tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6300012139741038635.post3508650856690116750..comments2024-02-16T02:12:08.305-08:00Comments on Fire Jay Mariotti: The Phillies Will Pay Ryan Howard $25 MM Per Year During His Age 34, 35, and 36 SeasonsLarry Bhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16141943214237719821noreply@blogger.comBlogger19125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6300012139741038635.post-91936208733197694232014-08-26T10:02:58.941-07:002014-08-26T10:02:58.941-07:00Oh god this is just fantastic in hindsightOh god this is just fantastic in hindsightFrigidevilnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6300012139741038635.post-7366561017583661692010-05-10T07:36:53.057-07:002010-05-10T07:36:53.057-07:00In re: Citizens Bank Park
CBP is not a "joke...In re: Citizens Bank Park<br /><br />CBP is not a "joke from foul pole to foul pole." Its park factor for runs last year was .999 (almost exactly neutral), placing it 13th out of 30 teams. Its park factor for HRs was 1.167, good for 11th out of 30.<br /><br />The "CBP is a bandbox" meme is one that needs to die. The Phillies' lineup is built to hit a lot of HRs wherever the team plays - and most players on the team show pretty even home/road HR splits by the end of the year. Ryan Howard would hit 40+ homers in all but the most extreme pitchers' parks, and even there he'd be well over 30.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08858477008623989721noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6300012139741038635.post-76504998941666821542010-05-05T10:11:28.747-07:002010-05-05T10:11:28.747-07:00"The point is that you are part of an increas..."The point is that you are part of an increasingly obnoxious segment of statheads who use stats not to better inform the unanswerable questions of baseball but rather to use as artillery in trying to make other people stupid."<br /><br />"But to say he's "probably 30 or lower" is just a little bit silly considering the guy's put up a 144 OPS+ the last four years with more or less adequate baserunning and defense"<br /><br />Sorry to interrupt you there while you're using those stats to "better inform the unanswerable questions of baseball" (and boy, do those questions need informing!). I was under the false ::cough:: impression that you were only using those stats to "make me stupid". It's a good thing you took the high road, and weren't doing the exact same thing that I was.Derpsaucehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08881690667013390019noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6300012139741038635.post-50442862005024999082010-05-05T08:46:44.390-07:002010-05-05T08:46:44.390-07:00Are you guys married?
Those guys Heyman mentioned...Are you guys married?<br /><br />Those guys Heyman mentioned also racked up a rediculous number of plate appearances.<br /><br />Hank Aaron 13,940 (3rd) 23 seasons<br />Babe Ruth 10,617 (42nd) 22 seasons<br />Lou Gehrig 9,660 (97th) 17 seasons<br />Stan Musial 12,712 (8th) 22 seasons<br /><br />Chances that Ryan Howard even makes it to 8,000 PA: very slim.Adamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05117565553215414852noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6300012139741038635.post-75580923089815276282010-05-05T08:24:15.643-07:002010-05-05T08:24:15.643-07:00CRIPPLE FIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIGHTCRIPPLE FIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIGHTLarry Bhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16141943214237719821noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6300012139741038635.post-24349279771675547232010-05-05T07:16:47.594-07:002010-05-05T07:16:47.594-07:00Yeah, but you're the one telling Larry he'...Yeah, but you're the one telling Larry he's wrong. I'm not saying you're wrong, just that in trying to be argumentative about Howard, you're making statements that shift the goalposts around so they fit whatever you do.<br /><br />The point is that you are part of an increasingly obnoxious segment of statheads who use stats not to better inform the unanswerable questions of baseball but rather to use as artillery in trying to make other people stupid.<br /><br />You jumped in to try to make a smarmy point about Howard, one largely unsubstantiated by evidence complete with a hyperbolic "He's top 30 AT BEST" statement. Then when evidence suggesting that might be a bit much comes in (i.e. mine) you move the goalposts and explain why 2006 didn't count.<br /><br />Just fucking typical, dude.Chris Whttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12152452626681072765noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6300012139741038635.post-27878841371860114432010-05-04T23:22:11.745-07:002010-05-04T23:22:11.745-07:00"Ugh. This is why I was loath to even post th..."Ugh. This is why I was loath to even post that. Because Pnoles made his decision what kind of player Howard is and therefore only stats that support that conclusion are relevant."<br /><br />Yep. You did something totally different, by the way. Good job. <br /><br />I must have missed all that statistical evidence you so nobly provided against your own position. You cherry-picked stats (specifically, years, by including 2006, which is the only one that remotely supports your point) for the sake of disagreeing with me, and glossed over the fact that there are definitely a lot of pitchers that reduce his ranking among players overall.Derpsaucehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08881690667013390019noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6300012139741038635.post-57822439637290191862010-05-04T22:17:32.007-07:002010-05-04T22:17:32.007-07:00Ugh. This is why I was loath to even post that. Be...Ugh. This is why I was loath to even post that. Because Pnoles made his decision what kind of player Howard is and therefore only stats that support that conclusion are relevant.