Wednesday, November 21, 2012

Bill Simmons: Master of cause and effect

This is long, and if you have a brain, you'll realize what's idiotic about it after the first sentence of Bill's response, but I'm pasting the whole thing just so you can enjoy Bill's amazing powers of deduction in full.

Q: I know you love these, so here's a great NFL what if: What if Andrew Luck came out after his junior year? If he comes out in 2011, Carolina takes him first and Denver takes Cam second (missing out on Von Miller, and one year later, Peyton Manning). In the 2012 Draft, Indy is then faced with either picking RG III or keeping Manning (and trading the pick), If they choose RG III, Washington misses out on Black Jesus. That's 4 franchises who had their course of history changed dramatically.
—Dan, Denver

SG: And you left out Von Miller (who jumped a level and became the league's most destructive pass rusher this season) going third in 2011 to … (wait for it) … Buffalo! So that's five franchises affected. In that same draft, Miller bumps Marcel Dareus down a pick, so who knows if Cincy passes up A.J. Green for him at no. 4, or if Arizona passes up Patrick Peterson for him at no. 5. (That's seven franchises affected.) And maybe Cleveland just picks the leftover guy (either Dareus, Green or Peterson) at no. 6 instead of trading down to Atlanta (who picked Julio Jones at no. 6), and maybe San Francisco picks Jones at no. 7 instead of Aldon Smith (now we're up to 10 affected franchises), or maybe San Francisco picks Smith, then Tennessee grabs Jones at no. 8 instead of Jake Locker (now my head is starting to hurt). Let's at least agree that 2011's top 10 unfolds differently, with three major chess pieces for 2012 contenders (Miller, Jones and Smith) possibly landing elsewhere.

Also, Denver never would have traded for Manning this spring if they already had Cam, which means Manning lands in either Arizona or San Francisco. (Hold on, we have to wait for Larry Fitzgerald to stop wailing.) For all we know, Manning could be throwing bombs to Julio Jones on an undefeated Niners team right now. So that's a great "What If" by Dan from Denver — and he didn't even mention Luck's fourth Stanford year inadvertently making the 2012 Cardinals eligible for the Ewing Theory, leading to last weekend's shocking upset over Oregon and our eventual Notre Dame–Alabama national championship game (13 teams affected). Amazing.

So what you're saying is.... if an elite, top of the first round college QB... were to be drafted in a different year than the one in which he was originally drafted, by a different team... you can imagine lots of other picks in those two drafts also changing?

/mind asplode


John Elbuey said...

What you don't seem to get, Lar, is that only a true genius like Bill with the help of his alter ego Dan could construct such a brilliant, meaningless what if scenario. Bill is close to former NFL GM Mike Lombardi and could easily be an NBA and an NFL GM himself. Yes, he is that awesome.

I thought I had posted another version of this but it hasn't shown up. So I will risk ridicule and post it again using a clever nom de plume.

Snarf said...

While these 'what-ifs' don't truly matter, it's generally preferable for those doing them to get the actual facts of their scenarios correct. Denver didn't trade for Manning, he was a free agent.

snaggletooth said...

Definitely another superb blog! Dr. Osterman looks like a real fan of great sportswriting and expensive sportscars.

Anonymous said...

I learned what asplode means thanks to you Larry B, thanks. I also learned that I will need glasses to read the robot proofing text, thanks.

Larry B said...

Thanks Anon, I'm in my late 20s but like to keep up with the lingo of teh youthz.

Daniel bird, you are BLOCKED BLOCKED

Chris W said...



ivn said...

at least Simmons was finally corrected about his asinine theory that Derrick Rose could return from knee surgery as quickly as Peterson did because "THEY'RE BOTH HARD-WORKING GUYS. I'VE WATCHED THEM BOTH WALK DOWN A HALLWAY AND THEY LOOK LIKE GREAT ATHLETES. ADAM CAROLLA AGREES WITH ME YOU GUYS."

Anonymous said...

I've never asked you for anything before Larry B, but America needs you now more than ever.

Mother said...

Anonymous, please let Larry be. He has visions of sugarplums and Bronco playoff wins dancing in his head.

Larry B said...

Best comment thread this blog has seen in like 2 years. I now wish I hadn't deleted the spammer guy.

Anonymous, I will see what I can do.