Tuesday, July 10, 2007

How to Make Power Rankings Worse

- A report by John Donovan

John Donovan's a curious character. He's well aware of Fire Joe Morgan, and has even stated in this column that he's afraid to write anything that might get ripped apart there.

There's more than one FJM you have to worry about, John, especially when you make several ignorant selections for "Team MVP"s

Most of these aren't bad. But there are quite a few awful, awful selections.

GM Ned Colletti is still talking trades -- a starter, maybe a reliever and always that ever-elusive power bat -- but the Dodgers, thanks to their pitching, are in the N.L. West race anyway. Catcher Russell Martin leads L.A. in the Triple Crown categories (.306, 11, 60), but the other youngsters (Matt Kemp, James Loney) will make or break this team.

First-half MVP: Closer Takashi Saito (1.47 ERA, 23 saves) has been money in the bank.


I'm very sorry to everyone who wanted this to get funnier as the time went along, but the most wrong selection is also the first wrong selection. When I read this, I almost fell out of my chair, so excuse me for a second as I get this out of my system.

WRONG! WRONG! WRONG! WRONG! WRONG! WRONG! WRONG! WRONG! WRONG! WRONG! WRONG! WRONG! WRONG! WRONG! WRONG! WRONG! WRONG! WRONG! WRONG! WRONG! WRONG! WRONG! WRONG! WRONG! WRONG! WRONG! WRONG! WRONG! WRONG! WRONG! WRONG! WRONG! WRONG! WRONG! WRONG! WRONG! WRONG! WRONG! WRONG! WRONG!

Okay, there we go. Now let's take a look back at what you just wrote. Russell Martin leads the team in triple crown categories. He's easily been the best hitting catcher in the National League. Takashi Saito is a pitcher that has thrown 36.2 innings this year. I don't care that most of them were in the 9th inning. Runs in the 1st inning count for just as much. Saito has been a very good closer, but his VORP is about HALF of Martin's.....it's 16.8 for Saito and 32.1 for Martin. Not even fucking close.

And Martin's not even the team's best candidate.

What about this guy?

Sporting a happy little VORP of 41.7 and a 2.39 ERA over 116.2 innings, he's your Dodger MVP. I'm sorry to all you closer apologists out there, but a great starter is way more valuable than a great closer. Being great over 36.2 innings is nowhere near as difficult as being great over three times that many.

New York Mets

First-half MVP: Hitting just .239 on May 6, David Wright is hitting .321 since.


Despite your awful reason, I have to give you props for not giving into the nationwide mancrush on Jose Reyes. It's a very close call. Wright has actually been the better hitter this year by EqA. Reyes's position gives him the edge in VORP. This one depends on what you're looking for really in an MVP. I just applaud someone's ability to think in a different direction. You can tell Donovan doesn't work for ESPN here.

At 43-44, the Jays are under .500 at the break for the first time since '04. And they're facing a monstrous eight-game road trip to Boston and New York to start the second half, too. Enjoy the time off, gentlemen.

First-half MVP: Where would the Jays be without Canadian Matt Stairs (.900+ OPS).


Oh good. We're back to Donovan doesn't watch baseball mode.

Yeah. Stairs has a great OPS. The lift he has provided for the Blue Jays has been very helpful and unexpected. But the only reason he started getting major playing time was because Lyle Overbay got hurt. You knew that, right? Stairs didn't even reach the 200 AB mark in the first half! I'm sorry Johnny, but you can't just look at one line of the stat book and pick the top guy. This one's all Alex Rios. VORP: 26.9 vs 14.5 for Stairs.

New York Yankees

Wanna guess? OK, it's Alex Rodriguez (hitting .542 in the ninth inning).


Great reason there, dude. Just simply awesome. Pick a very small sample size of his hitting, pretend every time he batted in the 9th inning it was in the "clutch" and just go with it. Like, that's the worst attempt I've ever seen at pointing out someone's clutch performance. Batting average in the 9th inning. He's obviously been good in late-game situations this year....ESPN's "close and late" situation has him at .326/.388/.721. When a guy like A-Rod has been mashing all-around, this is a completely stupid angle to take anyway.

Kansas City Royals

The Royals are definitely improving -- they're 38-50. They were 31-56 at the break in '06. Alex Gordon is hitting. Billy Butler, too. Smile, K.C.

First-half MVP: Catcher John Buck (15 HRs) could have been this team's All-Star rep.


Let the pukefest continue. John Buck was, in fact, a better hitter per plate appearance than A-Rod for the first two weeks of the season when A-Rod was tearing the cover off of the ball. And he's had himself a very nice season so far. But he, like Stairs, hasn't reached the 200 AB plateau. That's because he only catches three of the 5 Kansas City starters (it's sad that he's still the 2nd highest in VORP among position players for KC despite this). Sorry Donovan, the players and managers got it right with Meche (24.5 vs 15.5 VORP)

Also, in what universe could Buck have been an All-Star rep? You want 4 catchers on the team, or do you think that's he's been better than reserves Posada and Martinez?

Texas Rangers

Talk about leaps forward. Texas is 15-8 since mid-June and 6-0-1 in their last seven series.

First-half MVP: He hasn't had many chances for saves -- and may not get many more with this team -- but Eric Gagne (1.37 ERA) is back.


At least you picked the best pitcher on the team this time (Texas's top 5 pitchers by VORP, an accumulating stat, all have under 50 IP. How absolutely sad.). Teixeira has been significantly more valuable at .302/.405/.554, VORP edge of 24.2 to Gagne's 14.0

There's more ways to be dumb than to emphasize grit and hustle, Johnny boy.

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