<br /><br />For the record I hate Howard. Think the way he plays is completely unenjoyable and that he's totally overrated by writers which is obnoxious.<br /><br />But that doesn't mean only the stats I want to use are relevant. Let's try to live in the middleground not in the "Howard is at BEST a top 30 player" groundChris Whttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12152452626681072765noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6300012139741038635.post-85060108969867454552010-05-04T20:47:49.949-07:002010-05-04T20:47:49.949-07:00Very convenient, including 2006, which he hasn'...Very convenient, including 2006, which he hasn't come all that close to matching in any other year of his career. Let's live in the present a little bit, shall we?<br /><br />2006: 7.1 WARP<br />2007: 5.1 WARP<br />2008: 3.7 WARP<br />2009: 4.8 WARP<br /><br />The last 3 (more relevant) totals are good, not great. 2006-guy is gone, and he's not coming back....especially not on this side of 30. If you think he's going to hit .313 again, by all means, use it.<br /><br />And there are a lot of very valuable pitchers (more than you understand if you think that there's only 3-8 more pitchers more valuable than Ryan Howard).<br /><br />If you're conceding he might be 25th or so, and I'm saying he's 30th or so, why are you even bickering? Is that this massive a difference? Am I really that "silly" to suggest that he's only the 30th best player?<br /><br />Let's continue. Rankings by WARP3 the last 4 seasons (I'll give you 2006, since you seem to care about it so much)<br /><br />2006: 10th<br />2007: 55th<br />2008: 116th<br />2009: 69th<br /><br />Top. 25. My. Ass.Derpsaucehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08881690667013390019noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6300012139741038635.post-3812999880366121662010-05-04T08:44:30.287-07:002010-05-04T08:44:30.287-07:00Also: from http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/02/sport...Also: from http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/02/sports/baseball/02score.html<br /><br />According to FanGraphs.com, the Phillies have won 19.2 more games with Howard since 2006 than they would have with a minimum-salary journeyman at his position. That makes him the 17th-most-valuable nonpitcher during that stretch, just below his positional peers Miguel Cabrera, Lance Berkman and Teixeira, and just above his teammate Jimmy Rollins. <br /><br />So, basically, to say: "[Ryan Howard is] probably like the 30th (or lower) most valuable player in baseball" seems to me to exemplify precisely why (in my mind) Ryan Howard is properly rated. Yes, he's overrated largely by writers and people who think RBI is the bottom line of production. But much like Jeter, reactionary guys who are annoyed by bad sportswriters tend to use excessively hyperbolic statements based on whatever numbers they cherry pick to support their predetermined conclusion.<br /><br />Howard is probably a top 20 player. Maybe he's only top 25. But to say he's "probably 30 or lower" is just a little bit silly considering the guy's put up a 144 OPS+ the last four years with more or less adequate baserunning and defenseChris Whttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12152452626681072765noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6300012139741038635.post-75755061106183289862010-05-04T01:14:14.328-07:002010-05-04T01:14:14.328-07:00I wonder if Heyman gave Bartolo Colon a Cy Young v...I wonder if Heyman gave Bartolo Colon a Cy Young vote in '05. That's got to be the worst major baseball award since Pudge Rodriguez' MVP in '99.JohnFhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09339402431610031589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6300012139741038635.post-33168323955760442722010-05-03T22:13:45.102-07:002010-05-03T22:13:45.102-07:00We're kind of on the same page... but I'm ...We're kind of on the same page... but I'm sure Howard is a top 20 player, maybe even a top 15.Larry Bhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16141943214237719821noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6300012139741038635.post-55811942279418555632010-05-03T17:32:38.603-07:002010-05-03T17:32:38.603-07:00I'm very glad to see that this got up here, La...I'm very glad to see that this got up here, Larry, good show.<br /><br />One point of debate: Ryan Howard is not properly rated. He's absolutely overrated (I'd argue most overrated player in baseball if the aforementioned Rollins didn't exist). He's not overrated by you or me, or anyone else who understands things, but when you finish "first, fifth, second and third in MVP voting the last four years.", and you're probably like the 30th (or lower) most valuable player in baseball, you are absolutely an overrated baseball player. Heyman might be the only writer I've seen to praise this deal, but he's certainly not the only one who got Howard the hardware (or close to it) these past few years. Check out the VORP difference between Pujols and Howard when Howard finished second. Hilarious.Derpsaucehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08881690667013390019noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6300012139741038635.post-46841345166456843902010-05-03T15:59:06.841-07:002010-05-03T15:59:06.841-07:00I agree with you, Larry, though I had to think abo...I agree with you, Larry, though I had to think about it for a few minutes. My main reasoning is OPS.