwing out of bounds. Ye gods. Ay caramba.

He did not sprint backwards 10 yards, he rolled to the right. He was not waving the ball around in one hand when the fumble happened, he was firmly holding it with both hands because he felt the sack coming. Jets S Abram Elam just happened to make a really nice play and knock it away. I wish I had NFL Sunday ticket- I'm willing to bet Gregg's characterization of the vast majority of plays he writes about is completely inaccurate, but I can't verify that because I'm stuck watching regular CBS/FOX coverage.

Sour Overall Performance of the Week: Playing at home, the division-winning Arizona Cardinals rushed for just 43 yards against Minnesota, and scored just one offensive touchdown in a 35-14 loss. Something tells me that because the dome roof was open and it was 54 degrees at kickoff, the Cards considered this "bad weather."

Something tells me Arizona said "Fuck it, we already clinched the division and we're not going to be able to catch Carolina for a first round bye. Let's take it easy on ourselves this week." Of course, there's no way to tell whether my analysis or Gregg's analysis is correct. But keep in mind that he's a pretty big idiot.

Sweet 'N' Sour Play No. 2: St. Louis ran a zany trick play on which wide receiver Dane Looker ended up throwing a pass to quarterback Marc Bulger. That was sweet. This being the Rams, the play only gained 11 yards. That was sour.

I wasn't aware every trick play was supposed to go for a 99 yard touchdown. Nice 11 yard gain, Rams. Losers.

Last week, TMQ noted that although a high school must win five playoff games to reach one of the multiple state championships in the 64-team Texas bracket- "Friday Night Lights" showed a 32-team bracket while the voiceover said the Panthers needed four wins to reach the title game. Now in the most recent episode, Dillon has two playoff victories, and the voiceover says the Panthers "need one more win" to reach the championship game. Wait, that would be possible only with a 16-team bracket! In Dillon, Texas, they're so obsessed with relationship talk and longing glances, they can't keep track of how many games they are required to play.

Holy fucking shit. Are you really still talking about this?

The series is down to its concluding episodes, yet central events remain completely unexplained. Last season, perpetual-senior Lyla Garrity became an evangelical Christian who spent every minute on church matters. This season she is a sex-crazed vixen type; the evangelical life has vanished and is never commented on. Did she undergo a reverse conversion? If you'd been an evangelical then changed your mind, your friends would sometimes mention that. On the show, it's as if her previous personality never existed.

But the real mystery is, where's the baby? At the end of Season 1, Tami Taylor, SuperWife of SuperCoach Eric Taylor, unexpectedly became pregnant. The baby was born in September 2007: The show's episodes are contemporaneous. During the second season, a running concern was adjusting to the baby and arranging child care for the baby. Now it's December 2008, the baby is 15 months old -- and the baby has vanished. Nobody in the Taylor family ever looks after little Grace or even mentions her. Tami Taylor is now principal of Dillon High, so the baby would need to be at a creche or the Taylors would need a nanny. But there's no nanny in their house. The baby is never going back and forth to child care -- indeed, never seen in either of their cars. In the Taylor kitchen, there's no baby stuff -- no rockers, bottles or high-chairs, and parents know that baby stuff totally takes over your life. The baby has vanished, and none of the characters have noticed she's gone.

This is the first TV show in the history of TV shows to encounter continuity issues like this. Completely unprecedented.

Last week in the Senate, it was clear Republicans wanted to shaft the United Auto Workers because the UAW almost always backs Democrats. It was clear, too, that Republicans who think it's fine for upper-crust males in suits to receive millions of dollars for sitting at a Wall Street desk and producing nothing were offended by the notion that factory workers who make tangible products people need should receive $50 an hour in wages and benefits. What's offensive is that all labor does not pay $50 an hour! If all labor paid $50 an hour, poverty would end.

Now, I'm not really going to claim that I know more about economics than Gregg. Adam Smith I am not. But I'm pretty sure paying everyone performing labor $50 an hour wouldn't work. Because, you know, a lot of companies which employ laborers might not be able to afford that.

Tennessee is 12-2, Carolina 11-3, and both have power-rush games, which would seem to bode well for both. But can either pass if the pressure is on? Houston stacked the box, daring the Flaming Thumbtacks to throw, and Kerry Collins had a bland game -- no touchdowns for the Titans.

