Jeff Pearlman: King of Lazy Analysis

This is just lazy writing. Really, really lazy writing. I probably put more effort into these three intro sentences than Jeff put into his whole column.

Yes, Jason Bay is going to be big in New York-

Oh yeah? He is?

a big bust, that is

Oh wow. WHAT A HEADLINE. Absolute facial. You've been figuratively dunked on by Jeff Pearlman, Jason.

The statement came 28 years ago.

In the winter of 1981-82, the New York Mets were Big Apple nobodies -- a star-less, charisma-less franchise coming off of a miserable 41-62 strike-shortened season. The team had drawn 704,244 fans, seventh in the National League (and not even half the total of the cross-town Yankees), and its marketing exclamation, "The magic is back!" rang hollow. Unless Joel Youngblood and Pete Falcone possessed some sort of secret, Houdini-esque abilities, the magic was not back. It was, in fact, dead.

I fucking hate it when Gen-X sportswriters needlessly drop the names of irrelevant players from days gone by. We get it, Jeff. You followed the Mets back then, so you can name two of their completely unremarkable players. If I'm a sportswriter 20 years from now, which I won't be, you all have free license to slug me in the face if I lead off a column with "It was 2007, and the Colorado Rockies were making an incredible run at the playoffs on the backs of guys like Jamey Carroll and Josh Fogg."

With this as a backdrop, Frank Cashen, the team's general manager, pulled off a headline-stealing deal. In exchange for three middling players, Cashen landed slugging outfielder George Foster from the Cincinnati Reds, immediately signing him to a five-year, $10 million contract.

Did Cashen think the former National League MVP was the missing piece that New York needed to turn itself into a winner? Hardly. While the Mets offense was nothing to brag about, it was the club's rotten starting rotation and lowly middle infield that required the most attention. "But signing George was a message to baseball and to our fans that we were in it to win," Cashen said. "From here on out, we would do whatever it takes."

Mets wins in the 4 years prior to that crappy strike-shortened season: 64, 66, 63, 67. Mets wins in the 5 years prior to the Bay sigining: 83, 97, 88, 89, 70. So while Foster might have been a "we're dedicated to winning!" signing, there is no way you could possibly under any circumstances make the same argument about Bay. And this is just the first of many times Jeff will try to make a comparison that simply isn't there. Because he's lazy. A lazy idiot.

The outcome: Foster hit 13 home runs in his first season in New York. He played an abysmal left field, was booed mercilessly, shunned in his own clubhouse and -- even as he went on to spend 3½ more decent seasons with the Mets -- labeled one of the biggest busts in the team's history. By the time the team won the 1986 World Series, he was out of baseball.

Oh no!

Why? Because George Foster was a bad fit.

It sounds more like his skill set was declining at the time he was signed (he was 33; Bay is 31), and kind of an asshole to boot (no one has ever said that about Bay).

As we approach 2010, New York Mets history is about to repeat itself. According to WFAN, the team has agreed to sign Jason Bay to a four-year contract worth nearly $66 million. Like Foster 28 years back, Bay is in his early 30s.

He is two years younger. It matters. A lot.

Like Foster 28 years back, Bay will play left field and bat in the middle of the order.

IT'S ALL LINING UP TOO PERFECTLY!!!

Like Foster 28 years back, Bay will arrive in Queens accompanied by enough hype and hope to fill three stadiums.

Like Foster 28 years back, this will not go well.

Jason Bay is a good ballplayer. A fine ballplayer. Heck, an excellent ballplayer. With Boston last year, residing in cozy Fenway Park,

Know how long it took me to find this? Ten seconds. Turns out, Citi was actually a better HR park than Fenway last year. In fact Fenway has historically been a pretty bad HR park. Of course, Citi might be rougher on pull-hitting righties like Bay than Fenway is since the GREEN FACKIN' MONSTAH, MOST LEGENDAHRY WALL IN THE HISTAHRY OF WALLS can occasionally function as a short porch. (Of course, it can also turn balls that would be HRs anywhere else into doubles.) But at least acknowledge the issue, you know? To be fair, Fenway was the best doubles park in the whole league while Citi was 19th. But Jeff's about to give you Bay's HR total from last year.

the 31-year-old All-Star hit 36 home runs with 119 RBIs, thus making him the pulse of an otherwise aging Red Sox lineup. He has cleared 30 home runs in four of his last five seasons. Bay also happens to be one of the game's truly good guys -- likeable, agreeable, approachable, laid-back. The complete package.