<br /><br />Home run hitters strike out a lot. That's just a fact of life. So, when you look at OPS, it can tell you whether or not they're making up for the strikeouts with walks or other ways of getting on base (naturally OPS doesn't tell you about the productive outs that Larry was talking about, but I think walks are better to compare with strikeouts than sac flies or RBI ground-outs.)<br /><br />So far this season, Paul Konerko is the OPS leader (partly due to his lead on HRs too) with a beastly 1.206 mark. So far, Konerko has struck out a total of 9 times and walked 17 times. Look through the stats and you can see that the OPS leaders strike out less and walk more. Conversely, only two people in the top 50 strikeout leaders have an OPS over 1.0.<br /><br />I know that April and a few days of May are a pretty small sample size, so I went back to the 2009 season as well. The BB:K ratio wasn't as drastic in the entire season, but for those who led the league in OPS, the average was roughly 7 walks per 10 strikeouts. On the other hand, only one player who had more than 100 strikeouts on the "leader" board had more than 100 walks, and that was Prince Fielder.<br /><br />If you look at the numbers, it's easy to see that it's OK if you strike out 25% of the time, as long as you're drawing enough walks.<br /><br />You can't score if you can't get on base, and no single out is less productive than a strikeout.<br /><br />Also, this blog is more mediocre than shitty. (I kid!)Elliotnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6300012139741038635.post-53305797930929600342010-05-03T15:40:09.618-07:002010-05-03T15:40:09.618-07:00I didn't say that they were just like any out,...I didn't say that they were just like any out, but the consensus amongst the sabermetric crowd is that by and large, they're not much worse. I think strikeouts are bad when they're paired with a low OBP, because a patient hitter (like Dunn) will strike out a lot since he is going to see a lot of pitches, but also takes a lot of walks.<br /><br />I think that the "benefit" of avoiding a DP is balanced out by the benefit of putting a ball in play (runners can score on ground outs or fly outs, fielders can make errors, etc). I'm still impressed by a guy who can avoid strikeouts, especially a Pujols, who does that while still maintaining a good walk rate and power.Tonushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01082528970434639776noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6300012139741038635.post-43223123244719595072010-05-03T13:58:30.542-07:002010-05-03T13:58:30.542-07:00In regards to the earlier comment (from... CS mayb...In regards to the earlier comment (from... CS maybe? I forgot who) about strikeouts not being a big deal because "they're just like any other out," I think that position is vastly overstated by some Sabermetric types. Yes, I understand that a strikeout is just like any other out in that it costs your team one of the 27 outs you get during the course of the game. And I'll even concede the point that in a sense striking out is good because it prevents you from hitting into a double play. I'm not saying guys like Mark Reynolds and Adam Dunn and Howard suck because they K a lot. But I don't want to downplay the value of putting the ball into play. Do so in many circumstances and you can create value even if you make an out- you can drive in runners with sac flies and groundouts (especially as a pull hitting lefty). You can "move runners," which is practically a vulgar term among Saberheads but does indeed create value for the team. And you can benefit from errors. Especially when you're the cleanup hitter for one of the best offenses in the game, I think you shouldn't strike out too much. By doing so you're missing out on a chance to help your team by putting the ball in play.Larry Bhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16141943214237719821noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6300012139741038635.post-76042112871574442312010-05-03T12:31:28.946-07:002010-05-03T12:31:28.946-07:00Also, WOW 5 of the greatest hitters in baseball hi...Also, WOW 5 of the greatest hitters in baseball history also had a lot of RBI's! 5 guys who did everything right on the baseball diamond also drove in runs? Way to not make any point whatsoever.JohnFhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09339402431610031589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6300012139741038635.post-34714270885015609612010-05-03T11:47:28.867-07:002010-05-03T11:47:28.867-07:00I do think this will probably turn into an albatro...I do think this will probably turn into an albatross for Philly by deal's end, but Howard has at least shown signs of trying to keep himself in shape. This isn't Cecil Fielder. Howard has slimmed down and worked on being more flexible, and while he's not going to make you think of Keith Hernandez at first (or even Derek Lee), at least he's no longer a guy whose best position is DH.<br />Unfortunately his Ks and troubles with lefthanded pitching are unlikely to improve. And he is a huge dude; guys his size fall off the map in the blink of an eye. David Ortiz is proving this right now.JohnFhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09339402431610031589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6300012139741038635.post-24324953489160127932010-05-03T10:38:07.280-07:002010-05-03T10:38:07.280-07:00I like that he "remarkably turned himself int...I like that he "remarkably turned himself into at least an average defensive first baseman" is considered a compliment.Dylanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02521399272029891606noreply@blogger.com