Chicago, which has a better defense than Houston, also stacked the box against the Titans. The Bears held them to 20 yards rushing. Collins was 30 for 41 for 289 yards and Tennessee won. Doesn't disprove what Gregg is saying, but is worth noting.

The Titans also failed to convert a critical third-and-1, when LenDale White was stuffed for a loss.

This establishes nothing. Albert Pujols also struck out this one time. You're an idiot.

As for Carolina, overall they have only outgained opponents by 351 yards on the season, and starter Jake Delhomme has an 82 passer rating. The Panthers plod a lot on offense, then occasionally break a big play -- they lead the league in 40-plus-yard rushing plays and are second in 20-plus runs. Long runs are good, obviously, but does Carolina have the offensive balance to face a premium club in a pressure situation?

Only teams which consistently pick up exactly 4 yards per play can win in the playoffs. The rules change then, and teams are no longer allowed to break off long plays.

The Cats are 4-3 against teams with winning records.

The Giants are 5-2. The Steelers are 4-3. The Colts are 4-2. The Titans are 4-1. That stat sucks. And you are an idiot.

Adventures in Officiating: Officials deny they employ the makeup call -- but why not use makeup calls? If the zebras know they made an error in one team's favor, promptly making an equivalent error in the other team's favor has never sounded bad to me.

That's because you're an idiot. What a horrendous idea. I don't have time to explain why- the potential disasters this idea could lead to should be pretty apparent.

Reader John Walker reports that an estate trust established by Frank Doble, an electrical engineer who attended Tufts University and later was on the board of Lesley University, was dissolved last spring and the value ($272 million) evenly divided between the schools. Tufts is well-known but you've probably never heard of Lesley. The latter college's endowment was trebled by Doble's wonderful gift, making Lesley's future bright.

Using "trebled" instead of "tripled" makes you a grade "A" pretentious zilch.

But if Oklahoma beats Florida and Texas beats Ohio State in the Fiesta, my money will be on Texas as national champion. In that scenario, Oklahoma and Texas would be tied at 12-1, would have played nearly identical schedules, and Texas would have beaten Oklahoma head-to-head. How can Texas not be No. 1? You'd best believe the BCS organizers are hoping this scenario does not come to pass, because if it does and the BCS says Oklahoma is No. 1, the BCS will be roundly denounced yet again.

Good idea- in spite of Oklahoma beating an extremely impressive Florida team, let's give Texas the title after they beat a relatively shitty Ohio State team. Hey, after USC clobbers Penn State, why not give the title to them? You're an idiot.

Voorwerp Update: A few months ago TMQ noted that cosmologists could not explain the Voorwerp, a mysterious glowing deep-space cloud discovered by a Dutch schoolteacher. Reader Neal Gilbert of Grand Rapids, Mich., reports the science world now has a theory -- something about black holes and heated gases. Yeah, yeah. Astronomers don't want to be shown up by a Dutch schoolteacher, so they are pretending they know what the thing is.

Clearly, you know more about astronomy than professional astronomers. And you know for a fact that their explanation is purely a function of them trying not to be shown up, and not at all the result of effective research. You're an asshole.

Next Week: The Dillon Panthers score a final-play winning touchdown from outside the stadium.

Last line in the whole column, and the only one I actually enjoyed.

You're still an unfunny idiot though.

Peter King: Fat, Oblivious

So, there you are tubby. You look like a bucket of lard on a bad day. You baby gorilla. Why don't you work a zoo, and stop bothering people.

Kerry Collins is back, and he's not going anywhere. I don't know how many quarterbacks in the NFL today can go on the road, play the most fearsome defense in football, take a mugging for three-and-a-half quarters, then drive his team 80 yards in 11 plays to win the game. How many, really? Four? Five? I don't know.

That's right, you don't know. Much like anything that's not related to Denny's Grand Slam menu, you're totally clueless. Here's a little bit of information: Joe Flacco was having a terrible day against Pittsburgh last week, then led an 80 yard TD drive at the end of the 4th quarter. Does that make him one of the four or five best QBs in the league? No, no, no, no, and no.

Also, Flacco and Collins stats from Sunday:

Collins: 17/32, 163 yds, 1 td, 2 int
Flacco: 18/27, 153 yds, 0 td, 2 int

Kerry Collins: HOF Class 20??