So... not at all like Foster.

Yet for all the positives Bay brings to an organization, he lacks the one tool that the Mets truly need -- an ability to move walls.

When New York's brain-dead powers-that-be decided that Citi Field should feature spacious outfield grass and power alleys from here to Hagåtña, they unintentionally dictated the type of team that GM Omar Manaya is required to assemble.

Even if this is true, how does it make them braindead? They have to make either a pitchers' park, a hitter's park, or a neutral park. They have to choose one. As you'll read, Jeff provides nothing to help us understand why he considers them dumb for having chosen to make a pitchers' park.

Namely, the modern-day Mets must replicate the '85 Cardinals, who were constructed around speed and pitching; around doubles and triples into the gaps;

Like I just said, Citi was good for HRs and bad for doubles last year. It happened to be very good for triples, even better than it was for HRs, but who builds a team around triples? True, the Mets needed more pitching. They also needed some pop in their lineup. Jeff will make that point for me shortly.

around shutouts and 2-1 wins. In Flushing, the signature has to be run generation -- Jose Reyes leading off with a single, stealing second, stealing third, being brought home via a sac fly.

He can still do that with Bay in the lineup. He can also single and come home on a Bay home run. Also, building a team around sac flies is dumber than building a team around triples.

The Mets need men who take lots of pitches and work deep into counts;

Bay's career OBP: .376. Must be one hell of a talented free swinger to put up that number without taking lots of pitches!

who can hit to the opposite field and run like Miguel Dilone.

Ah, who could forget ol' Miguel Dilone and his 267 career SBs, putting him in 194th on the all-time list? Thanks for bringing him up, Jeff! Also, they already have two guys who hit to the opposite field and can run fast (even if they're desperately trying to trade one of them).

Sluggers? What sluggers? Playing in Shea Stadium in 2008, David Wright was a power monster, producing 33 homers and 124 RBIs. Playing in Citi Field in 2009, Wright was, well, George Foster circa 1982, with a paltry 10 homers and 72 RBIs. Or, to put it more bluntly, the Mets' leading home run hitter last season was Daniel Murphy -- with 12.

Talking about how the Mets had no significant power threats in their lineup last year does not very well convince me that they shouldn't have signed Bay.

If Bay has an absolutely outstanding 2010, he might hit 25 homers. He might.

If he stays healthy, I'm somewhat certain he'll hit more than 25. He'll also have a good OBP and hit plenty of doubles... and maybe even some triples too! Playing in a pitchers' park doesn't mean you don't sign good hitters.

In their new digs, the Mets also require arms. Lots and lots of arms. They require starters who can hold a game close -- guys like John Lackey; guys like Javier Vazquez; guys... whom the Mets completely ignored as others pounced.

Yeah, they screwed up a little bit there. Should have made some better moves on SPs. I doubt they "completely ignored" Lackey, though, and I highly doubt the division rival Braves would have sent them Vazquez. In any case, even when you need pitching and don't get it, that doesn't mean you ignore good hitters.

No doubt those Met fans who had been waiting for their team to make a statement will be pleased.

If those fans wanted the team to "make a statement" because the fans don't think the team is dedicated to wins, those fans are fucking tards who should be sterilized. The team has had a top 5 payroll for the last several years.

Bay, like Foster, is a big name with big power and big skills.

He's also two years younger, a much better OBP guy, not obviously on the down side of his career like Foster was, and not an asshole who will be hated in the clubhouse.

He will also be a big bust.

You are a lazy writer, who will almost certainly be wrong. Just like you've been wrong before.