The Giants are a pretty deep team. What must Plaxico Burress have been thinking in Miami or New Jersey, if he had his TV on Sunday? There was his sub, Domenik Hixon, rushing and receiving for more than 100 yards in the first half against Seattle before going out with a slight concussion, and there were the Giants, crushing the Seahawks 44-6, with their best receiver serving a one-game suspension.

My guess is he was thinking, "Shit, I could've padded my stats to a ridiculous degree against this embarrassing excuse for a football team. Holy shit, look at that white guy in the secondary! FUCK!"

Seriously, is Peter King really that dumb that he can't deduce the following:

IF Team A has an epically bad defense
AND Team B has an above average offense
THEN it doesn't mean shit that the Giants scored 44 points against the Seahawks without Burress

The Fine Fifteen

1. New York Giants (4-0). This is not only a defensively intimidating team and offensively efficient team, but also a very deep team. Tom Coughlin suspends his best receiver for a game, and his plug-in guy, Domenik Hixon, probably the fifth receiver coming out of training camp, outgains Seattle 117-115 and out-touchdowns the Seahawks 1-0 in the first half.

This is a commentary on the Seahawks, not the Giants, you dumb fuck.

2. Tennessee (5-0). Best game by a quarterback with a 52.0 passer rating in a long, long time.

No, it was a shitty game by a guy who had a 52.0 passer rating, but his team managed to win in spite of him.

4. Pittsburgh (4-1). No team in the history of NFL byes needs a bye like the Steelers right now.

Wait, the Steelers have injuries to important players? That has literally never happened to an NFL team before. I also literally shit my pants when I read that last sentence.

9. Baltimore (2-2). Joe Flacco's quite a bright prospect. Joe Flacco worries the heck out of me.

Me: Hey Peter, do you think I should go to the beach today?
PK: Yeah, go for it. The beach is a lot of fun.
Me: Great, I'll go get--
PK: But the beach can also be really boring and not fun.
Me: Uh...thanks, brah.

c. I've nailed you a few times, Warren Sapp,

PROBABLY NOT THE ONLY NFL PLAYER UV NAILED, LOLZ!!1

h. Kyle Orton looks more and more like the answer for Chicago, at least temporarily.

So, in other words, he may or may not be the answer. You see, that's Peter King using his access to tell you things that you, the average slack jawed American, could never figure out.

4. I think this is what I didn't like about Week 5:

b. In Wisconsin, at 1:05 p.m. local time Sunday afternoon, the Brewers were down 5-0 and the Packers down 17-7.

20 years from now, we'll all be able to tell our kids where we were at 1:05 pm on Sunday October 5, 2008.

f. This isn't Delaware, Joe Flacco. The strength of your arm won't get the ball through defenders. They'll catch it here.

I get it Flacco sucked. He's not that great right now. Might not ever be. But he threw the exact same number of picks as your new man hero, Kerry Collins, so please at least be consistent, you fucking asshat.

b. One other dumb playoff baseball thing: During the White Sox-Rays opening game, TBS showed 2008 fights between the Rays and Yanks, then the Rays and Red Sox, and Harold Reynolds said this sent a signal that the Rays wouldn't be pushed around by the power teams of their division anymore. Presto! Division title. What crappola. The Rays have been fighting for years. They brawled with the Sox in 2000 and finished 69-92. They brawled with the Sox in 2004 and finished 70-91. They brawled with the Sox in 2005 and finished 67-95. If you're going to use clichés, at least make them true.

The irony is too much.

g. First two games of the BoSox-Angels series ended at 1:25 and 1:29 a.m., respectively. There's some East Coast love.

Angels season ticket holders should be required to skip work to accommodate Peter King, et all East Coast baseball fans.

i. You're the smart one, Bill Plaschke. You recognize Manny Ramirez quit on a great team once, and he'll do it again. In the first three innings Saturday night, Ramirez scored from first on a hard double to right, then tagged up at first base and went to second on a medium-deep fly to center field. I can guarantee you that in eight years in Boston he didn't do those two things in one season, never mind twice in one three-inning stretch.

Looking at game logs will no doubt prove Peter King right. Don't bother questioning the legitimacy of his claim.

l. Finally got to see the premiere of Family Guy, and if I had to pick, I'm not sure which TV character I'd chose as the best in history -- George Costanza, Barney Fife, James West or Brian the dog. Brian's quite a maverick.

Yep, that's the reason Brian is funny...because he is a maverick. Look out Dean of Cinema and Telvision Studies at USC, this guy's gonna eat your lunch...LITERALLY!